Nine Up Weeks. Almanac Says Pause.

Day 63 of the never-ending bull story. Price pauses briefly sitting just under new all-time highs – and I once again sound like a broken record.

Insanity is perhaps minutes away before I join Tom Hanks and start talking to Wilson with a pencil up each nostril and start saying things like cluck cluck jibber jibber, my old man’s a mushroom, etc… Wubble!

One of the things discussed in the group calls is that this straight-line move can’t continue. Now I’m – surprisingly – not suggesting a crash or correction. But a pause would be nice. A few up days, a few down days, something normal-ish.

Here’s what the Stock Trader’s Almanac has to say about it. The S&P 500 just completed nine consecutive weekly gains. This has happened only 14 times since 1930, including the current streak. The latest run, from 27 March to 29 May, added 19.0%, the strongest rally in the data set. The average one-week return after a 9-week streak is -0.84%. The median is -0.91%. Only 31% of occurrences saw the market continue higher in the immediately following week. The two-week outlook is more balanced. Four weeks out, 77% positive. Three months out, 61% positive. Six months out, 77% positive with an average gain of 5.48%.

In plain English: short-term consolidation or mild pullbacks have been common after extended rallies. Longer-term, the trend has stayed constructive.

And now thinking about my swings:

SPX – price in a range – wait for the breakout.

RUT – in a range – has broken out.

Nice and simple.

BTC – moving down like a madman. Small breakout target has been smashed. A new larger target based on the big channel break takes us down to the 60k zone, and the daily shows prices stair-stepping with a possible Elliott Wave count that could see price nudge us to 50k.

Fun times.

Market Briefing:

Tuesday 2 June – the second trading day of a month that has, between three tickers, decided to print three records and ignore four other headlines. Tuesday futures finally slipped, which is roughly what happens when the room remembers there were five screens.

• Monday closed records: SPX 7,599.96 +0.26% / Nasdaq 27,086.81 / Dow 51,078.88 / Nasdaq added 0.81% on a single laptop-chip launch

• The Three Atlases: Micron, Nvidia, Alphabet — driving more than 40% of this year’s S&P EPS revisions per Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel. Dell +10%, HP +8% on the chip news. Intel -4% for the crime of being yesterday.

• Brent +5% above $95 on Hormuz threat (Iran suspended Washington talks) / ISM Manufacturing 54 with prices index at 82.1 / zero Fed cuts now priced for 2026 / Warsh’s first FOMC June 17

• Premarket snap: ES -0.02% / NQ +0.12% / YM -0.19% / RTY +0.19% / VIX 16.21 / BTC -2.12% to 69,804

• The Almanac speaks: the S&P just completed only the 14th 9-week winning streak since 1930. Average 1-week return after: -0.84%. Median: -0.91%. Only 31% positive in the week immediately following.

• Today: nothing major scheduled. Mid-week brings ADP Wed 08:15, ISM Services Wed 10:00, NFP Fri 08:30

Market Snapshot

• ES: 7,606.75 / -1.75 (-0.02%) / NATHs 7,632.25 / the lunch break

• YM: 51,007 / -99 (-0.19%) / NATHs 51,384 / Uncle Dow easing

• NQ: 30,560.25 / +37.75 (+0.12%) / NATHs 30,693 / Nazquack still aloft on the Three Atlases

• RTY: 2,909.70 / +5.50 (+0.19%) / NATHs 2,952.00 / Uncle Russ broke the range

• GC: 4,559.40 / +44.60 (+0.99%) / haven bid lifting on Hormuz

• CL: 90.56 / -1.91 (-2.07%) / WTI pulling back even as Brent firmed above $95

• VIX: 16.21 / +0.15 (+0.93%) / year low 13.38 still in view

• BTC: 69,804.25 / -1,510.17 (-2.12%) / moving down like a madman

Tag ‘n Turn

SPX in a range – wait for the breakout. RUT in a range – has broken out. BTC moving down like a madman, small breakout target smashed, 60k zone next, possible 50k on the Elliott Wave count.

Three different decisions on three different charts and the cleanest read on the board is the one selling. The talking heads describing the rally yesterday have not yet been seen describing the four headlines Wall Street declined to read.

SPX Analysis

SPX – price in a range – wait for the breakout. NATHs at 7,617.66. Friday close 7,580.05 / Monday close 7,599.95.

SPX – price in a range – wait for the breakout.

Nice and simple.

Current Status: In range / wait for the breakout / NATHs 7,617.66

Gamma Exposure

Gamma flip 6,858.72, well below cash. Put wall 7,500, call wall 7,600. Massive call gamma node at 7,600. IV 13.37%, IV Percentile 39%.

The flip sits well below cash. The put wall has lifted from 7,400 to 7,500. The call wall holds at 7,600 with the largest call gamma node on the board sitting on it.

IV at 13.37% against historic 9.60%, with IV Rank 17.31% and IV Percentile 39%.

Current Status: Flip 6,858.72 / Put Wall 7,500 / Call Wall 7,600 / IV 13.37% / HV 9.60% / IVR 17.31% / IVP 39%

RUT Analysis

RUT – in a range – has broken out. NATHs 2,942.41. Monday close 2,905.76.

RUT – in a range – has broken out.

Nice and simple.

Current Status: Range broken out / NATHs 2,942.41

BTC Analysis

BTC moving down like a madman. Small breakout target has been smashed. New larger target based on the big channel break: 60k zone. Daily shows prices stair-stepping with a possible Elliott Wave count that could see 50k.

BTC – moving down like a madman.

Small breakout target has been smashed.

A new larger target based on the big channel break takes us down to the 60k zone, and the daily shows prices stair-stepping with a possible Elliott Wave count that could see price nudge us to 50k.

Fun times.

Current Status: Small range breakout smashed / Larger target 60k zone / Possible Elliott Wave count to 50k / Daily stair-stepping down

Rounding Off

Wall Street Read One Headline. Ignored The Other Four. Monday closed at three fresh records on the strength of a single laptop chip. Nasdaq +0.81%. Dell +10%, HP +8% as anointed partners of the Three Atlases. Intel -4% for the crime of being yesterday. Brent ran 5% above $95 on Iran suspending talks with Washington and floating Hormuz closure. ISM Manufacturing beat at 54 with prices index at 82.1, sufficient to bury the rate-cut narrative for the year. Zero Fed cuts are now priced for 2026. Bitcoin closed near $73,000 as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, of all sellers, sold. The tape, weighed against an oil shock, a hawkish Fed, and a capitulating permabull, bought a laptop chip instead. Tuesday’s futures slipped on the open, which is roughly what happens when the room remembers there were five screens.

The Pause The Almanac Says Always Comes. We’re not calling a crash. We’re calling a pause – a few up days, a few down days, something normal-ish. The 9-week winning streak just printed is only the 14th since 1930 and the strongest of all time at +19.0%. The one-week historical average after this configuration is -0.84%. The median is -0.91%. Only 31% of occurrences saw the market continue higher in the immediately following week. None of that is a top-call. All of it is the temperature reading the system has been politely insisting on for sixty-three days. The pause history says always comes is, statistically, overdue. The discipline remains the same: SPX in range wait for the breakout, RUT broken out, BTC stair-stepping toward 60k and possibly 50k. The chart is doing the work.

Expert Insights

The chart has, for sixty-three days, declined to provide a pause. The Almanac data tells you the pause statistically arrives. The system tells you which side of the range to trade when it does. The trader’s job, between those two pieces of information, is to wait. Not to sit on hands – to manage what is already open, watch what is set up, and let the breakout or the breakdown print without supplying one prematurely.

Munger’s line is not about doing nothing. It is about doing nothing new when nothing new is warranted. Trade small. Keep the system. The Three Atlases will eventually share the load – or they will drop it – and either resolution is a setup the chart will show before the talking heads catch up to it.

[Source: Charlie Munger, Poor Charlie’s Almanack and Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting transcripts, public]

Fun Fact:

The Stock Trader’s Almanac records the S&P 500 having just completed its 14th nine-week winning streak since 1930. That places the event roughly once every seven years on average, though in practice the spacing has been highly uneven – clusters in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s, then long droughts.

The just-completed streak ran from 27 March to 29 May 2026, posting +19.0% over the nine-week period. That makes it the strongest 9-week streak in the data set going back nearly a century. The previous strongest was the November 1985 occurrence at +15.85%, followed six months later by a +22.7% extension.

The historical pattern after these streaks is short-term softness, long-term continuation. The one-week average post-streak is -0.84%, the median -0.91%, with only 31% of occurrences seeing immediate further upside. The four-week picture is constructive: 77% positive, average +1.21%. Six months out, 77% positive, average +5.48%. Out of 13 historical occurrences (excluding the current one) the six-month return was negative only three times, including the worst at -15.08% after the May 1957 streak.

In summary: history says the immediate aftermath is mixed-to-soft, the medium term constructive. The Almanac, having published this, takes no view on which side wins.

[Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac historical data, Hirsch Holdings Inc., stockradersalmanac.com, public]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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