The Dow Leads A Very Small Charge Lower, And $415 Gets Locked In

Wednesday already, in another not very exciting shortened week.

The bear moves continued on the IB break, as we thought in the morning analysis briefing.

Market Snapshot

The market has again declined to move dramatically in either direction, and has asked that it not be pressed further on the matter.

• SPX 7,673.52, down 45.08 (0.58%). Still ranging, still in bear mode. Full read below.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,750, down 58 (0.11%). Looks to be leading the charge lower.

• ES 7,679.75, up 1.50 (0.02%). Barely there.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,960.1, down 2.1 (0.07%). Also barely there.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,549.25. No read today.

• Gold 4,445.6, up 45.6 (1.04%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 94.68, up 0.43 (0.46%). No read today.

• BTC 79,627.86. No read today.

The Dow looks to be leading the charge lower, with still a tiny 0.11% to be seen, which is still bigger than the ES at 0.02% and RTY at 0.07%. There is often a leader and a laggard in these moves, so that is an estimated guess on my part, and as I’m biased to the bear side I’m seeing YM futures out in front as a good thing.

Overall these moves are super tight still, and I will be enjoying the day we get these markets opening up for more than a day.

VIX 15.87, up 0.16 (1.02%).

VIX, my weathercock, remains elevated, and I’m keeping my eye on 16 again.

Seasonality

Thinking back to last week’s Stock Trader’s Almanac notes about the first half of the month being historically flat to bullish, and as we come towards the middle of the month, the slow roll over to a fast bear could be starting. Fingers crossed.

SPX and RUT – Still in a range, and still in bear mode.

SPX and RUT swings remain in a range and in bear mode, so nothing new to report here.

The Premium Poppers

Not reported on for a day or three, and seeing another good day.

I was once again enjoying a little early premarket entry, using the futures to trigger my cash entry on the global exchange, which transformed fast.

Then the usual 1st BO and a VWAP retest. Both inconvenienced by being mistimed in this intraday sloppy market, but with an eye for transforming them, just a little patience is needed.

$415 locked in. Two profit targets, had they landed, at $915 and $1,420.

Wall of Wins

And of course, as usual, the community is popping those wins too.

• Ross M. A real quick bang to start the week, looking for whatever shapes bearish today. Closed a short on MES1! at 7,694.00 from an average of 7,714.25, for +$101.25 realised.

• RJ M. Ended up scalping the SPX trigger, not liking this bounce, plus only half size, plus at the shop just trying to get the computer going.

• Bill H. Ditto. Win’s a win, took 35%.

• Zach. Took the SPX ORB20 win. Has yet to incorporate the butterfly.

• Don E. Lose one, win one. Manual exit on the SPX bear when price closed above VWAP, for a small loss. Won the RUT LP Bull BO for 40%. Sets RUT close orders more conservatively, because RUT sometimes doesn’t honour limit and stop orders.

Ross, love it, awesome work. Looks like that was right off the premarket highs too. Classic range reversal setup.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

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