Weeks on the Bear Drum, Nothing to Show. Now I Have to Plan for a Crash Upward.

While I have been banging the big bear drum for far too many weeks now with nothing to show for it, aka a big move in a short space of time, the lazy bears have been creeping in on the Dow and Russ again, which it did earlier in the year, which if this is all we get again there’s going to be a lot of bears squeezed if the October bull cycle pumps hard and fast, I’m reminded of the “Crash Upward” we saw last time this happened and to be honest I don’t want to get caught with my pants down again should that happen.

A crash upward is a crash in every respect except the direction, the victims and the tone of the coverage.

And I’m shaking my head at having to account for the crash upwards scenario, post lockdown a lot of things very much changed and that is one of them.

The last crash upwards was actually during the 2026 March bear window, right as the bear season closed in the market, April opened and woosh, 12-20% straight up depending on if you include the 2-4 pause bars before the next push, that’s literally what we would see in a bear move, 10-20% down in 10-15 days, this time we saw the exact opposite, and I can’t recall what triggered it, possibly something to do with the TACO trade nonsense we saw earlier in the year too.

For the record: 6,316 on 30 Mar to 7,147 on 17 Apr, 13% in 14 sessions, and 19% by the 14 May high. The reasons on offer at the time were a fragile US and Iran ceasefire and a strong earnings season.

But crash upwards has become a thing we need to watch out for.

Market Snapshot

S&P down small overnight but VIX leaping, and I mean unjustifiedly so, leaping a full point from the overnight VIX open.

Fear rose a full point overnight. Officials have been unable to locate the thing it is afraid of, and are urging the public to remain alarmed.

While price moves don’t justify the leap there is clearly still a lot of bear fears on the street.

Holding up the sky was, in the original, a punishment. Nobody has told the AI stocks.

Tech and AI stocks still pretending to be Atlas and lifting the S&P and Naz while something akin to reality can be seen on Dow and Russ.

• S&P 500 futures (ES): 7,763.75, -0.16%. Down small overnight.

• NazQuack (NQ): 30,973.75, -0.28%. Tech and AI still doing the lifting.

• Uncle Dow (YM): 51,412, -0.14%. Something akin to reality.

• Uncle Russ (RTY): 2,847.8, -0.14%. The same reality, with the lazy bears creeping in.

• VIX: 16.32, +6.67%. Closed at 15, opened at 16 and is now around 16.3.

• Crude Oil (CL): 90.59, -0.73%. Working out nicely, more below.

• Bitcoin: 85,909. I remain bullish throughout this grind, more below.

SPX – Firmly back inside the range.

Anyways, sticking with the price only theme on SPX and why it’s important to always keep an eye on price and not just the tools of the trade is that the range continues to hold, and we did attempt a push up and out last week on NFP but we are firmly back inside the range and a drop below 7700 will trigger the move down to 7660, range highs to range lows, and until we have a breakout confirmed that’s going to continue.

Keep an eye on price, not just the tools of the trade.

Crude Oil – A new pattern within a pattern.

Crude oil is working out nicely and reinforcing the choice to sell premium as the way to trade most things, this is a 25 year habit I had to break also in a post lockdown world, trading the setup on say futures or USO ETF directionally I’d be sighing and rolling my eyes at a trade going nowhere or possibly having been stopped out and looking for a re-entry, but the premium selling locked in a nice profit through what’s turning out to be a new pattern within a pattern, generally it’s still bullish at range lows and lots of ways to profit from the premiums.

My 25+ year habit was to be always directional in a more traditional trading way, buying stocks, futures, forex or selling short, these days I’m selling premium 99% of the time so while a directional move will speed up my payout I will also get paid if we grind sideways or move in the opposite direction to the trade as we are seeing currently in oil.

Directional trading is 100% of movement to get paid, selling premium I just need to not be wrong in a big way and even then I can still often get paid.

Still bullish at range lows, and lots of ways to profit from the premiums.

Bitcoin – Small range widening and turning into a larger range.

Bitcoin is building. Nobody has seen the plans, and the last build on this site took 4 to 6 weeks.

BTC consolidation / pause is also evolving, something that we also looked at last week, small range widening and turning into a larger range with new information, I just hope we don’t see 4-6 weeks of chop n slop like last time before the eventual next leg of the move higher, despite it all I remain bullish throughout this grind and I’m not really seeing much anywhere else, that doesn’t mean to say there are not other opportunities for the lower time frame trades as prices are jumping around still on a day to day basis, the 4hr is building a nice base for the next jump.

I remain bullish throughout this grind.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Want to trade ‘OPM’ ?

Don’t risk your own capital.... Get funded to trade 0DTE and other options strategies...

Click HERE to discover your funding options