SPX Rides The Band, RUT Pinches For Breakout, BTC Heads For 40K

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Well folks, we’re clocking out of the last day of the trading month, and it was indeed a corker.

Now we can look forward to July. A shortened trading week this week and next. The 4th lands on a Saturday. Woot, 4-day weekend. NFP gets moved to Thursday instead of Friday.

A bullish extreme on SPX, a BB pinch waiting to break on RUT, a textbook range reversal on crude, the bear keeps bearing on BTC, and the Premium Popper bagged a DOUBLE.

Market Snapshot

The overnight tape, in one shot:

• ES (SPX): 7,544.50 / +0.68% / riding the Band, full read coming

• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,647 / +0.22% / sleepy, less excited for the moment

• NQ (NazQuack): 30,505.00 / +1.70% / peakaboo at the ATH likely next

• RTY (Uncle Russ): 3,042.2 / +0.54% / along for the ride, EA in reassess

• VIX: 16.46 / -6.80% / fell off the cliff, complacency is back

• GC (Gold): 4,033.6 / +0.08% / quiet, sideways grind

• CL (Crude): 70.07 / -0.50% / range reversal played out, full read below

• BTC: 58,700.02 / -2.43% / pop, drop, peakaboo below 58.5k

SPX: Keeps On Trucking, Riding The Band, MACD-v In Bullish Extreme

SPX keeps on trucking, and is rising the Bollinger Band just as we suspected on Tuesday’s briefing and video update.

MACD-v can now be seen as being in the bullish extreme zone. That is the trend-too-strong-for-counter-trades read. The EA still has the PLUS (+3) call sitting on top, with size at 1.5x and the Add-In Fired. Target shows 7,464.02.

Practical translation: bearish Tag ‘n Turn setups can be skipped here. The new all-singing all-dancing system should let us know the status when, or if, that happens.

Any bear move could well be short-lived. This is a continuation setup 74% of the time. So the playbook here is straightforward: stay with the trend until it tells us otherwise.

Trucking on the Band. Skip the bears.

Uncle Russ: Still In The BB Pinch, Wednesday Should See The Breakout

RUT is still showing the setups developing, and I will look into that. The EA is currently flagged Bull (Flipped) with the context note: Trade flipped against signal, reassess. So we are in reassess mode for the cash.

Overall we are still in a BB pinch point range, and waiting for the breakout makes sense to me.

Dropping to the 10-min was a choice as discussed on Tuesday. And if you took it, you would have seen a lovely 1-DTE from the range lows to the range highs.

Wednesday should see the breakout setup. That is the line in the sand for the swing trade.

BB pinch holds. Wednesday is the breakout.

Crude Oil: Textbook Range Reversal, Now Back To The Grind

Crude oil did exactly what we thought. Popped higher to the VWAP. Attempted a bull breakout. Swiftly turned about face for a lovely range reversal setup.

Straight from the range highs to the range lows. Woot woot.

Will we keep seeing this process? Will we break down and out? As always, time will tell.

As usual though, until something new happens, the same thing is likely to continue. Aka keep on grinding.

VWAP kiss confirmed. Back to the grind.

Bitcoin: Pop, Drop, Peakaboo Below 58.5k, Bear Keeps Bearing

Pop and drop. Peakaboo below the 58.5k level.

The bear keeps bearing. So just waiting for 50K, and potentially 40K from here.

That is the trajectory while no new evidence shows up to argue otherwise.

58.5k breached. 50K next. 40K possible.

Premium Popper: Bagged The Morning Income Again

Premium Poppers collected morning income nicely again on Tuesday.

Both SPX and RUT provided 1st and 2nd breakouts. Nice high-quality setups with full-stack scores 6/6 and stack rates around 91%.

SPX scored DOUBLE (+4). Position 2x. Direction BULL. ATR Ratio in the sweet spot at 13.2% adding +2, Early Breakout +1, Close Aligned +1. Win Rate ~89%. The 1st BO, 2nd BO, and 3rd BO all stacked up cleanly through the morning push.

RUT scored PLUS (+3). Position 1.5x. Direction BULL. ATR Ratio at 15.6% adding +2, Early Breakout +1. Win Rate ~89% on the Lazy Popper layer, Bull Win at 81.3%. Same 1st and 2nd BO pattern, ridden cleanly to the upside.

A few members reported taking an additional VWAP retracement entry on both SPX and RUT. All in all, an easy day with profits being wracked up again.

1st and 2nd breakouts. Morning income banked.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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