Price Meandering At Prior NATHs. 3 of 4 Back Inside Range. Pullback Or Reversal? | SPX Market Briefing | 6 Nov 2025

Well, very little changed in 24 hours. Again.

The anticipated pauses at the prior NATHs came to fruition. Without a little over-reaction – which the talking heads will no doubt be calling “a bounce.”

I still see price meandering at these levels. And as price is breaking back into the range we’ve been following on 3 of the 4 main indexes, this could simply be the pullback after the break for potential further down moves.

I would need to see price push back out the range to consider breakout setups again and a push to ever higher NATHs.

Over on SPX, I’ve manually marked off the charts for clarity:

SPX had a range – which broke down and out, nudged its BO target, and is now back in bullish mode.

I think we’ll see price retest the breakout range lows again before seeing what happens next: Breaking back into the price range and a run to NATHs, or a pop ‘n drop through the prior NATH which is acting as support and a subsequent drive to the larger range lows noted on the daily chart.

Time will tell all.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Very little change in 24 hours as anticipated pauses at prior NATHs materialize without over-reaction (talking heads calling “bounce”), 3 of 4 indexes breaking back into range creating potential pullback-before-further-down scenario, SPX broke down and nudged BO target 6763.80 now testing support, whilst systematic traders exercise patience waiting for price confirmation rather than predicting next directional move.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6825.00, testing breakout range lows as support, meandering

• RTY: 2455.8, back inside range after leading bear charge

• YM: 47,413, pausing at prior NATH support

• NQ: 25,734.75, back inside established range

• CL: $60.11, still hovering just above $60 psychological level

• GC: ~$3900s, sideways stall continuing

• VIX: 18.06, elevated but declining from 19.47 yesterday

• 2yr Bonds: 3.613%

Very Little Changed – Anticipated Pauses Playing Out

Well, very little changed in 24 hours. Again.

Mon/Tue: Weird funky behavior, Mag7 tipping, bear charge intensifying.
Wed: Price pausing at technical levels. Testing support. Meandering.

The anticipated pauses at the prior NATHs came to fruition. Systematic frameworks expected this. Prior resistance becomes support. Markets test these levels before confirming direction.

Current positioning:

• ES 6825 (testing support at prior NATH)

• YM 47,413 (pausing at prior NATH)

• NQ 25,734 (back inside range and at prior NATH)

• RTY 2455 (back inside after leading lower – leading the bear charge)

Talking heads calling “a bounce.” Systematic traders seeing anticipated technical testing. A bounce implies bullish reversal confirmed. A pause means neither side winning yet. Confirmation still required.

Current Status: Pauses at prior NATHs anticipated, no over-reaction confirming reversal, systematic patience required

3 of 4 Back Inside Range – Pullback or Reversal?

Price is breaking back into the range we’ve been following on 3 of the 4 main indexes.

This could be:

1. Pullback after breakdown – testing levels before resuming lower

2. Failed breakdown – bulls reclaiming range

3. Range-bound again – back to neutral trading

Classic post-breakdown behavior: Break support → reach target → pull back to test → then either resume lower or reverse higher.

3 of 4 indexes now back inside ranges. Uncle Russell back inside after leading. ES testing. NQ testing. The question: Pullback before more downside, or reversal back into range?

I would need to see price push back out the range to consider breakout setups again and a push to ever higher NATHs.

Mechanical rule stated clearly: No bullish breakout positioning until price breaks back OUT of the range with conviction. Until then, neutral observation and Premium collection.

Current Status: 3 of 4 back inside range, potential pullback-after-break scenario, confirmation required before directional commitment

SPX: Broke Down, Nudged Target, Now Testing

SPX had a range – which broke down and out, nudged its BO target, and is now back in bullish mode.

The sequence:

1. Range established with clear boundaries

2. Broke down below support – bear positioning triggered

3. Nudged 6763.80 target – mechanical profit-taking zone

4. Rallied back, now testing broken range lows

Textbook post-breakdown behavior.

I think we’ll see price retest the breakout range lows again before seeing what happens next:

Two probable scenarios:

Scenario 1: Breaking back into the price range and a run to NATHs (6920.21). Bulls reclaim range. Bullish setups trigger.

Scenario 2: Pop ‘n drop through the prior NATH acting as support, then drive to larger range lows on the daily chart. Bear continuation confirmed.

Both possible. Neither confirmed yet.

Current Status: SPX nudged 6763.80 target, testing resistance, two scenarios possible, waiting for confirmation

Time Will Tell All

Time will tell all.

Systematic trading acknowledges uncertainty. We don’t know if this pause is pullback before more downside or failed breakdown reversing higher.

Time will tell. Price will confirm. Then we’ll position accordingly.

Wednesday’s newsletter: Act on confirmed setups (Mag7 distribution, META 600% ROC).
Thursday’s newsletter: Wait during unclear action (meandering at support).

The systematic advantage: Knowing when to act AND when to wait.

Until confirmation: Premium/Lazy Poppers tick over. Volatility collection proceeds. Larger directional positions wait.

The systematic approach: Ready for any outcome. Positioned for none until confirmed.

Current Status: Bullish, mechanical rules ready to respond to setups not prediction, patience during uncertainty

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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