SPX Daily Pattern Recognition: Will Rally Continue or Bulls Finally Out of Steam? | SPX Market Briefing | 26 Sep 2025

Just when you think it’s time for the bears to party, the rug gets pulled – or perhaps the reverse in this case – gently slipped back under the bulls’ feet, with a nice cup of tea and a hobnob (the only biscuit for hardcore dunking enthusiasts)!

On SPX, we’ve seen this pattern before. I’ve conveniently circled a few areas of interest on the daily chart where similar action has unfolded. The big question remains: will this market rally from here, or have the bulls finally run out of steam?

Uncle Russell looks a little different, having recently broken out of the rising channel I had marked. I’m inclined to override things with the breakout, but the Income System has flipped to bullish, suggesting we could see a rally targeting the breakout point, Bollinger mid-point, and gap fill – which are all around the same or similar levels.

It’s Friday, and it’s been a rather good week again. Anyone for a long weekend?

SPX Market Briefing:

Today’s action perfectly demonstrates why systematic pattern recognition trumps emotional market calls every time.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: Familiar daily pattern playing out – rally potential vs bull exhaustion debate

• RUT: Broken rising channel with Income System bullish override consideration

• /ES Futures: Pinching between anchored VWAP lines suggesting narrow range Friday

• /CL Futures: Breakout confirmed targeting $67-67.50 range

• /GC Futures: Pinching between A.VWAP lines awaiting directional clarity

SPX Pattern Recognition:

The daily chart shows this familiar pattern where bears think it’s party time, only to see bulls get their footing back. Historical precedent suggests careful analysis rather than emotional positioning.

The circled areas on the daily timeframe show similar setups where market participants made premature directional assumptions. Systematic approach requires waiting for actual confirmation rather than anticipating outcomes.

Uncle Russell’s Channel Break:

Uncle Rus breaking out of the rising channel I had marked changes the tactical approach. The Income System flipping to bullish creates an interesting override situation.

This means I may need to take a discretionary bear position OR take profits at the confluence level (breakout point/Bollinger mid-point/gap fill) and assess what develops next. An upper Bollinger band tag isn’t happening anytime soon, and the bear PFZ level sits below recent lows around 2395.

Small bull profit target followed by waiting for bear PFZ trigger seems the optimal approach for capturing both scenarios whilst maintaining mechanical discipline.

ES Futures Anchored VWAP Analysis:

Over on /ES futures with the bigger picture in mind, prices are pinching between the anchored VWAP lines (something I’m experimenting with currently). Looking at historical price action, when we see huge rejection spikes, what normally follows is an inside or narrow ranging day.

I’d expect exactly that – a narrow ranging Friday – confirmed by current price action pinching between the A.VWAP boundaries.

Crude Oil Breakout Confirmation:

/CL crude oil’s breakout move is confirmed, and it’s game on with breakout targets between $67 and $67.50 expected. Yesterday’s Bollinger band breakout was indeed short-lived as suggested, and now we can hopefully see regular trending movements pushing toward target.

Should this breakout trade fail, I’ll assess the “break in” setup – a hybrid of breakout and range reversal strategies from my 6 Money Making Patterns.

Gold’s VWAP Pinch:

/GC gold futures are demonstrating the same behavior as /ES, pinching between the A.VWAP lines. If price can reclaim the rising A.VWAP, we can consider that a breakout and look to add into the bear swing. Targets remain as previously mentioned.

Today’s Systematic Plan:

More of a wait-and-see situation considering all factors. It’s Friday after a rather good week – perfect timing for tactical patience over forced positioning.

SPX – S&P500

RUT – Russel 2000

/ES – S&P500 Futures

/CL – Crude Oil Futures

/GC – Gold Futures

Fun Fact:

Samsung’s $105 Billion Employee Bonus “Mistake”

In 2018, Samsung Securities accidentally gave employees shares worth $105 billion instead of cash dividends—and 16 employees actually tried to sell them before anyone noticed!

This is hands-down the greatest “my dog ate my homework” excuse in corporate history, except the dog was a keyboard and the homework was worth more than most countries’ annual budgets!

Samsung Securities meant to give employees a modest cash dividend but instead accidentally distributed enough stock to buy several small nations. The best part? It took them 37 minutes to realize they’d just made their employees theoretically richer than Jeff Bezos combined-which in tech terms is approximately 37 years of reaction time.

But here’s where it gets absolutely legendary: 16 employees, upon receiving enough stock to buy their own space program, thought “this seems legit” and actually tried to cash out! Four of them succeeded in selling before anyone stopped them, making about $9.3 million each from what was essentially a cosmic-level typo.

These employees had the financial equivalent of finding a million-dollar lottery ticket blowing in the wind and their first thought was “free money!” Meanwhile, Samsung executives were probably having the most expensive panic attack in corporate history while lawyers frantically googled “how to un-make billionaires.”

The company’s stock dropped 12% because investors realized Samsung couldn’t tell the difference between a dividend payment and accidentally creating a new economic superpower!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

p.s. Want funding to DAY TRADE our options strategies? Discover how you can start trading with up to $250k of RISK FREE capital!