New Month YoYo. Crude Oil: Break Back Inside The Prior Range – Break-In Pullback Pattern Active – Range Highs To Range Lows

Well folks. Weird shit is happening again. And when weird shit happens, I usually like to take a step back.

The markets are reacting – perhaps overreacting yet again – to something positive from the Middle Eastern war.

A peace suggestion. Not talks. Suggestions. Bunny fingers. With conditions.
Is that like friends with benefits?

The indexes look more like lower highs with a rally on surprise news.

And I am not going to lie – just like that other Monday with the Trump tweet – I am baffled ‘t fuck.

Sometimes I think about Michael Burry’s departure from the markets to write newsletters. His reason was that he was confused by the market’s behavior. Then I am reminded that the markets can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. I forget who first said it – someone important – could have been Keynes, could have been Graham, could have been Tupac for all I know. Bah. Who cares.

So – going to stand out of the index swings for a minute. Let the dust settle, just like last week. And crikey, was that really just last week?

Focus on certainties rather than confusion.

Crude oil enters stage left.

This is continuing to be a clear chart to read despite the high correlation to the Middle Eastern conflict. Ranges are stacking nicely. We have just seen an attempted break up and out – but the MACD-v was at a bullish extreme – and expecting price to pause and, as long as we stayed above the range highs, a continuation was likely.

Peace news changes that. Thankfully no major overreaction – just the potential for oil to start flowing again. Price has now broken back inside the prior range. Break-in, pullback, and we can anticipate a trip from the range highs to the range lows. One of my 6 money making patterns. Clear as a bell.

Gold futures are equally easy to read.

Something mentioned last week: we had the potential to see price start to move higher – especially as we are in post-crash territory, over 30% from highs to the recent lows. Price turning around with a lovely V-entry on the daily and on the 60-minute chart it looks like a clear range. A clean break up and out and price is starting to trend nicely. Target 1 at $4,900. Target 2 at $5,000.

As for the Poppers yesterday – nothing from me. I was reading the MACD-v as in a bullish extreme on both SPX and RUT and was expecting price to grind it out in the morning with the potential for an afternoon breakout, just like we saw on Monday. A lucky break while I test out new ideas and concepts – but I certainly missed the bull break move. Can’t win them all.

Let’s see what Wednesday brings.

Market Briefing: Wed 1 Apr 2026

Wednesday 1 Apr – Q2 begins.

• Tuesday closed: S&P +1.33% / Nasdaq +1.8% / XLK +4% / strongest session since May on Iran de-escalation signal

  • Nvidia +5.6% / Microsoft +3.1% / Meta +6.67% led tech recovery

  • Energy faces mean reversion as oil drops / RH -17% after hours on weak guidance / McCormick -5.6% on Unilever deal

• Overnight extends gains: ES +0.49% / NQ +0.91% / RTY +0.70% / Gold +1.13% / VIX -1.98% to 24.74

• The catalyst: Iran’s president signaled readiness to end the war / Trump said US forces leave in two to three weeks

  • Has Wall Street front-run a ceasefire that doesn’t exist yet?

  • White House: Hormuz reopening is not a core objective

  • WTI -2.27% to $99.25 / still $28 above pre-war levels / BCA Research warns supply losses double by April 19

• Data today: ADP jobs and ISM manufacturing before the open / Fed speakers Musalem and Barr

• Tonight: Trump addresses the nation at 9pm ET / binary event – credible exit path sends risk higher / ambiguity sends oil back above $100

• Wednesday read: standing aside from index swings / focus on CL and Gold small account setups / 9pm ET is the only number that matters today

Market Snapshot

• ES: 6,599.75 / +32.25 (+0.49%) / overnight bid extending Tuesday’s relief

• YM: 46,797 / +234 (+0.50%) / Q2 opens

• NQ: 26,276.75 / +234 (+0.91%) / tech led Tuesday’s reversal

• RTY: 2,528.70 / +17.60 (+0.70%) / extending recovery

• GC: 4,752.70 / +53.10 (+1.13%) / V-entry confirmed / target $4,900 then $5,000

• CL: 99.25 / -2.31 (-2.27%) / break back inside prior range / break-in pullback active

• VIX: 24.74 / -0.50 (-1.98%) / easing but 9pm ET risk premium stays on

Tag ‘n Turn

Standing aside from index swings today. The index action looks confusing – lower highs on surprise news – and when the read is baffled ‘t fuck, the correct move is to let the dust settle. Same call as last Monday.

Crude Oil

Break back inside the prior range confirmed. Break-in pullback pattern active. Anticipating a trip from range highs to range lows. One of the 6 money making patterns. Clear as a bell.

The CL chart has been the clearest read in the room throughout this conflict – high correlation to the Middle Eastern news but the pattern sequence has been clean and readable regardless. Ranges stacking. Last week saw an attempted break up and out with the MACD-v at a bullish extreme. Monday’s group call flagged the expectation: pause, stay above range highs, then continuation. Peace news changed the dynamic – price has now broken back inside the prior range. That confirms the break-in setup. The pullback from current levels to the range lows is the anticipated move. The pattern is clear.

Gold

V-entry confirmed on the daily. Break up and out on the hourly. Trending nicely. Target 1 at $4,900. Target 2 at $5,000.

Gold was flagged last week as the interesting setup developing. Post-crash territory – over 30% from highs to the recent lows – with the V-entry forming on the daily chart exactly as described. The hourly chart has now confirmed the break up and out of the range and price is starting to trend nicely with the MACD-v confirming bull momentum. Target 1 is $4,900. Target 2 is $5,000. Clean, simple, readable.

Post Trade DeBriefing – 31 Mar 2026

SPX: No trades. Was reading the MACD-v as at a bullish extreme on both instruments and expected price to grind through the morning with a potential afternoon breakout, same as Monday. The morning grind arrived as expected. The afternoon breakout was bigger and cleaner than anticipated and I was not in it. A lucky break while testing new ideas and concepts. Can’t win them all.

RUT: No trades. Same read, same reasoning.

0 trades / 0 wins / 0 losses. The system is allowed a day off. The process is still intact.

Rounding Off

The 9pm Event Trump addresses the nation tonight on Iran.
White House framing: the objective is Iran’s missiles and drones, not Hormuz reopening. That distinction matters. A ceasefire that leaves the Strait closed is not the oil market resolution the rally has priced in. WTI is still $28 above pre-war levels despite Tuesday’s drop. BCA Research warns supply losses double by April 19. The binary is simple: credible exit path tonight sends risk higher and oil lower; ambiguity sends oil back above $100.

Data Before The Open ADP private payrolls and ISM manufacturing print this morning – the first hard data testing whether war-driven energy costs have visibly broken demand. Job openings fell to six-year lows in February. Any ADP miss confirms the Moody’s 49% recession model is tracking correctly. Fed speakers Musalem and Barr follow.

March Closed Ugly S&P worst monthly decline since 2022. Ten of eleven sectors negative. Dow and Nasdaq confirmed corrections. Only energy survived March – and now it faces mean reversion as oil retreats on peace hopes. Tuesday’s single session wiped two weeks of pain. Whether that is the start of Q2 recovery or another lower high is tonight’s question.

Michael Burry Had A Point He left active management because the markets were behaving in ways he could not confidently explain.
The markets can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. Keynes said it – or someone important, possibly Tupac. The correct response to baffled ‘t fuck is to focus on what is clear and wait for the rest to resolve itself. Oil and gold are clear. The indexes are not. Simple.

Current Status: Standing aside from index swings / CL break-in pullback active / Gold target $4,900 / Trump 9pm ET binary / ADP + ISM before open / April 6 Iran deadline still live

Expert Insights

The attribution has been contested over the years – various versions have been linked to Keynes, Gary Shilling, and others – but the observation is timeless regardless of who first said it. Tupac, as suggested, has not been confirmed as a source. The specific application today: the indexes are behaving in ways that do not fit the standard pattern. Lower highs on surprise news, a single session wiping two weeks of losses, a ceasefire rally without a ceasefire. Standing aside is not a loss. It is the correct response to irrational price action that has not yet resolved into a tradeable signal. Focus on oil. Focus on gold. Let the index dust settle.

[Source: Widely attributed to John Maynard Keynes – specific origin debated /
Gary Shilling attribution also documented – public domain]

1 – Iran’s president signaling readiness to end the war while the White House simultaneously states Hormuz reopening is not a core objective creates a specific gap between what the equity market priced and what the oil market heard. Equities rallied on peace. Oil fell but remains $28 above pre-war levels. [Source: White House briefing, public, 31 March 2026 | WTI crude price data, public]. The gap between the equity reading and the oil reading reflects different assumptions about what ending the war actually means for supply. A ceasefire that leaves Hormuz partially or fully restricted is not the supply resolution the S&P +1.33% session priced. Tonight’s 9pm address is where those two markets find out which one read the signal correctly.

2 – ADP private payrolls and ISM manufacturing printing on the same morning as the biggest equity relief session since May creates a specific sequencing risk. If either data point disappoints – and job openings at six-year lows in February is the relevant context – the market has less fundamental support for the Tuesday move than the headline suggests. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data, February 2026, bls.gov, public | ISM manufacturing historical data, ismworld.org, public]. The relief rally was sentiment-driven. The data this morning is the first test of whether the fundamental picture supports it.

3 – The Keynes attribution is genuinely contested in financial literature. The most documented version appears in Gary Shilling’s 1993 Forbes column, with Keynes association becoming widespread thereafter but without a confirmed primary source text. [Source: Gary Shilling, Forbes, 1993, public | Quoteinvestigator.com – “The Market Can Remain Irrational” research entry, public]

Beep.

Fun Fact:

The Keynes quote:

is one of the most cited in financial markets – and one of the most contested. Research into its origins suggests it appeared in print most clearly in a 1993 Forbes column by economist Gary Shilling, and its association with Keynes became widespread in the following decade without a confirmed primary source in Keynes’s own writing.

Alternative attributions include A. Gary Shilling himself as the actual author. Keynes did write extensively about market irrationality in his 1936 work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money – so the sentiment is genuinely his, even if the specific phrasing may not be.

Tupac Shakur’s contribution to the literature on market irrationality remains unverified.

[Source: John Maynard Keynes – The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936, public domain |
Quoteinvestigator.com – “The Market Can Remain Irrational” research entry, public]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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