New Month. New Sell-Off. Same Pesky Consolidation. NFP Week Fun. | SPX Market Briefing | 1 Dec 2025

Well folks, it’s another new month post-Thanksgiving and we wake up to a little sell-off on the pre-market futures.

Nothing too serious but a little more than normal – between 0.5% and 1% across the 4 main indexes.

That new digital store of wealth BTC is holding up – no wait – that also shit the bed pushing past -5% at one point, and the day is barely started.

It looks like last week’s rally is shaping up to be a dead cat bounce and we could see some further bear moves there.

Back on the indexes we can still see that pesky consolidation we have been discussing for weeks and has not broken.

Sure the boundaries have been tested and as we are near the upper boundary levels, with nothing new developing on the horizon, then the line of least resistance appears to be back down again.

On my usual swing setups SPX is still bullish but with the overnight futures down – we could be gapping down through my failure point to flip back to bearish below 6785.

Over on RUT there is a little more wiggle room by comparison but below 2460 will flip it back to the bear side of things.

We also have a full round of news for the first time since the shutdown, so it’s gonna be interesting to see how the market digests things as there looks like there will be no data released for that period and we jump straight to the most recent market and economic data.

NFP is going to be FUUuuN FUN FUN!

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SPX Market Briefing:

Monday December opens post-Thanksgiving with pre-market sell-off (futures down 0.5%-1% across 4 main indexes, nothing too serious but more than normal),

BTC shit the bed pushing past -5% (last week’s rally shaping up as dead cat bounce, further bear moves likely), pesky consolidation still not broken after weeks of discussion (boundaries tested near upper levels, nothing new developing on horizon, line of least resistance back down),

SPX still bullish but overnight futures down (could gap through failure point to flip bearish below 6785),

RUT more wiggle room (below 2460 flips bearish), full round of news for first time since shutdown (no data for shutdown period, jumping straight to most recent, NFP going to be FUUuuN FUN FUN).

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: Bullish Above (Flipped) 6810.29, PFZ 6786.26, Target Pending, current 6,849 – bearish below 6785

• RUT: Bullish Above (Flipped) 2463.62, PFZ 2459.29, Target Pending, current 2,500 – bearish below 2460

• ES: 6,823.75, down from highs

• YM: 47,554

• NQ: 25,317.50

• RTY: 2,486.7

• GC: 4,296.9

• CL: 59.68

• VIX: 17.93

• BTC/USD: 86,713.23, shit the bed -5%+

New Month Sell-Off

Well folks, it’s another new month post-Thanksgiving and we wake up to a little sell-off on the pre-market futures.

December 1st. New month. Futures red. Classic.

Nothing too serious but a little more than normal – between 0.5% and 1% across the 4 main indexes.

ES, YM, NQ, RTY – all showing the same pattern. Red across the board but not panic territory.

Current Status: Pre-market sell-off 0.5%-1%, nothing too serious

BTC Dead Cat Bounce

That new digital store of wealth BTC is holding up – no wait – that shit the bed pushing past -5% at one point, and the day is barely started.

Digital gold? More like digital anvil this morning. Down hard.

It looks like last week’s rally is shaping up to be a dead cat bounce and we could see some further bear moves there.

When the bounce doesn’t hold, you know what’s coming. More downside.

Current Status: BTC dead cat bounce confirmed, further bear moves likely

Pesky Consolidation Continues

Back on the indexes we can still see that pesky consolidation we have been discussing for weeks and has not broken.

Same consolidation. Same range. Same discussion. Weeks now.

Sure the boundaries have been tested and as we are near the upper boundary levels, with nothing new developing on the horizon, then the line of least resistance appears to be back down again.

Upper boundary tested. Nothing new. Path of least resistance = down.

Current Status: Consolidation intact, line of least resistance back down

SPX Swing Setup

On my usual swing setups SPX is still bullish but with the overnight futures down – we could be gapping down through my failure point to flip back to bearish below 6785.

SPX TnT: Bullish Above 6810.29. PFZ 6786.26. Target Pending.

Failure point at 6785. Gap down through that = bearish flip.

Current Status: SPX bullish but watching 6785 for bearish flip

RUT Swing Setup

Over on RUT there is a little more wiggle room by comparison but below 2460 will flip it back to the bear side of things.

RUT TnT: Bullish Above 2463.62. PFZ 2459.29. Target Pending.

More wiggle room than SPX. But 2460 is the line in the sand.

Current Status: RUT bullish, more wiggle room, 2460 bearish flip level

News Week Incoming

We also have a full round of news for the first time since the shutdown, so it’s gonna be interesting to see how the market digests things as there looks like there will be no data for that period and we jump straight to the most recent market and economic data.

First proper news week since the shutdown. No data for the shutdown period. Jumping straight to fresh numbers.

NFP is going to be FUUuuN FUN FUN!

This week’s calendar:

• Mon Dec 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI 10am (Forecast 49.0, Previous 48.7)

• Wed Dec 3: ADP Non-Farm Employment 8:15am (Forecast 19K vs Previous 42K), ISM Services PMI 10am

• Thu Dec 4: Unemployment Claims 8:30am (Forecast 220K, Previous 216K)

• Fri Dec 5: Core PCE Price Index, UoM Consumer Sentiment, UoM Inflation Expectations

ADP forecast at 19K vs previous 42K. That’s a big drop if it comes in. Market will be watching.

Current Status: Full news week, NFP Friday, market digestion incoming

Expert Insights

The Observation: When consolidation refuses to break after weeks of testing boundaries and you’re sitting near the upper levels with no new catalyst on the horizon, the market tends to take the path of least resistance. That path points down.

The Fix: Don’t fight the consolidation. The boundaries have been tested. When nothing new develops to push through, systematic traders wait for the break or prepare for the fade. SPX below 6785 and RUT below 2460 flip the script to bearish. Those are your lines. Watch them. React to them. Don’t predict around them.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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