Powell holds. Powell exits. Powell stays. Pick one.

APRIL CLOSED RECORDS. MAY OPENED A BLOCKADE. Wall Street decided Friday that 7,200 and $126 oil can both be true.

The S&P 500 closed April at 7,209.01, its first finish above 7,200, the index’s best month since 2020. Apple beat on revenue, EPS, and Greater China, then went up 3% in premarket as if obligated. The Dow added 790 points. Russell 2000 led the session. Investors then swung their gaze to a Brent crude print at $126.41, a four-year wartime high, and decided this was a different story altogether. WTI settled at $105.07.

Trump kept the naval blockade in place until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal that nobody is currently negotiating. Hormuz transits run in single digits. The IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in history. Powell held rates Wednesday at 3.50% to 3.75% in his final meeting as chair, with four dissents, the most since October 1992, a welcome mat for Kevin Warsh that came with a 34-year warning attached. Powell announced he is staying on the board for a period yet to be specified.

Today brings Exxon, Chevron, Moderna, and the April jobs print into a tape paying $4.30 a gallon at the pump. Equities are at records. Crypto sits in Fear. Oil tells a recession story. Three markets, three different Fridays, one tape pretending it all reconciles.

Records Held, Capex Cracked, Bulldozers Carried

Apple beat. Caterpillar lifted. Meta and Microsoft paid the AI bill.

1. Premarket snapshot: S&P 500 futures sit flat at 06:45 ET, holding the 7,209.01 cash close, the index’s first close above 7,200. Dow futures little changed near 49,652.14, Nasdaq futures track Apple’s premarket bid. Apple beat Q1 on revenue $111.18B, EPS $2.01, iPhone +22% year on year, China at $20.5B versus $18.9B consensus. Bar cleared.

2. Sector rotation: The Dow had its best day in weeks because two industrial names with no AI exposure delivered. Caterpillar +10% on a record backlog. Eli Lilly +9% on weight-loss drug demand that has not noticed any recession. Russell 2000 added 2.1%. Information Technology lagged. Every other S&P sector advanced.

3. Earnings or guidance: Big Tech split sharply. Alphabet +9% Thursday after a 34% April rally on cloud, ads, Waymo. Meta lost 7.5% on a $125-145B capex range. Microsoft fell 3.8% on $190B capex flagged to memory cost. Qualcomm jumped 15% on a hyperscaler note despite a soft current-quarter guide. The AI thesis paid for itself.

4. Cross-asset nuance: Brent touched $126 before settling $114.01, WTI $105.07, gasoline $4.30 national, $6.01 in California. Yen at 155.57 then 157.10. Powell warned inflation is misbehaving, December cut now off the table. The Fed split four ways and called it consensus.

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Fear at 33, Outflows Three Deep, Bitcoin Held Anyway

BTC reclaimed $77K overnight. The screen says scared. The tape says no.

1. Price snapshot: Bitcoin trades $77,000 at 06:00 ET Friday, up 2% in 24 hours after recovering from an overnight dip near $75,500. Ethereum hovers $2,280, down from a weekly peak at $2,404. Solana $84, XRP $1.38, Dogecoin up 2-3%. Total crypto market cap $2.65 trillion, up 1.3% on the session. BTC took itself off the mat.

2. Flows and positioning: US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $137.77M on April 29, a third straight outflow day. IBIT minus $54.73M, FBTC minus $36.13M. Ethereum ETFs lost $87.73M. XRP ETFs the only green print at $3.59M. April still closed +$1.9B for BTC ETFs. Fear and Greed sits at 33, down 14 points week on week.

3. Leadership and rotation: BTC dominance steady at 58.0%, ETH at 10.5%. Capital concentrated in majors, no rotation to alts because nobody is feeling experimental at $126 Brent. Open interest pulled back into FOMC week, futures aggregate OI in the $180-200B band. Cardano carried the only negative funding rate, the cleanest counter-positioning on tape.

4. Catalysts and roadmap: Consensus 2026 lands in Miami May 5 to 7, the industry’s flagship event and a clear catalyst window for ETF flow turn and altcoin narratives. Senate banned its own members from Polymarket and Kalshi bets. Wasabi Protocol exploit cost up to $5.5M. North Korea-linked actors took 76% of 2026 thefts.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

1. S&P 500 closed April at 7,209, first above 7,200, best month since 2020. Apple beat. Meta tripped. Microsoft tripped. The tape took the win regardless.

2. SPX cue: futures flat at 06:45 ET, holding the cash close. 7,200 is the new floor. Apple’s open will tell you whether records are technical or real.

3. Bitcoin clawed back $77K from a $75.5K overnight flush. ETF outflows now stretch three sessions. Fear and Greed at 33, lower by fourteen points week on week.

4. Powell held 3.50-3.75% in his last meeting as chair. Four dissents, most since 1992. Warsh advances. December cut off the table. Powell stays as governor anyway.

5. Brent touched $126 wartime peak Thursday before settling $114, WTI $105. Hormuz still shut, blockade extended. Exxon, Chevron, Moderna report. April jobs due before bell.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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