NFP Day at Critical Confluence: Range Highs, NATH, Big Round Numbers | SPX Market Briefing | 05 Sep 2025

Hey traders!

Here we are on NFP Friday with SPX positioned at one of those rare technical confluences that systematic traders dream about.

SPX is at range highs, near new all-time highs, sitting on a big round number, with ADD approaching bullish extremes. It’s the kind of setup where multiple technical factors converge to create genuine inflection point potential.

The beauty of this positioning is that NFP could accelerate the already upward swing or be the fuel that proves the turn and legs us into a bear move right at the start of correction season. Both outcomes offer systematic opportunities rather than creating confusion.

This is exactly why mechanical approaches work better than prediction attempts – when you’re positioned systematically, market direction becomes irrelevant to profit potential.

Trade SPX Like a Machine. Get Paid Like a Boss.

Rule-based spreads. Defined risk. Cash-settled. Welcome to trader freedom.

SPX Market Briefing:

The charts reveal the kind of technical confluence that creates the highest-probability systematic opportunities – multiple levels converging at exactly the right moment for mechanical decision-making.

Current Technical Confluence:

• Position: Range highs with near all-time high proximity

• Level: Big round number providing psychological significance

• Momentum: ADD near bullish extreme levels

• Timing: NFP release day with correction season context

• Systematic Status: Bullish until bearish with clear inflection potential

The NFP Inflection Point Analysis:

Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls release arrives at perfect technical timing. We have two clear systematic scenarios:

Scenario A – Acceleration: Strong NFP data could accelerate the already upward swing, pushing through range highs into new all-time high territory with momentum continuation.

Scenario B – Reversal: Weak NFP or simply profit-taking at these levels could prove the turn and leg us into a bear move right at the start of traditional correction season (September/October).

Both scenarios offer systematic profit potential when approached mechanically rather than emotionally.

The Correction Season Context:

The seasonal timing adds fascinating context without changing systematic execution. We’re positioned at technical extremes just as historically volatile months begin – creating natural inflection point potential regardless of fundamental catalysts.

Today’s Systematic Plan:

Tag ‘n Turn: Same plan – bullish until bearish. The confluence of technical levels provides clear systematic decision points rather than emotional guesswork.

Premium Popper & Lazy Popper: Awaiting the opening for algo setups. NFP Friday volatility often creates ideal conditions for mechanical opportunity recognition.

The systematic beauty is that we don’t need to predict which direction NFP pushes the market – we simply need to execute mechanically when our setups appear.

Expert Insights:

Options selling with 7DTE benefits significantly from NFP Friday volatility, as major economic releases often create the large moves needed to quickly hit profit objectives. The current technical confluence amplifies this potential by providing clear inflection levels.

Range high positioning with ADD extremes typically creates binary outcomes – either powerful breakouts or sharp reversals. Both scenarios favor systematic approaches that focus on execution rather than prediction.

Correction season context (September/October) doesn’t change systematic rules but provides valuable framework for understanding why technical confluences often resolve dramatically during these historically volatile periods.

Fun Fact:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Non-Farm Payrolls announcements that occur when the S&P 500 is within 2% of all-time highs have historically produced average intraday moves 60% larger than typical NFP releases, due to increased sensitivity at technical extremes.

[Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – “Market Sensitivity Analysis at Technical Extremes”]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

p.s. Need help? Book a call with our team!