Standing Aside Was Right. Penny Saved Penny Earned. Bear Move Playing Out. | SPX Market Briefing | 18 Nov 2025

Monday’s decision to stand aside and not get carried away was – for me – especially on the short term trades – as there would have been a mixed outcome and a net loss for the day.

So a penny saved is a penny earned.

The narrow ranging day didn’t come to pass which I’m ok with – the decision to stand aside is more important and with a little hindsight – the right one.

The overall bear move from the daily range highs to lows is playing out nicely and the futures trades are now looking healthy.

The usual TnT trades less so as we’re about to flip from bullish back to bearish on SPX with RUT having already flipped me off.

While the in and out setups can be frustrating – it’s better to have a small loss now and get on the right direction rather than hold and hope.

Small loss. Right direction. Better than big loss wrong direction.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Tuesday November reviews Monday’s stand-aside decision vindicated (would have been mixed outcome net loss avoided creating penny-saved-penny-earned situation), narrow range didn’t materialize but decision more important with hindsight confirming right call, overall bear move from daily range highs to lows playing out nicely (futures trades now looking healthy), TnT trades flipping (SPX about to flip bullish back to bearish, RUT already flipped bearish), in-and-out setups frustrating but small loss now better than hold-and-hope for wrong direction.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6675.00, bear move continuing

• RTY: 2339.4, already flipped bearish

• YM: 46,538, down from NATHs

• NQ: 24,803.00, continuing decline

• CL: $59.68, below $60 again

• GC: $4037.8, pulling back further

• VIX: 23.22, elevated volatility

• DXY: 99.531, dollar strength

Stand Aside Vindicated – Penny Saved

Monday’s decision to stand aside and not get carried away was – for me – especially on the short term trades – as there would have been a mixed outcome and a net loss for the day.

Monday’s assessment: Narrow range expected, theta collection mode.
Monday’s reality: Not narrow, would have produced losses.

Standing aside = avoiding net loss day.

So a penny saved is a penny earned.

Avoiding $X loss = earning $X profit. Same result on P/L.

The narrow ranging day didn’t come to pass which I’m ok with – the decision to stand aside is more important and with a little hindsight – the right one.

Wrong on narrow range call. Right on stand aside decision. Outcome: Preserved capital. That’s what matters.

Current Status: Stand aside vindicated, penny saved penny earned

Bear Move Playing Out – Futures Healthy

The overall bear move from the daily range highs to lows is playing out nicely and the futures trades are now looking healthy.

Daily range: Highs tested, now moving to lows.
ES: 6675.00 down from 6900+ highs.
RTY: 2339.4 down from 2540 highs.

Bear move in progress. Futures positions benefiting. Trades now healthy after patience.

This is why systematic traders wait for confirmation rather than predicting reversals. Bear move confirmed. Now riding.

Current Status: Bear move from range highs to lows, futures trades healthy

TnT Flipping – SPX About To, RUT Already Did

The usual TnT trades less so as we’re about to flip from bullish back to bearish on SPX with RUT having already flipped me off.

SPX TnT: Currently bullish above 6660.02. Price at 6672.42. About to flip bearish if breaks below.

RUT TnT: Already flipped bearish below 2345.1. Price at 2341.38. Bearish confirmed.

Uncle Russell led the flip. SPX following. TnT mechanical rules doing their job – identifying when direction changes.

Current Status: RUT TnT flipped bearish, SPX TnT about to flip

Small Loss Now > Hold And Hope

While the in and out setups can be frustrating – it’s better to have a small loss now and get on the right direction rather than hold and hope.

In and out = frustrating. Multiple small losses as direction whipsaws. Feels like getting chopped up.

But: Small loss now with correct new direction beats big loss holding wrong direction hoping it comes back.

Hold and hope = amateur hour. Small loss and reposition = systematic discipline.

The frustration is temporary. The capital preservation is permanent.

Current Status: Small loss now beats hold and hope, systematic discipline over emotion

Fun Fact:

The $138 Million Panic Button When markets last felt this scared, there was no “shutdown delay” excuse

The last time the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 10 was June 2022 – when Luna collapsed and wiped $40 billion in 48 hours. Today’s reading marks only the fourth time in history the index has fallen this low. The previous three all preceded major rallies within 30 days.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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