Mr Theta cashes crude, Dow rejects, is this finally the top?

Friday’s tape is gloriously mixed: the indexes are finally throwing rejection candles, crude options got tucked away early courtesy of Mr Theta, and Micron rocked up on the dance card.

Market Snapshot

Here’s where the overnight tape has parked us before we get into the reads.

• ES1 / SPX e-minis: 7,410.50, -0.31%. Melted off NATH and grinding lower with feeble push attempts

• YM1 / Uncle Dow: 52,430, -0.03%. Tested new highs again, clear rejection candle, again

• NQ1 / NazQuack: 29,531, -0.77%. Grinding lower off NATH, weakest of the indexes today

• RTY1 / Uncle Russ: 3,032.6, -0.06%. Tested new highs and rejected, same story as Dow

• VIX: 19.63, +3.97%. Holding steady and elevated, proud and at attention

• GC1 / Gold: 4,047.3, +0.14%. Still a head scratcher, reassessing

• CL1 / Crude: 70.02, -2.03%. Options exit cashed at target, the gap fill remains on the table

• BTCUSD: 60,531, +1.39%. No change, the bears need to get going

The Indexes: Dow rejects, SPX grinds

SPX and NazQuack have already melted off NATH and continue to grind lower, with attempts at pushing higher that aren’t sticking. Meanwhile Dow and Uncle Russ are doing the bolder version of the same trade, tagging fresh highs and getting slapped right back with a clear rejection candle. Again.

Add in the VIX holding steady and elevated, proud and at attention like a good soldier who has spotted movement on the horizon, and the question worth sitting with is whether the broader top is finally in.

Is this the top? Finally?

RUT: Bull swing hedged, bear TnT rolling

RUT swings are a little interesting today. My ill-fated bull swing from Monday was looking good, and then it wasn’t. The big account was a simple closure of the broken wing butterfly. The small account challenge took a standard credit spread, and I chose to hedge it off.

What that hedge has produced is a small loss zone, with the upside that if prices whip back and forth there’s the potential for a double profit. If just one side wins, it’s basically a little better than breakeven.

I’ve also chosen to get the bear swings rolling again with a new TnT setup, and to stop second-guessing my system.

Follow the process.

Crude Oil: Mr Theta cashes the target early

Crude oil is looking great. We saw another profitable time-out exit on the options, which once again reinforces why I like them over futures. If I were waiting for the target, I’d be sweating even more bullets sitting through yesterday’s rally. As it was, the target was hit despite that. Thank you Mr Theta.

The only snag is there was a lovely overnight move right off the VWAP again, but such is the way of things. Overall this has been a great position to nibble in and out of during its move to $65, and it ain’t over yet. The gap has been reached, and the gap fill is still on the table.

Thank you Mr Theta.

Micron (MU): Guest spot with the 6 money making patterns

Micron is making a guest appearance on the dance card today, as mentioned yesterday. The setup on the daily chart made it worth looking at, and the premarket showed a lovely sideways range we can use to trade the breakout, or the range reversals off, using my 6 money making patterns.

Prices attempted to break out, no pullback entry. Then we saw a lovely v-entry with price breaking back into the range, and a bear run all the way down.

I’ll do a more detailed breakdown on a separate analysis post.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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