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- The House of Cards Is Crumbling. It Just Won’t Tumble.
The House of Cards Is Crumbling. It Just Won’t Tumble.
The SPX V-pattern has quietly become a range. The textbooks didn’t mention that.
T2 Markets
September 30, 2026
The stock index frustration continues, and the why aren’t we seeing a crash question continues. The number of stocks above their 200 is the lowest since April, the seasonality is on our side, and my sanity continues to crumble with the S&P and NazQuack holding near new all time highs.
Anyway, we have until the middle of October and then there is the cyclical best bull period, and the best ones have come after a Sept/Oct tumble, so who knows?
One pattern has changed its name, Bitcoin is taking the scenic route, and the Poppers are still paying. Scroll down.
Market Snapshot – Crumbling, just not tumbling.
Now in fairness, the Russell is off 8.1% or thereabouts since the August new all time high, over around 31 trading sessions. The Dow is off around 6% over the same time, so the house of cards is crumbling, it’s just not tumbling. In other words, that fast move in a short space of time.
Experts confirm 2 of America’s 4 major stock indexes are now held aloft by a handful of AI stocks and a strongly worded press release.
Given that 2 of the 4 stock indexes are being propped up by a small number of AI stocks, when that gas is out of fuel this could turn nasty quickly.
SPX & RUT – Price patterns evolve and can be something else entirely.
The system remains technically flat, and as price evolves and mutates into newly named patterns, we can see the V-pattern I previously spoke about mutate into a consolidation.
Chart patterns left unsupervised will eventually become something else. This one has become a range, and seems perfectly happy about it.
This is the bit they don’t tell you in the textbooks. With new information, price patterns evolve and can be something else entirely. In this case the reversal V-pattern turns into the range, currently at the range lows, so turn to the highs or break through the lows.
Technically flat, at the range lows.
Bitcoin – Holding fast.
BTC is holding fast as the low volume retracement continues to meander. The bull remains active.
Breadth – The Atlas stock phenomenon.
The S&P now rests on the shoulders of a few AI stocks. Nobody has yet asked what they’re standing on.
The number of stocks below the 200 MA is now at 57%, the most it’s been since April. New lows there could mean the faux rally has got too heavy to keep being held up by the Atlas stock phenomenon.
57% below the 200.
Despite it all, the Premium Poppers are pulling premiums again, SPX and RUT for me.
Max profit with no transformer on SPX, mainly due to a greedy target again, but nonetheless still profitable.
RUT gave me 2 setups, both transformed and just landing inside my profit tent for some bonus profits. I also ran with a low risk big ass spread for a little lotto ticket trade, which was looking good but never produced with that turnaround move.
The lotto ticket did what lotto tickets have done since 1994.
Such is the way of things.
More importantly, the community once again are pulling premiums left, right and centre. Well done.
James D.: “Win on the pre-market SPX and the SPX popper but a loss by a whisker on the RUT popper.” Later: “RUT PP Bear win already at around 45%.”
Don E.: “Closed RUT BO1 for 45%.” Then: “Closed SPX LP for 45%.”
Scott K.: “SPX BO1, Bear entry, BUT…due to fat fingers I ended up with 4 credit spreads and 2 bull spreads to offset. To uncomplicate everything I closed all the trades and ended up $240 ahead. Definitely good luck, not good trade management!”
Scott K. opened 6 spreads where 2 were intended and has, in keeping with industry tradition, been promoted to Head of Risk.
The Bob Ross Trade, nice little happy accident.
vinsonfields: “Completed my first trade with your system today. In and out in 41 min. Closed at 47%. Not sure if it was a Premium Popper or Lazy Popper but it worked out nicely.”
ehvpsd: “Nice 50% winners on both SPX and RUT.”
Nice and easy day. Well done team.
Meme of the Day:
Trade well,
T2 Markets
p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!
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