Triangle Trapped | SPX Market Briefing | 21 Oct 2025

SPX Market Briefing:

The Expanding Triangle Prison

Starting with my snap market view: the usual 4 indexes remain in a developing expanding triangle type of pattern with prices near the upper boundary level. Since no breakout looks imminent, I would have to presume that the bear side of the ledger will have more pull and send us back to the pattern lows again.

Classic “trapped near the top with nowhere to go but down” setup developing nicely.

Gold’s Institutional Shenanigans

Gold continues to rip – although we’re seeing that delightful up-a-day-down-a-day pattern that looks to me like a little bit of institutional shenanigans ahead of the next big move.

The question is: will it be boom to the moon again or something more corrective? Someone with deep pockets is clearly positioning for something significant, and I’d quite like to know which direction they’re leaning.

VIX Gaslights the Bears

VIX appears to be signaling that the crash is cancelled – take your fear premium and go home, nothing to see here. But there’s still a small amount of elevation to keep the bears guessing or second-guessing themselves.

Classic market psychology torture chamber where nobody’s quite confident enough to commit fully either direction.

SPX Bearish Tag ‘n Turn at Crime Scene

Over on my usual timeframe playground, SPX has signaled another Tag ‘n Turn – this time bearish, and interestingly right at the spot of that previously BIG Friday sell-off that had us all worried about crash season acceleration.

Will we see the same speed of movement again, or will we see another new all-time high push from here? The setup’s there. Now we wait to see if history rhymes or the market decides to write new poetry entirely.

Uncle Rus Dragging His Feet

Uncle Rus (RUT) is dragging its feet by comparison. Having already popped a new all-time high prior to the big sell-off, this is looking more like a lower high development inside the larger volatility pattern.

It’s so far not giving any warning signs, and there’s a nice tight PFZ to flip back to bearish should we see the sell-off unfold properly. Patience required here whilst we wait for proper confirmation.

System Doing Its Job

All in all – the system is doing what it’s supposed to be doing and highlighting the turns and the moves quite nicely.

Mechanical precision continues working independently, even when life throws proper curveballs at the systematic trader.

Fun Fact:

The Fed’s Ultimate Insurance Policy

The “Fed Put” sounds like a golf term, but it’s actually Wall Street’s favourite get-out-of-jail-free card!

This cheeky term refers to the Federal Reserve’s perceived promise to swoop in and save the markets whenever things get ugly. Named after a “put option” (which lets you sell stocks at a set price as insurance), the “Fed Put” was born during Alan Greenspan’s tenure as Fed Chair.

After the 1987 Black Monday crash, Greenspan issued a one-sentence statement basically saying “Don’t panic, we’ve got this” and then slashed interest rates. Markets loved it so much they started expecting Fed rescues every time stocks sneezed!

It’s like having a parent who always bails you out of trouble—eventually you start taking bigger risks because you know they’ll catch you. Critics say it creates “moral hazard” where investors gamble recklessly, knowing the Fed will probably save them.

Hey, if someone promised to cover your casino losses, you’d probably bet bigger too!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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