Triple Witching Friday: Trillions in Exposure Vanish Today | SPX Market Briefing | 19 Sep 2025

It’s Friday. It’s triple witching. And here we are with huge bullish GEX expiration today, which brings up my big question: with the trillions in exposure that go away today and the subsequent hedges that stop propping this market up – are we finally going to see some real moves unfold, up or down for that matter?

Will volatility start to widen, and can we see more than a 50-point ATR again? These are the questions that matter when market structure shifts underneath while everyone’s watching the pretty charts.

That aside, the bulls are still bulling, the system is doing its thing, and we now await what comes next with mechanical precision.

I remain bullish from 6560, and the new bull trigger on this recent breakout is to stay bullish above 6633. I remain bullish until the breakout target is reached at 6679 OR we break back into the range below 6611.

SPX Market Briefing:

Today marks the moment when artificial market support potentially evaporates, revealing what’s really underneath this grinding rally.

Current Systematic Status:

• SPX: Bullish from 6560, new bull trigger above 6633 active

• Breakout Target: 6679 upside target vs 6611 range re-entry downside

• GEX Expiration: Massive bullish exposure rolling off today

• Volatility Potential: First real opportunity for >50 point ATR in weeks

The Trillion-Dollar Question:

Triple witching Friday brings the moment of truth. With trillions in bullish GEX exposure expiring today, the hedges that have been propping up this market structure disappear. This isn’t just another options expiry – it’s potentially the removal of the training wheels that have kept volatility compressed.

The systematic question becomes: when dealer hedges stop providing artificial support, does the market reveal genuine strength or underlying weakness? Either outcome creates opportunities for mechanical approaches.

Mechanical Positioning Reality:

The bulls are still bulling with systematic precision. The 6560 level that triggered weeks ago continues working beautifully. The recent breakout above previous resistance has created a new bull trigger level at 6633 – stay above this level and the bullish momentum continues.

The beauty of mechanical trading? It doesn’t matter whether volatility expands from hedge removal or contracts from new positioning. The system adapts to whatever market structure emerges.

Today’s Range Definition:

• Upside Target: 6679 (breakout completion)

• Bull Trigger: Stay above 6633 (new breakout level)

• Range Re-entry: Below 6611 (back into previous consolidation)

The Volatility Question:

Can we finally see more than a 50-point ATR again? The compressed volatility environment has been artificially maintained by the massive options positioning that expires today. When those hedges disappear, genuine price discovery returns.

Today’s Systematic Plan:

• Pre-Market: Monitor overnight levels relative to 6633 bull trigger

• Opening Bell: Deploy Premium and Lazy Poppers as volatility potentially expands

• Intraday: Watch for breakout continuation to 6679 or range failure below 6611

• Close: Assess new market structure post-expiration for next week’s approach

All fun and games in the mechanical world of trading while market structure shifts underneath our systematic positioning.

Fun Fact: Stock Market Correction: Financial Speak for “Oops!”

A stock market “correction” is Wall Street’s polite way of saying “Well, that was embarrassing.”

When the market drops 10-20% from recent highs, traders don’t say “Holy cow, we messed up!” Instead, they calmly call it a “correction”-as if the market just realized it had spinach in its teeth and needed to fix itself in the mirror.

It’s the financial equivalent of calling a car crash a “sudden vehicular readjustment.”

The term suggests the market was wrong before and is now graciously fixing its mistake, like a professor correcting an error on the blackboard.

In reality, corrections often happen because investors suddenly remember that trees don’t grow to the sky and that what goes up usually comes down (thanks, gravity!).

But calling it a “correction” sounds so much more dignified than “panic sell-off” or “reality check.” It’s like wearing a tuxedo while getting dunked in a lake-you’re still soaking wet, but at least you look classy!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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