SPX Bear Fires, RUT Big Break Cooking, Bear Season Approaches

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Generally the markets have been grinding along on SPX, RUT and Uncle Dow, with NazQuack really being flushed down the bear gutters. Is it possible that the Burry AI bear move will come to fruition sooner than the two-year timeline?

Pre-market futures are already peeling off as we head into Friday, and my view is mostly the same: we are at the upper end of the daily ranges. Expect price to move lower towards the lower end of the ranges.

It’s gonna be a fun Friday finish for sure.

Market Snapshot

The overnight tape, in one shot:

• ES (SPX): 7,516.00 / -0.70% / bear swing back in effect, full read below

• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,452 / -0.55% / grinding down with the others

• NQ (NazQuack): 28,762.25 / -1.43% / flushed down the bear gutters

• RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,973.80 / -0.59% / TnT off, big break cooking, full read below

• VIX: 18.16 / +8.61% / big spike, fear returning

• GC (Gold): 4,000.90 / +0.53% / catching a safe-haven bid

• CL (Crude): 79.98 / +0.50% / continuing the recent bounce

• BTC: 63,034.64 / -1.15% / new 4hr channel developing, full read below

SPX: Bull Swing Voided, Bear Swing Takes Over On PLUS Scoring

On the SPX swings, I’ve rolled the chart back 1 bar so you can see the bear details again on the Expert Advisor.

The bull swing literally appeared on the last bar of the day yesterday. With the gap lower this morning, that is likely to void immediately with no trade being initiated, so the bear swing details stay in effect.

The Bear TnT looks fairly standard with an above-average scoring. Setup Bear (Fresh), Quality PLUS (+3), size 1.5x. Bearish Below 7,556.49. Target 7,523.59. Best short environment sits at 39% WR and PF 2.62 per the setup notes, with an over-bought fade at 16+ bars.

So the play is short-side, working the move down toward target.

Bear back in effect. PLUS on the flip.

Uncle Russ: TnT Off, The Big Break Looks Ready To Fire

Over on RUT, I’ve kept the TnT off still, which is what I was doing prior to my trip. Mainly as price is, or has been, forming overlapping consolidations.

This one looks like “the big break”. A move from the highs to the lows of the daily range seems likely from here.

The range walls are drawn in and the coil is tightening. When the break comes, the play is clean: short from the top of the range down to the lows.

Overlapping consolidations coiled. Big break to the lows.

Bitcoin: New 4hr Channel Within The Larger Daily Range

BTC doesn’t look to have done anything too interesting. Developing a new channel on the 4hr charts, which looks to be part of the larger daily channel and range developing.

Usual process: follow the 6 money-making patterns.

• Buy the range lows.

• Sell the range highs.

• While waiting for the breakout.

Clean, simple, and repeatable. No need to overcomplicate this one.

Buy lows. Sell highs. Wait for the break.

From The Community

Members have smashed the results on the Premium Popper setups this past week, and it’s also nice to see some new members hitting the ground running.

We’ll catch up with a full Wall of Wins just as soon as I get some time.

Watch this space.

Fun Fact: The Almanac Says September Is The Worst

From The Desk: Bear Season Is Coming Into View

Fair warning: I’m likely to be talking bear more frequently as we come into the bear season.

Technically from my research, the window is September / October. But often these moves start to take hold through July / August, and then really pop in the September / October window.

That is seasonality in a nutshell for you.

Backed up by the Stock Trader’s Almanac: since 1950, September is the worst-performing month of the year for the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979).

Which is why the setups this week matter. We are already seeing NazQuack flushed to the bear gutters, SPX and RUT rolling over from the highs, and the VIX starting to lift. The pieces are in place for the seasonal move to grip earlier rather than later.

Bear season approaches. Pieces are lining up.

Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac (Jeffrey Hirsch).

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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