System Flips Bullish But Wrinkles Emerge: Range Rules Override Software | SPX Market Briefing | 11 Sep 2025

Well, this is one of those mornings where the systematic approach meets the messy reality of market edge cases. The system officially flipped to bullish yesterday, but we’ve got a couple of wrinkles that need ironing out.

Sometimes automated analysis breaks down ever so slightly when rare scenarios pop up. We’ve got two things happening simultaneously that don’t play nicely together, and it’s exactly why human oversight still matters in systematic trading.

First wrinkle: we had a wide no-action zone from the bear swing that flipped to bullish yesterday, which means we now have a wide bear PFZ level. That’s definitely a fly in the ointment that needs some thinking.

Second wrinkle: we missed out on an official Bollinger Band pinch by a cat’s whisker. We’d already spotted the containment area and marked it off, but officially from the software’s point of view, it’s not official. Another rare occasion requiring manual finesse.

SPX Market Briefing:

When systematic meets manual, experience trumps automation every time.

Current System Status:

• Official Position: Bullish (software confirmed)

• Reality Check: Range treatment with manual override

• Key Levels: 6556 pullback high (bullish completion), 6515 range re-entry (bearish reset)

• Gap Higher: Standard range breakout treatment required

• Software Lag: Expected during edge case scenarios

For me, and as we’ve been commenting on, I see this as a range marked off by the black sloping lines already on the chart. Yesterday’s gap higher is part of standard range breakout treatment – we need to push above the pullback high at 6556 to complete the breakout and go properly bullish.

The Range Reality: A price move back inside the range has already started, so a push below 6515 will break back into the range and put the system back bearish – although the software won’t be there yet. This is exactly why manual oversight remains crucial during edge cases.

The Insider Apocalypse: Speaking of edge cases, we’ve got some seriously concerning data. Over the last week, 198 of the top 200 insider trades were sells. In two weeks, it was 398 of 400! The last time insider dumping hit this scale was the late 1920s, right before the Great Depression.

Today’s Systematic Deployment:

Tag ‘n Turn – Manual override engaged. Treating as range until 6556 breaks (bullish completion) or 6515 breaks (back to bearish). Software will catch up eventually.

Premium Popper – Range breakout environments often provide excellent opening volatility. Waiting for mechanical signals regardless of software wrinkles.

Lazy Popper – Perfect setup for 0-DTE collection during transitional periods. Manual range boundaries create clear risk parameters.

Expert Insights:

Edge cases in systematic trading require human judgment to override automated signals when market reality diverges from programmed parameters. The ability to recognize and manually handle rare scenarios separates robust systematic approaches from rigid algorithmic failures.

Range breakout treatment follows established mechanical rules regardless of software classification delays. When human pattern recognition identifies clear boundaries before automation catches up, manual override becomes the systematic choice.

Fun Fact:

According to Finviz data, insider selling ratios exceeding 95% of total insider transactions have historically preceded major market corrections. The current 398 of 400 insider sells (99.5% ratio) matches concentration levels last seen in late 1929, when similar executive selling patterns preceded the Great Depression market collapse.

[Source: Finviz.com – “Insider Trading Data and Historical Market Analysis”]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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