The Bear That Finally Showed Up, Maybe

Day 2 of show me the bear. Pre-market shows the moves already pushing below prior day’s low – and not just by a tick or two. Is the Almanac stat going to come to fruition this week? NFP on the horizon could be the catalyst (as usual) that sets the tone for the month.

SPX TnT swing – the bull momentum has finally exhausted and we are seeing the %R extreme flip from bullish to bearish, with the MACD-v showing increased bear momentum. The big question is – will it continue, or are we just going to see 1-2 bear days before the bulls wrestle control again? For the moment, the bear break down and swing is finally on.

RUT back below the range lows noted previously. Given the range, I shall do what I normally do and wait for the breakout target to be reached before resuming mechanical Tag ‘n Turn setups.

BTC – woot woot – on a tear and into the target zone marked on the charts given the big 60k round number. I’d expect a little bounce on profit-taking before anything else. We still have a really big target down at 50k from the Elliott Wave assessment made.

Overall – I may just get my neutral-to-bearish week still. Well done, stats.

Market Briefing:

Thursday 4 June – the day after the day Wall Street finally noticed there were five screens. The S&P 500 dropped 0.74% Wednesday. The Dow shed 620 points. The Russell 2000 fell 1.25%. The nine-day winning streak, the longest since 2023, expired quietly. The Almanac stat the desk had politely been carrying for sixty-four days has, statistically and finally, arrived.

• Wednesday closed: SPX 7,553.68 -0.74% / Dow 50,961 -620 / Russell 2,871.45 -1.25% / 9-day winning streak snapped

• After the bell: Broadcom posted a beat and fell 13% on an AI forecast it pointedly declined to raise. CrowdStrike posted a beat and fell 10% on light guidance. The two earnings hired to confirm the AI rally turned up and resigned on the spot.

• Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5m, its first sale since 2022. The never-sell firm sold. Analysts have explained that this was always the plan.

• Brent reached $97.60 before easing / WTI held above $95 (the level I was waiting for) / US struck an Iranian tanker / Iran hit Kuwait’s airport / yields climbed / dollar bid

• Spot BTC ETFs bled 11 straight sessions, around $3.4bn gone. Forced liquidations $1.8bn in a day, mostly longs

• Friday brings May Non-Farm Payrolls, the last data print before Warsh’s first FOMC on June 17

Market Snapshot

• ES: 7,545.50 / -31.00 (-0.43%) / NATHs 7,632.25 / red follow-through

• YM: 50,961 / +201 (+0.40%) / NATHs 51,443 / Dow showing rotation strength after the -620 reset

• NQ: 30,389.25 / -105.75 (-0.35%) / NATHs 30,785 / Nazquack still soft

• RTY: 2,903.20 / +11.90 (+0.41%) / NATHs 2,952.00 / Uncle Russ overnight bounce after the range-low break

• GC: 4,490.40 / +27.70 (+0.62%) / haven bid back

• CL: 94.99 / -1.21 (-1.26%) / pulled back to 95 – the party invite I was waiting for

• VIX: 16.40 / +0.35 (+2.18%) / year low 13.38 quietly forgotten

• BTC: 63,376.86 / -663.14 (-1.04%) / inside the 60k target zone

Tag ‘n Turn

SPX bear swing finally on – %R extreme flipped bullish to bearish, MACD-v bear momentum increasing. RUT back below the range lows, swing win logged if we stay. BTC in the 60k target zone, bounce expected before the 50k Elliott Wave count. Oil pulled back to 95.

Four different reads on four different charts, and for the first time in sixty-four days the cleanest read on the board is the one selling. The big question is whether the bulls wrestle control back in the next 1-2 sessions or whether the proper reset I’ve been calling for finally prints. The talking heads describing the rally are now describing the sell-off with the same fluency and an entirely new set of reasons.

SPX Analysis

SPX TnT swing – bull momentum finally exhausted. %R extreme flipped bullish to bearish. MACD-v showing increased bear momentum. Question is whether continuation or 1-2 bear days before bulls wrestle back. Bear break down and swing finally on. NATHs 7,620.90. 30-min close 7,553.67.

SPX TnT swing – the bull momentum has finally exhausted, and we are seeing the %R extreme flip from bullish to bearish, with the MACD-v showing increased bear momentum.

The big question is – will it continue, or are we just going to see 1-2 bear days before the bulls wrestle control again?

For the moment, the bear break down and swing is finally on.

Current Status: Bear swing finally on / %R extreme flipped bullish-to-bearish / MACD-v bear momentum increasing

Gamma Exposure

Gamma flip lifted significantly to 7,423.30 (from 6,863.53 prior session). Put wall 7,400. Call wall 7,600. IV 13.46%. IV Percentile 41%.

The gamma flip has lifted to 7,423.30 with cash at 7,553.68 – the cushion between price and the flip has compressed materially compared to the prior session. Put wall at 7,400. Call wall at 7,600.

IV at 13.46% against historic 9.66%, with IV Rank 17.85% and IV Percentile 41%.

Current Status: Flip 7,423.30 / Put Wall 7,400 / Call Wall 7,600

RUT Analysis

RUT back below the range lows. Already bearish, holding swing – first swing win of the month logged if we stay here today. Can also reload the swing. Given the range, wait for the breakout target before resuming mechanical Tag ‘n Turn. NATHs 2,942.41. Daily close 2,871.45.

RUT back below the range lows noted previously.

Given the range, I shall do what I normally do and wait for the breakout target to be reached before resuming mechanical Tag ‘n Turn setups.

Current Status: Range lows broken / bearish swing holding / first swing win of June logging today / swing reload available / waiting for breakout target before next mechanical setup

BTC Analysis

BTC into the target zone marked on the charts. Big 60k round number reached. Little bounce on profit-taking expected before next leg. Still have a really big target down at 50k from the Elliott Wave count made on Monday’s calls.

BTC – woot woot.

On a tear, and into the target zone marked on the charts given the big 60k round number.

I’d expect a little bounce on profit-taking before anything else.

We still have a really big target down at 50k from the Elliott Wave assessment made on Monday’s calls.

The 4hr chart confirms the descent from the daily range highs near 82,000 has now carried through the Smaller Range Breakout Target at 70,000 and into the Larger Range Breakout Target zone at 60,000 visible on both daily and 4hr. Current 63,376. The Bear Entry annotation at 76,385 and Stop Loss at 77,834.55 sit well above. The bounce setup is the corrective move back toward 70k before the next leg toward the 50k Elliott Wave target.

Current Status: 60k target zone reached / bounce on profit-taking expected next / 50k Elliott Wave target below / current 63,376 / Bear Entry 76,385 (well above) / Smaller Range Breakout 70,000 passed

CL (Oil) Analysis

Pullback to 95 has printed. The party invite I was waiting for is at the door. Current 94.99.

My note yesterday: oil pushing back into the prior range, an intraday pullback to 95 would be great to join the party.

The pullback to 95 has printed overnight. WTI now at 94.99, down -1.26% from the 97.18 high.

Current Status: 95 party invite reached / current 94.99 / inside the prior channel

Rounding Off

The Bill Arrived With Interest. Wall Street finished Wednesday by reading four headlines it had spent a fortnight refusing to open. The S&P 500 fell 0.74%. The Dow shed 620 points. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.25%. The nine-day winning streak – the longest since 2023 – expired quietly. Brent reached $97.60 before easing. WTI held above $95, which is roughly where I’d been waiting for the party invite. After the close, Broadcom posted a beat and fell 13% on an AI forecast it pointedly declined to raise. CrowdStrike posted a beat and fell 10% on light guidance. The two reports summoned to confirm the AI rally arrived and resigned on the spot. Strategy, the firm that vowed never to sell, sold thirty-two Bitcoin. Analysts have insisted it was always the plan, which is precisely what one says after selling. The peace trade, it emerged, had been pricing a peace that had never arrived.

What The System Just Said. Day 65 finally produced what the Almanac was tracking all along. SPX bear swing finally on – %R extreme flipped bullish to bearish, MACD-v showing increased bear momentum. RUT back below the range lows, first swing win of the month logged if we hold the level today. BTC into the 60k target zone marked on Monday’s chart, bounce expected on profit-taking before the 50k Elliott Wave count plays. Oil pulled back to 95 – the party invite is at the door. The big question now: 1-2 bear days before the bulls wrestle back, or the real reversal? NFP Friday will tip the tone of June. Trade small. Keep the system. Well done, stats.

Expert Insights

I’ve been calling for a pause for sixty-four days. The 9-week winning streak just printed was the strongest in the data set going back to 1930. The Stock Trader’s Almanac had quietly placed the historical post-streak statistics on the desk of nobody in particular. The historical one-week average was -0.84%. The median was -0.91%. Only 31% of prior occurrences continued higher in the week immediately following. Wednesday produced -0.74%, which is, within rounding, exactly the average.

Buffett’s line is not glamorous. It is, however, the bookkeeping. Patience for sixty-four days produced my first swing win of June at the RUT range low. Patience produced the SPX bear-swing entry on the %R flip. Patience produced the BTC 60k target zone. Patience produced the oil pullback to 95. My job was to sit on the watch-lists and let the chart print the entry. Sitting on hands has, this week, paid the bill.

The talking heads who described the rally for sixty-four days are now describing the sell-off with the same conviction. The Almanac, having published its data on Monday, takes no view on which side wins next.

[Source: Warren Buffett, widely attributed across Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting transcripts and shareholder letters, public]

Fun Fact:

The “long-dead Mt. Gox” mentioned in Wednesday’s news copy – which moved 10,422 Bitcoin worth $739 million on 2 June – is the largest financial loss in cryptocurrency history by coin count. The Tokyo-based exchange, which at its 2013 peak handled approximately 70% of all global Bitcoin transactions, filed for bankruptcy in February 2014 after losing ~850,000 Bitcoin to a long-running hack that had been depleting customer funds for years.

In 2014 those 850,000 coins were worth approximately $450 million. At Wednesday’s intraday low of $65,710, the same 850,000 coins would be worth approximately $55.8 billion – a hundred-and-twenty-four-fold increase in the value of the loss across a decade of holding nothing.

After more than nine years of Japanese bankruptcy proceedings, civil rehabilitation, and creditor litigation, Mt. Gox’s trustee began distributing approximately 200,000 recovered Bitcoin to former customers in 2023. Those distributions remain ongoing in 2026, with each significant on-chain movement closely watched by markets for its potential price impact.

The news copy line “even ghosts rebalance” refers to this: Mt. Gox no longer exists as a functioning business, but its bankruptcy estate continues to move coins on the chain like a particularly slow-moving specter with a fiduciary duty.

[Sources: Mt. Gox Bankruptcy and Civil Rehabilitation court filings (Tokyo District Court);
on-chain transaction records via standard blockchain explorers;
widely reported in financial press; public]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

p.p.s. Want funding to DAY TRADE our options strategies? Discover how you can start trading with up to $250k of RISK FREE capital!