Weird & Funky Market Top Behavior. Mag7 Tipping Over. META Bear 600% ROC. System Stays Mechanical. | SPX Market Briefing | 5 Nov 2025

Let’s get into the meat of it. I’ve neglected the SPX Income System for a few days, but the reality is there are only so many ways to say the bearish breakout is still active and the system remains bearish and is doing its job properly despite the knee-knocking whipsaws.

The Lazy and Premium Poppers are popping premiums nicely and ticking over. So it’s just a case of being mechanical and not trying to bugger around too much in a currently weird market environment.

Which I’ve also mentioned during my live mastermind & 1-2-1 calls for my insiders groups as being similar to past market tops, prior to corrective moves, when you see weird and funky behavior.

This is also another reason why I’m taking a step back and focusing on the daily charts and the Mag7 for additional cross-market clues.

Uncle Russell (RTY) continues to lead the bear charge with ES now a close second after yesterday’s pop lower. YM is trying to find support at the prior NATH resistance around 47,200. NQ is now also back inside the established containment area and is challenging its breakout with the prior NATH resistance acting as support for all 3.

Overnight, we can see that the premarket has peekabooed below those levels, and we could be opening up with more thoughts of moving lower.

Clues on the Mag7 and Nasdaq – which has been propping the market up mostly with the AI hype.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Wednesday November delivers weird and funky market top behavior as bearish breakout remains active despite knee-knocking whipsaws, Uncle Russell leads bear charge with ES close second, YM finding support at 47,200, NQ back inside containment, whilst Mag7 leaders tip over (META bear 600% ROC, AMZN abandoned baby pattern, NVDA chart-gasm setup) and Premium/Lazy Poppers tick over mechanically without buggering around.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6791.00, close second to Uncle Russell in bear charge after yesterday’s pop lower

• RTY: 2439.7, leading bear charge as anticipated

• YM: 47,228, trying to find support at prior NATH resistance ~47,200

• NQ: 25,491.12, back inside established containment, challenging breakout

• CL: $60.87, still hovering above $60 target

• GC: $3979.3, continuing sideways stall

• VIX: 19.47, elevated maintaining tension

• 2yr Bonds: 3.560%

Only So Many Ways To Say “System Still Bearish”

Let’s get into the meat of it.

I’ve neglected the SPX Income System for a few days. Not because anything’s broken. Not because the system stopped working. But because there are only so many ways to say “the bearish breakout is still active and the system remains bearish and is doing its job properly.”

Despite the knee-knocking whipsaws.

This is the part where newer systematic traders struggle. The whipsaws test conviction. Markets don’t move in straight lines. Bearish breakouts don’t crash 5% daily for weeks. They grind. They whipsaw. They create doubt.

“Maybe the breakout failed?”
“Maybe we should switch to bullish?”
“Maybe the system’s wrong this time?”

The system isn’t wrong. The system is mechanical.

Bearish breakout still active. Targets not yet reached. Mechanical rules say stay bearish. So we stay bearish. Despite the knee-knocking whipsaws trying to shake us out.

This is literally what “systematic discipline” means. Following the rules when they’re uncomfortable. Executing mechanical positioning when emotions scream otherwise.

The Lazy and Premium Poppers are popping premiums nicely and ticking over. Collection continues. Theta erodes. 0-DTE opportunities develop. PopPop.

So it’s just a case of being mechanical and not trying to bugger around too much in a currently weird market environment.

When markets act weird, systematic traders don’t try to outsmart them. We execute mechanical rules. We collect premium where setups trigger. We wait for confirmation on larger positions. We don’t bugger around trying to predict what weirdness does next.

Current Status: Bearish breakout active despite whipsaws, system mechanical not emotional, Premium/Lazy Poppers ticking over, not buggering around

Weird & Funky Behavior – Similar To Past Market Tops

Which I’ve also mentioned during my live mastermind & 1-2-1 calls for my insiders groups: This current market environment is similar to past market tops, prior to corrective moves, when you see weird and funky behavior.

What does “weird and funky” mean?

Divergences intensifying:

• Mag7 propping entire market whilst breadth weakens

• Uncle Russell leading lower whilst Nasdaq holds higher

• Small-caps showing distribution whilst large-caps hesitate

• Leadership narrowing to handful of names

Whipsaw action increasing:

• Gaps that fill immediately

• Breakdowns that bounce

• Breakouts that fail

• Intraday reversals without clear catalysts

Technical patterns breaking down:

• Support levels cracking then recovering

• Resistance levels breaking then reversing

• Range boundaries becoming unreliable

• Volatility expansion without clear direction

This doesn’t mean “crash imminent.” It means the market’s showing topping behavior that I’ve seen several time prior to a corrective move. Distribution under the surface. Leadership exhaustion. Defensive positioning creeping in.

Past market tops before corrective moves showed similar patterns:

2007/08 November highs – multiple false breaks, breadth weakness, weird whipsaws for weeks before correction/crash
2018 March & Sept highs – Similar divergences, defensive rotation, weirdness before selloff(s)
2020 March highs – Tech leadership exhaustion, small-caps leading lower, funkiness before pullback

Not predicting crash. Not calling exact top. Just noting: The current environment rhymes with past topping patterns.

This is also another reason why I’m taking a step back and focusing on the daily charts and the Mag7 for additional cross-market clues.

When intraday action gets choppy and weird, zooming out to daily charts provides clarity. When index-level analysis gets muddied, examining individual Mag7 leaders reveals distribution patterns.

Current Status: Weird funky market environment similar to past tops, divergences intensifying, whipsaws increasing, focusing on daily charts and Mag7 clues

Uncle Russell Leads, ES Second, YM Support, NQ Contained

Uncle Russell (RTY) continues to lead the bear charge.

2439.7 and heading lower. Russell’s not hesitating anymore. Not standing around campfires. Leading the journey south with conviction.

ES now a close second after yesterday’s pop lower.

6791.00 – finally following Uncle Russell’s lead. Tuesday’s “off white” vindication continued Wednesday. Gap-down delivered. Bear positioning validated. ES joining the party.

YM is trying to find support at the prior NATH resistance around 47,200.

Current: 47,228. Barely holding above that key level. Prior resistance becomes support – classic technical pattern. But will it hold? Or will Dow follow Russell and ES south?

The premarket action suggests testing continues. Support isn’t guaranteed just because a level exists. Markets test. Markets probe. Markets break when selling pressure exceeds buying support.

NQ is now also back inside the established containment area and is challenging its breakout.

25,491.12 – Nasdaq back inside the box. The caffeinated cousin who was howling at the moon? Back inside containment. The prior NATH resistance acting as support for all 3 (YM, ES, NQ).

This is the critical juncture: All three major indexes testing prior resistance-turned-support simultaneously. Uncle Russell already broke through and is leading lower. Will the others follow?

Overnight, we can see that the premarket has peekabooed below those levels.

“Peekabooed” – perfect description. Not a decisive break. Just… peeking below. Testing. Probing. Seeing if support buyers show up or if sellers push through.

And we could be opening up with more thoughts of moving lower.

Gap-down potential round two. Tuesday delivered off white Tuesday. Wednesday might deliver “Weird Wednesday” with another gap testing support levels across all major indexes.

Systematic traders don’t predict which way the open resolves. We position for both scenarios. Gap holds support? Reversal setups ready. Gap breaks through? Bear continuation confirmed.

Current Status: Uncle Russell leading 2439.7, ES close second 6791, YM testing support 47,228, NQ back inside containment 25,491, premarket peekabooed below levels

Mag7 Tipping Over – AI Hype Prop Weakening

Clues on the Mag7 and Nasdaq – which has been propping the market up mostly with the AI hype.

This is where it gets interesting. The systematic approach to understanding market tops: Watch what’s been leading. When leaders weaken, the market follows.

Mag7 has been the leadership. AI infrastructure spending narrative. AWS growth. Cloud revenue. Nvidia chips. The entire bull case rested on these 7 names.

Now they’re tipping over. One by one. Or stalling. Or showing distribution patterns.

META was first to fall from grace.

Halloween massacre: -11% worst drop in 3 years on 2026 capex warning. That wasn’t a one-day anomaly. That was the market questioning the AI spending thesis.

My bear shorts discussed last week are looking very healthy and nudging at the 600% ROC level.

600%. Six times the purchase price. This is what happens when you position systematically for technical breakdown and fundamentals cooperate. The speculative bear from Monday’s group call? Spectacularly validated.

META currently around $628 (from images showing support zone). The bear positioning from $740-750 levels catching the entire move lower. Mechanical entry. Technical setup. Systematic execution. Now approaching 600% return on capital. – We’re only half way there!

This is the reward for taking technically-sound speculative positions when setup criteria trigger.

AMZN gap down at the open yesterday had the potential to create a rare “abandoned baby” pattern with a gap up and gap down.

Abandoned baby pattern: Rare candlestick formation showing dramatic reversal. Gap up (enthusiasm), then gap down (panic), creating “abandoned” candle in between with gaps both sides.

It’s there just looking at the closing pricing, but did fill the up and down “window” early in the morning closing below the lows.

So not a perfect abandoned baby. The gaps filled intraday. But the spirit of the pattern remains: Dramatic reversal. Gap enthusiasm followed by gap panic. Distribution signal.

I’ve taken a bear setup as a B- setup rather than the A+ setup I was hoping for.

This is systematic discipline in action. The pattern isn’t perfect (gaps filled = B- not A+). But the distribution signal is clear. So position accordingly. Not with A+ conviction. With B- conviction. Size accordingly. Manage risk accordingly.

Perfect setups get full position size. Imperfect setups get reduced size. This is how systematic traders manage risk without abandoning opportunities.

NVDA has this lovely tweezer top / bull horn / mini double top – (pick your favorite name) which I’m sure someone is losing their mind over with a little chart ‘gasm.

“Chart-gasm” – perfect description of pattern recognition obsession. Technical analysts see double tops and lose their minds. “It’s a tweezer! It’s a bull horn! It’s a mini double top! This confirms EVERYTHING!”

Calm down. It’s a potential reversal pattern at highs. Could work. Could fail. Manage risk either way.

I’ve taken a speculative punt on it prior to earnings.

Speculative = small position, defined risk, pre-earnings setup. NVDA reports earnings soon. Playing for potential topping pattern before earnings catalyst. Could work beautifully. Could get crushed by earnings beat.

This is the systematic approach: Take technically-sound speculative positions with appropriate sizing and risk management. Don’t bet the farm. Don’t ignore the setup either.

The other leaders are also starting to tip over or stall, so it will be interesting to see what the indexes do when they all align with each other again.

Apple, Google, Microsoft – all showing stalling patterns or distribution. When all 7 leaders align bearishly, the indexes will follow. Uncle Russell’s already leading. ES following. YM and NQ testing. Mag7 tipping.

The alignment is coming. That’s when the weird and funky behavior resolves into clear directional move.

Current Status: META bear 600% ROC from $740-750 entry, AMZN abandoned baby B- setup, NVDA chart-gasm speculative punt pre-earnings, other Mag7 leaders tipping/stalling, alignment approaching

Being Mechanical Not Buggering Around

So it’s just a case of being mechanical and not trying to bugger around too much in a currently weird market environment.

This sentence captures the entire systematic philosophy:

“Being mechanical” = Following the rules regardless of emotions, whipsaws, or weirdness

“Not trying to bugger around” = Don’t overtrade, don’t chase, don’t predict, don’t outsmart yourself

“Weird market environment” = Acknowledge reality without letting it derail discipline

When markets act weird, most traders:

• Overtrade trying to catch every move

• Chase setups that don’t quite trigger

• Predict what weirdness means

• Abandon systems for discretionary guessing

Systematic traders:

• Execute mechanical rules when criteria trigger

• Pass on imperfect setups (or size down like AMZN B-)

• Wait for alignment confirmation

• Trust the process through weirdness

The Lazy and Premium Poppers are popping premiums nicely and ticking over.

0-DTE collection continues. Volatility expansion creates opportunities. VIX at 19.47 means premium available. Mechanical entry criteria triggering. PopPop collection proceeding.

This is the advantage of multi-strategy approach: When swing trades are grinding through whipsaws, short-term premium collection keeps producing. When markets are weird and directional conviction is low, theta collection provides consistent income.

Bearish breakout still active. Targets not reached. System stays bearish. But Premium/Lazy Poppers don’t care about directional bias. They collect premium from volatility regardless.

Current Status: Mechanical execution maintained, not buggering around with overtrading, Premium/Lazy Poppers producing during weirdness, multi-strategy advantage clear

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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