Tag ‘n Turn Calls SPX A PLUS, Crude Asks The Juice Question

Quiet weekend by the looks of it. Nothing that should have moved any market dramatically. A touch of bullish overnight exuberance when I look at the percentage of overnight movement. Enough to be exciting. Not enough to be abnormal… other than the resumption of bomb swapping!!!

A real SPX setup to walk through, the new built-in Expert Advisor earning its keep, a juice question on Crude, and the BTC bear ride rolling on.

Market Snapshot

The overnight tape, in one shot:

• ES (SPX): 7,451.50 / +0.73% / bullish overnight push, Tag ‘n Turn read below

• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,366 / +0.39% / tagging green with the rest of the indexes

• NQ (NazQuack): 29,662.25 / +1.30% / leading the bullish push higher

• RTY (Uncle Russ): 3,026.4 / +0.07% / barely green, along for the ride

• VIX: 18.44 / +0.22% / barely budges, sitting at 18.44

• GC (Gold): 4,064.2 / -0.95% / down nearly a percent, the channel grinds on

• CL (Crude): 70.15 / -0.13% / flirting with the upper edge of the gap, full read below

• BTC: 59,763.98 / +0.49% / small bounce inside a bear ride, full read below

SPX: Tag ‘n Turn Hits PLUS On The Friday Setup

Friday’s setup with the Tag ‘n Turn is looking great this morning.

The new sexy built-in Expert Advisor is doing its job, and it has flagged this one as a real one to watch. Let me walk you through what the EA is calling.

What the EA is telling us in plain English. A fresh Bull setup, rated PLUS quality with a few additional quality factors stacking up. Above-average grade. Size lifts to 1.5x on the back of that. The premium add notes show a Profit Factor of 3.57 with a 51% win rate. Not bad numbers to lean on.

The trigger I am watching. Should we see the trade push above approximately 7,400, which it will should the gap hold, the add-in opportunity is confirmed. You will see an increase in the EA’s scoring at that point. That is the line in the sand for the next bump up.

PLUS already. Add-in confirms above 7,400 if the gap holds.

Crude Oil: Meandering, And A Juice Question

Price is flirting at the upper end of the gap and meandering sideways. Consolidation is forming on the lower timeframes.

My suspicion. There will be a pop lower to fill that gap at some point. Probably fake a few breakout traders into that leg of the movement, then grind out sideways again. Same script as before.

The bigger question. Overall I think directionally we are just about done here. As premium sellers we can take that right up to the line. But at some point we have to acknowledge that it might be worth flipping from selling calls to selling puts at some point soon. That is the call sitting on my desk this week.

Is the juice worth the squeeze? The flip’s coming.

Bitcoin: The Bear Ride Continues

BTC is pushing below the 58.5k level we looked at last week. And yet, the fresh rush of sellers has not yet transpired.

A bit of a mutation is possible from here. Should that level hold, we could see the widening of the range area evolve and mutate from what we had.

My bias is unchanged. The bear bias is still in force, and a push lower is still most likely. A bull assessment for me is still a way off, above 67k. So nothing to do just yet, other than hold on for the bear ride.

Hold on for the bear ride.

From The Desk: On The New System

As always, fun and games ahead.

The new Tag ‘n Turn system and Expert Advisor is already going to add a huge improvement to the process. It lifts the manual assessments considerably, and looks under the hood on 30+ factors in the background.

Interesting times.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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