Records On The Rumor. Be The Bull, Trade The Bull. MACD-V Still Suggesting More Upside.

The bulls keep bulling and this party is going to pop hard. It looks like peace is being factored, or over-factored, into the point of looking like a bubble as we continue to crash upwards. Is this a case of buy the rumor sell the news?

For now: be the bull, trade the bull. Cautious bear swing if they set up. The MACD-V setup is suggesting more upside still.

In the wider world, Wednesday closed at all-time highs on an Axios report of a 14-point memorandum between Washington and Tehran with response expected inside 48 hours. Trump, asked whether the deal was imminent, called it “perhaps, a big assumption.” The tape, having considered both views, picked the more bullish one.

Crude collapsed. WTI -7%. Brent -7.8%. AMD +20% on a Q1 beat. SMCI +15%. Corning +17% on a Nvidia optical-plant partnership. The chip cycle did the structural work. The peace narrative did the loud work.

Today: Initial jobless claims 8:30 ET, multiple Fed president remarks, Coinbase, Airbnb, McDonald’s, Shell, CoreWeave. Friday: NFP. The data decides whether records hold their nerve or remember the “big assumption.”

Market Briefing:

Thursday 7 May.

• Wednesday close: SPX 7,365.12 (+1.46%) fresh ATH / Nasdaq 25,838.94 (+2.02%) fresh record / Dow +612 / RTY +1.5%

• Thursday pre-market: ES 7,396 (+0.13%) NATHs / NQ 28,727.25 (+0.05%) NATHs / RTY 2,894.2 (+0.08%) NATHs / YM 50,050 (+0.06%) finally near NATH

• 30-minute SPX: Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267 / NATHs 7,369.22 just cleared / Bearish TnT printed but immediately followed by PFZ Flip back to bullish / target pending

• 30-minute RUT: Bullish Above (Flipped) 2,842.97 / NATHs 2,888.61 cleared / Bearish TnT printed but PFZ Flip back to bullish again / target pending

• AMD finished +20% / SMCI +15% / Corning +17% on Nvidia partnership covering 3 US optical-manufacturing plants

• Disney Q2: revenue $25.17B beat by $320M / EPS $1.57 vs $1.50 / streaming margin double-digit first time at 10.6% / buyback raised to $8B

• Crude: WTI -7% to $95.08 / Brent -7.8% to $101.27 / both off intraday lows of $88 and $96

• Today: Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 (consensus 205K vs prior 189K) / multiple Fed president remarks / Shell, McDonald’s, Gilead, McKesson, CoreWeave, Coinbase, Airbnb

• Friday: April NFP / first read after 2025 government shutdown delay / consensus 49K / Warsh confirmation same window

• BTC near $82K / 3 straight ETF inflow days totaling $1.16B / Coinbase cut 14% of staff

• VIX 17.45 (-5.44%) / 10Y drifting higher on rising rate-hike odds / CME FedWatch 13% cut odds 2026

• GEX: 7,350 new dominant anchor / 7,400 secondary spike / 7,300 demoted to floor / range 7,300-7,400

Market Snapshot

• ES: 7,396 / +0.13% / NATHs

• YM: 50,050 / +0.06% / Dow finally near NATH

• NQ: 28,727.25 / +0.05% / NATHs

• RTY: 2,894.2 / +0.08% / NATHs

• GC: 4,742.1 / +0.83% / V-entry developing toward $5K

• CL: 92.54 / -3.81% / WTI sub-$93 on peace rumour

• VIX: 17.45 / -5.44% / sub-18 collapse continues

• BTC: 80,756 / -0.84% / consolidating after 3-day inflow streak

Tag ‘n Turn

SPX: Bullish. Bearish TnT printed but immediately PFZ flipped back. Be the bull, trade the bull. MACD-V still suggesting more upside.

RUT: Same setup. Bullish above 2,842.97. Bearish TnT then PFZ Flip back. Headache saved twice in a row.

The bulls keep bulling. The bear TnT signals on both charts printed and immediately got PFZ-flipped back to bullish before entry was possible. The MACD-V is still suggesting more upside.

The trade today is to be the bull and trade the bull. A cautious bear swing setup is allowed if it develops with appropriate confirmation, but the operative posture is long.

The question hanging over the setup is whether peace is being factored or over-factored into a bubble. Buy the rumor, sell the news is on the cards if the 14-point memorandum either fails to materialize or arrives priced in.

SPX Analysis

Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267. NATHs 7,369.22 cleared. Bearish TnT printed at 7,284.14 but immediately followed by PFZ Flip back to bullish. Target pending.

The bear signal that printed earlier this week did not develop. The chart flipped back to bullish via PFZ Flip and continued higher to fresh NATHs.

Bull thesis remains outside the range. Bear thesis remains inside the range. Price is outside the range and bullish, with NATHs just cleared and the next GEX anchor at 7,350 functioning as immediate support.

Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267 / PFZ 7,231.3 / Target Pending / NATHs 7,369.22

Gamma Exposure

7,350 new dominant anchor. 7,400 secondary spike. 7,300 demoted to floor. Range development now 7,300-7,400.

The GEX field has migrated up with price. 7,350 is now the dominant gamma node. 7,400 sits as the next major spike above. 7,300 has been demoted from new anchor (yesterday) to range floor (today).

Range development between 7,300 and 7,400 is the cleaner expectation if neither breaks cleanly.

Put wall 7,000. Call wall 7,400. Gamma flip 6,569.32. IV 14.62% / IVP 60% / IV Rank 25.28%.

RUT Analysis

Bullish Above (Flipped) 2,842.97. NATHs 2,888.61 cleared. Bearish TnT printed but immediately PFZ Flipped back to bullish. Same pattern as SPX.

RUT continues bullish. The bear TnT signal printed on the upper boundary of the move but immediately got PFZ-flipped back to bullish. Same headache-saving pattern as SPX.

Bull thesis remains outside the range. Bear thesis remains inside the range. Price is outside and bullish.

Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 2,842.97 / PFZ Level 2,835.72 / Target Pending / NATHs 2,888.61

Rounding Off

The peace rumor. Axios reported a one-page, 14-point memorandum between Washington and Tehran with response expected inside 48 hours. Trump called it “perhaps, a big assumption.” Crude collapsed: WTI -7%, Brent -7.8%. The records set themselves. The deal hasn’t.

The chip cycle. AMD +20% post-earnings citing data center demand “broadening, not narrowing.” SMCI +15%. Corning +17% on Nvidia partnership covering 3 US optical-manufacturing plants. Semis the unambiguous leader, “the way a soloist is the leader of a band that has stopped playing.”

Disney. Q2 revenue $25.17B beat by $320M. EPS $1.57 vs $1.50. Streaming margin double-digit first time at 10.6%, six years after launch. Buyback raised to $8B.

The data ahead. Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 today at 205K consensus vs 189K prior. NFP Friday at 49K consensus, the first read after the 2025 government shutdown delay. The data decides whether records hold or remember the assumption.

Current Status: Be the bull, trade the bull / MACD-V more upside / Bear TnTs printed and flipped back / GEX migrated to 7,350-7,400 / Peace narrative loud / Chip cycle structural / NFP Friday is the binary

Expert Insights

The market priced peace on Axios reporting a 14-point memorandum. Trump called the deal “perhaps, a big assumption.” Two interpretations of the same situation, and the tape picked the more bullish one.

If the news arrives and confirms the rumor, history suggests the rally fades on the confirmation. If the news arrives and contradicts the rumor, the fade is sharper. Either way the rumor-trade has run.

The discipline is to ride what is working with appropriate position sizing and to recognize that the structural work (AMD, SMCI, Corning, Disney) and the loud work (peace narrative) are doing different jobs in the same direction.

[Source: Public market history records | CME FedWatch implied probability data, public]

1 – The S&P 500 +1.46% rally to a fresh ATH of 7,365.12 on a single-source Axios report of a 14-point memorandum, with the same-day public characterization by the US President as “perhaps, a big assumption,” represents one of the largest single-session record rallies on a contested rumor without confirmed sourcing in the post-2020 cycle. [Source: Axios reporting, 6 May 2026 | Public statements, 6 May 2026 | S&P Dow Jones Indices, public]. Crude collapsing -7% on WTI and -7.8% on Brent confirms the cross-asset response is treating the rumor as priced reality. Historical resolution of major rumor-driven rallies suggests two paths: confirmation produces an additional 0.5-1.0% extension followed by a fade, while contradiction produces a 1.5-2.5% sharp reversal within 3 sessions.

2 – AMD’s +20% post-earnings reaction (on top of the existing +66% YTD that produced +15% AH on Tuesday) plus SMCI +15% plus Corning +17% on the Nvidia optical-plant partnership represents one of the cleanest sector-leadership concentration days for AI semiconductor and AI-adjacent infrastructure names in the 2026 cycle to date. [Source: AMD Q1 2026 earnings, public | Corning-Nvidia partnership announcement, public, 6 May 2026]. The structural work being done by AI capex (AMD’s “broadening, not narrowing” data center demand framing) is functionally independent of the geopolitical loud work being done by the peace narrative, which means the chip cycle leg is fundamentally more durable to a peace-rumor reversal than the broad index move.

3 – The GEX anchor migration from 7,200/7,300 (start of week) to 7,350/7,400 (Wednesday close), with 7,300 demoted from new anchor to range floor in a single 48-hour window, represents one of the fastest gamma-field migrations observed in 2026 and confirms dealer hedging dynamics are now positioning for sustained price action above the prior range. [Source: SpotGamma gamma exposure data, $SPX, 6 May 2026, spotgamma.com]. The new range development zone of 7,300-7,400 means breakouts above 7,400 or below 7,300 will require either NFP-level macro catalyst or earnings-cluster surprise to break the dealer-hedging mechanics. Friday’s NFP at consensus 49K (the first read after the 2025 government shutdown delay) is the only scheduled catalyst with sufficient magnitude this week.

In Other News…

The records set themselves. The deal hasn’t.

Wednesday closed at all-time highs. SPX 7,365.12 +1.46%. Nasdaq +2.02%. Dow +612. RTY +1.5%. The catalyst was an Axios report of a 14-point memorandum between Washington and Tehran. Trump called it “perhaps, a big assumption.” The tape picked the more bullish view.

Crude collapsed within hours. WTI -7%. Brent -7.8%. AMD +20%. SMCI +15%. Corning +17% on the Nvidia optical-plant partnership. Semis the unambiguous leader, “the way a soloist is the leader of a band that has stopped playing.” Disney’s streaming margin hit double digits for the first time, six years in.

Bitcoin pushed near $82,000 on three straight ETF inflow days totaling $1.16 billion. Coinbase cut 14% of staff. Earnings tonight will explain how those connect.

Today: Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 ET at 205K consensus. Multiple Fed president remarks. Shell, McDonald’s, Gilead, McKesson, CoreWeave, Coinbase, Airbnb. Friday: NFP at 49K consensus, the first read after the 2025 government shutdown delay. The data decides whether records hold their nerve or remember Trump’s assumption.

Phil’s read: be the bull, trade the bull. MACD-V still suggesting more upside. Cautious bear swing if it sets up. Buy the rumour, sell the news is on the cards.

Fun Fact:

The chip cycle’s Wednesday session featured AMD +20%, SMCI +15%, and Corning +17% in a single trading day, with Corning’s gain attributed to a Nvidia partnership covering three US-based optical-manufacturing plants.

The combined market cap reaction across the three names approached $200B in a single session. FactSet historical data shows three-stock semiconductor and AI-adjacent name rallies of 15%+ each occurring on the same trading session in fewer than 2% of post-2020 sessions, and historically resolve with sustained sector outperformance over the following 30 trading sessions rather than mean reversion.

[Source: FactSet historical sector reaction data, public |
Corning-Nvidia partnership announcement, 6 May 2026, public]

Semis the unambiguous leader, the way a soloist is the leader of a band that has stopped playing.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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