SPX V-Entry Pending, Crude Pumps Toward $88 On Hormuz

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Monday, new week, new trading opportunities. Peace failed over the weekend with more bombings hitting the news, and every social media warrior trader was calling for a stock market crash. The reality is that war has been factored in for a while now, and we have been commenting on it in the Macro Edge letters.

Also, bar charts today instead of candles. I fancied a change.

Market Snapshot

Futures have barely blinked on the stock indexes, with the exception of crude oil, which is more directly impacted as the Strait of Hormuz fears increase and the potential for a stray incendiary device taking out infrastructure puts the black gold back on the table again. Even then it is a mild reaction: gap higher, small run, back to Friday’s highs for a gap fill, all in the overnight session.

On the stock indexes, S&P is moving away from its upper range area and towards the lower range. NazQuack already done this and is now at the range lows to assess for a break down or reversal. Both Uncle Russ and Uncle Dow are grinding sideways with less clear boundary areas on the daily charts.

BTC is also still grinding out a sideways range, basing for the next big move. The super cycle traders are still salivating, waiting for the pump. Fucking zombies.

• ES (SPX): 7,514.00 / +0.26% / off the upper range, V-entry pending, full read below

• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,449 / +0.14% / grinding sideways, less clear boundaries

• NQ (NazQuack): 28,875.00 / +0.37% / already at range lows, watching for break or reversal

• RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,980.70 / +0.33% / Bollingers compressed hard, full read below

• VIX: 18.54 / -1.17% / barely blinking at the weekend news

• GC (Gold): 4,024.30 / +0.03% / flat overnight

• CL (Crude): 81.45 / -0.39% / gap higher then gap fill, full read below

• BTC: 63,969.43 / -1.10% / grinding the range, full read below

SPX: Simple Swings, V-Entry Pending On Reduced Size

SPX swings are simple to read for a change. We have a lovely TnT setup with a V-entry pending. The quality score is not great, so it is a reduced size setup for me.

V-entry pending, reduced size, simple to read.

Uncle Russ: Bollinger Bands Compressed, Breakout Coming

RUT looks a little rough to read, which makes a change, as usually it is the voice of sanity. We left last week with some overlapping ranges and an attempted break down and out, only to see price twang back.

The Bollinger bands are very compressed here since around the 8th and 9th of July, so the eventual breakout move could well be most enjoyable.

Bollingers compressed. Breakout coming.

Crude Oil: Range Breakout Targets $88, BTTF Vibes

CL’s breakout from its range started last week prior to the weekend news pop. It is almost like price footprints are a clue here.

The pattern itself has a breakout target up towards $88, and the temptation to start with the Back to the Future references is strong.

Targets $88. Serious shit incoming.

Bitcoin: Patterns Within Patterns, Rising Channel Respected

BTC continues to be stuck in the grind. We are again seeing patterns within patterns, and the small rising channel continues to be respected, which is a part of the larger developing daily range.

Small moves back and forth. No need to overcomplicate this one.

Overall, lots of the 6 money making patterns everywhere today. Buy lows, sell highs, and / or wait for the breakouts.

Patterns within patterns. Buy lows, sell highs.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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