The ATH Is In. The Momentum Is Stalling. Two Kicked Poppers. Tuesday Is The Binary.

The ATH is in.

SPX 7,041.28. New record. The crash up delivered what it said it would deliver. The tape measure on the desk is now redundant.

Now. The 30-minute chart has developed what I can only describe as Gozer the Destroyer. Also known as Gozer the Gozerian, Gozer the Destructor, Gozer the Traveller, Volguus Zildrohar, and Lord of the Seaboullia… I zoned out there for a moment. Thought we were about to see cats and dogs living together.

I mean a small consolidation.

As we’ve noted repeatedly during this crash up — the MACD-v at bullish extreme in this configuration is suggestive of continuation over reversal. These setups have been stacking on top of each other throughout the move. The bear TnT that’s appearing on the 30-minute I’d expect to be short-lived. But the BB is exceptionally tight and any move lower, if we get one, should trigger a fresh bull TnT setup. So the signal changes quickly either way.

On the poppers — we took a rare double kick in the shins Thursday. Both classic setups. Both hit their stops. This type of behavior at NATHs is worth noting. Sloppy setups at all-time highs have historically preceded either a pause or a top. Not a prediction — a flag.

The defined loss is defined. The system worked as designed. Move on.

GEX is pointing at 7,050 as the key level for today and the rest of the week. Little support below 7,000. Into a ceasefire-Tuesday weekend. The rally has delivered the ATH and is now waiting for Tuesday to tell it what happens next.

Market Briefing:

Friday 17 Apr.

• Thursday close: SPX 7,041.28 (+0.26%) — new ATH confirmed / Nasdaq 24,102.70 (+0.36%) — 12th consecutive up session, longest streak since 2009 / Dow 48,578.72 (+0.24%)

• Friday pre-market: S&P futures above 7,045 / Nasdaq futures at fresh highs / Dow flat

• 30-minute SPX: small consolidation developing at the highs / BB exceptionally tight / bear TnT appearing / MACD-v at bullish extreme = continuation signal — bear TnT expected short-lived

• GEX: 7,050 is the dominant level for today and the week / little gamma support below 7,000 / grind and consolidate into close is the base case

• Ceasefire expires Tuesday / Trump phoned Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun Thursday / first Israel-Lebanon direct talks in 34 years / Vance: “ball is in Iran’s court”

• Hormuz blockade still active / WTI $91.42 / Brent mid-$90s / AAA gas $4.108 / stagflation risk intact

• Fed frozen at 3.50-3.75% / Polymarket: 34% odds of zero cuts this year, up from 10% pre-war / Powell term expires May 15

• Initial claims: 207K vs 215K estimate — beat / continuing claims 1.82M

• Earnings: PepsiCo beat top and bottom / BNY Mellon +1.3% / FactSet pencils S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth at 12.5% — sixth straight double-digit quarter

• BTC below $75K / Ethereum $2,350 / $186M into BTC ETF funds Wednesday / ETH outperforming BTC by 4 points on the week

• Thursday poppers: both hit stop loss — double kick in the shins — classic setups, sloppy at NATHs

Market Snapshot

• ES: 7,045+ / Friday pre-market / NATHs

• YM: 48,578 / Dow NATH still at 50,611 — the hill remains

• NQ: Fresh highs / 12-day streak intact

• RTY: Approaching NATHs / tighter and cleaner than SPX

• GC: $4,812 / -0.77% / risk-on easing the bid

• CL: $91.42 WTI / Hormuz blockade active / Brent mid-$90s

• VIX: 18.17 / muted / ceasefire Tuesday not yet priced as a risk

• BTC: Below $75K / consolidating / ETH outperforming on the week

Tag ‘n Turn

SPX: Bear TnT appearing on the 30-minute. Expected to be short-lived. MACD-v extreme says continuation — not reversal.

RUT: Similar picture. Tighter and cleaner. Approaching NATHs. The same read applies.

The crash up has delivered the ATH. The 30-minute chart is now showing a small consolidation — BB exceptionally tight, bear TnT signal developing. This configuration — MACD-v at bullish extreme plus a BB pinch at NATHs — is the same stacking pattern seen repeatedly during the move from 6,400. Any move lower from here should trigger a fresh bull TnT setup quickly given how tight the bands are. The bear signal is noted. The expectation is that it does not hold.

The failed popper setups Thursday are the additional flag. Sloppy setups at NATHs warrant attention. Not a call — a note.

SPX Analysis

Bearish TnT appearing on 30-minute. MACD-v at bullish extreme — same configuration seen stacking throughout the crash up. BB exceptionally tight. Bear signal expected short-lived.

The daily sequence delivered the ATH at 7,041.28 Thursday. The cash index has now closed above the previous ATH at 7,026.24. On the 30-minute, a small consolidation has formed at the highs. The BB bands are exceptionally tight — the tightest seen during this crash-up sequence. In this configuration, any directional move is amplified. A move lower triggers a new bull TnT quickly. A move higher clears the GEX level at 7,050.

The MACD-v at bullish extreme has been the anchor of the continuation read throughout this move. It has not changed. The bear TnT is a note, not a directive.

The sloppy popper setups Thursday — both hitting stops — add texture to the picture at NATHs. Not a signal reversal. A flag worth carrying.

Current Status: Bearish TnT (short-lived expected) / MACD-v extreme / BB exceptionally tight / ATH 7,041.28 confirmed / GEX 7,050 next level / little support below 7,000

Gamma Exposure

7,050 is the dominant level for today and the week. Little gamma support below 7,000. Into a ceasefire Tuesday weekend, the GEX picture is thin on the downside.

With the ATH hit at 7,041.28, the gamma concentration has shifted. 7,050 is the next meaningful level with notable exposure. Below 7,000, the GEX picture is sparse — if the market tests lower, there is not the same mechanical bid that existed when 7,000 was the dominant positive gamma node. The flip point at 6,438 remains the structural floor below.

The base case for today: grind and consolidate in a tight range around 7,041-7,050. Low volatility into the close. VIX at 18.17 is consistent with this. The market is waiting for Tuesday.

RUT Analysis

Approaching NATHs. Tighter and cleaner than SPX. Same consolidation picture. Same MACD-v read. Russell is still queuing but the queue is short.

RUT is showing a similar consolidation to SPX at the 30-minute level but the pattern is tighter and the setup is cleaner. The approach to NATHs is orderly. The MACD-v read is the same — bullish extreme, continuation signal. Any bear TnT on RUT in this configuration carries the same expectation of brevity.

Dow is still below its NATH at 50,611. Full four-index NATH alignment is not yet in place. RUT is closer than the Dow.

Current Status: Approaching NATHs / tight consolidation / MACD-v bullish extreme / Dow still has further to travel

Post Trade DeBriefing

Two trades Thursday. Both hit their stops. A rare double kick in the shins.

Trade 1: Classic setup, 1st BO. The setup was there. The execution was clean. The trade did not cooperate. Stop loss hit at maximum defined loss. -93.5% ROC.

Trade 2: Classic setup, 3rd BO. Same story. Stop hit. Maximum defined loss taken. -100% ROC.

Both losses were contained. Both were defined before entry. The system worked exactly as designed — the stop is the stop, the loss is the loss, and the account lives to trade again on Monday.

The note worth carrying: sloppy classic setups at NATHs. When the bread-and-butter setups start failing at all-time highs, the market is sending a signal worth filing. Not a reversal call. A flag.

Rounding Off

The Nasdaq streak. Twelve consecutive positive sessions. The longest winning streak since 2009. That is not a small achievement for an index that was at correction territory five weeks ago. The war-era fear has unwound at a speed that continues to surprise. Week gains: S&P +3.3%, Nasdaq +5.2%, Dow +1%.

Tuesday. Ceasefire expires. Trump phoned Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun Thursday — first Israel-Lebanon direct talks in 34 years. Vance described the ball as being in Iran’s court. A second round of talks reportedly this week. Binary outcome: deal or escalation. The market is currently pricing the former. VIX at 18.17 into this weekend says the market is not afraid of Tuesday. That is either correct or it is complacent. Tuesday will settle the question.

The Fed. Powell stays parked at 3.50-3.75%. Polymarket now pricing 34% odds of zero cuts this year, up from 10% before the war began. Powell’s term expires May 15. The stagflation read — oil shock above, Fed frozen, GDP slowing — is the macro backdrop the market is choosing to ignore while it makes new all-time highs.

BTC. Below $75K. ETH outperforming Bitcoin by 4 points on the week. $186M into BTC ETF funds Wednesday — fifth straight day of ETH inflows. The break above $76K that would trigger a full reassessment has not arrived. Base case remains range until something new develops.

Current Status: ATH 7,041.28 confirmed / 30-min consolidation / BB tight / GEX 7,050 next / ceasefire Tuesday / Fed frozen / BTC below $75K

Expert Insights

Two popper stops hit Thursday. Maximum defined loss on both. Neither was a surprise — the stop was set, the stop was hit, the loss was taken. That is the system working exactly as it is supposed to work.

The stops are not the failure. The stops are the point. They define what a bad day costs. They keep the account intact for Monday. They are the reason a double kick in the shins on a Thursday does not become a crisis.

The sloppy setups at NATHs are noted. The losses are filed. The process continues.

[Source: Bruce Kovner — Market Wizards by Jack Schwager (1989), Simon & Schuster, public |
FactSet Q1 earnings research, April 2026, public |
Polymarket Fed rate probability data, public, April 2026]

1 – The Nasdaq’s 12 consecutive positive sessions represents the longest winning streak since January 2009, when the index logged 14 straight up days during a bear market relief rally. [Source: Bloomberg historical index data, public | CNBC markets historical data, April 2026, public]. The 2009 streak occurred during a confirmed bear market and did not mark a durable low — it occurred approximately six weeks before the final bottom. The current streak is occurring against a confirmed ATH print with a live geopolitical binary expiring in four days. These are not equivalent contexts. The distinction matters. It is on page 4.

2 – The BB pinch at NATHs in the current configuration has historically resolved with a directional break of approximately 1.2 to 1.8 ATR within two to five sessions in the majority of backtested cases. [Source: internal research, TnT system v2.4.1, proprietary | Bollinger Band squeeze resolution studies, multiple public technical analysis sources]. The direction of the break is not determined by the pinch itself. It is determined by the first confirming signal after the break. The MACD-v at bullish extreme biases that signal toward continuation. The two failed popper setups Thursday introduce a counterweight filed under “notable but not determinative.” The counterweight is on page 7.

3 – The ceasefire expiry Tuesday with VIX at 18.17 represents a historically low fear reading for a four-day countdown to a live geopolitical binary. [Source: CBOE VIX historical data, public | Bespoke Investment Group VIX regime analysis, public]. In prior instances where VIX remained below 20 into a known binary catalyst — including multiple FOMC meetings and prior geopolitical deadlines — the subsequent VIX spike on a negative outcome averaged 4.2 points in the first session. A move from 18 to 22+ would not be unusual in an escalation scenario. The market is not pricing this. Cachè-AI has priced it. It is on page 8.

In Other News…

The SPX closed at a new all-time high Thursday. 7,041.28. The ATH that was three points away on Wednesday became zero points away and then history on Thursday. The crash up delivered what it said it would deliver.

The Nasdaq logged its 12th consecutive positive session. The longest winning streak since 2009. In the same week as an active Hormuz blockade, a stagflation macro backdrop, a frozen Fed, and a ceasefire that expires Tuesday. The market has chosen to focus on the peace talks.

Trump phoned the Lebanese president and Netanyahu Thursday. First Israel-Lebanon direct talks in 34 years. Vance confirmed the ball is in Iran’s court. A second round of talks is reportedly scheduled. Tuesday is still Tuesday. The market is choosing to believe Tuesday goes well. VIX at 18.17 is the market’s formal position on this.

Meanwhile the 30-minute SPX chart has developed a small consolidation at the highs. The BB is extremely tight. Both Premium Poppers hit their stops. Sloppy setups at all-time highs. The market delivering the ATH with one hand and kicking the poppers with the other.

GEX shows 7,050 as the next meaningful level. Below 7,000, the gamma support is thin. The market grinds into the Friday close and then waits for Tuesday.

PepsiCo beat on top and bottom lines. BNY Mellon +1.3%. Initial jobless claims 207K against a 215K estimate. The labor market is not yet showing the stress the oil shock would suggest. Earnings season is delivering into a war backdrop the market has decided to treat as background noise.

Fun Fact:

The Nasdaq Composite’s 12-session winning streak through 17 April 2026 is the longest since January 2009, when the index logged 14 consecutive up sessions during a bear market relief rally.

Winning streaks of 10 or more consecutive sessions in the Nasdaq have occurred fewer than 20 times since the index’s inception in 1971, making the current run a statistically rare event.

The 2009 streak occurred approximately six weeks before the market made its final durable low — and at the time it was happening, most participants were calling it a dead cat bounce.

[Source: Bloomberg historical Nasdaq Composite data, public |
CNBC markets historical streak data, public |
Nasdaq historical data, Macrotrends.net, public]

The current streak is occurring at a new all-time high rather than a bear market low. The index has not read the historical footnote. It is continuing regardless.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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