Month End Shenanigans: Yoyo Moves Meet October Expectations | SPX Market Briefing | 29 Sep 2025

What an end to the week – last Friday of the month too – and the usual shenanigans seemed to have happened with yoyo moves across multiple instruments. The systematic approach handled it all with mechanical precision whilst discretionary traders no doubt got whipsawed by the month-end nonsense.

Looking towards the new week, we face the end-of-month transitions and start-of-month news rounds. It could well be an interesting week to kick off the end of September and start of October properly.

Whilst I’m writing this on Sunday, I don’t expect Monday to be “Black” despite my best expectations for a September sell-off now coming to a polite but firm end. Roll on October – here we come!

The beauty of systematic trading? It doesn’t matter whether crash predictions materialize or market expectations prove wrong. The mechanical approach simply responds to what actually happens rather than what should happen.

SPX Market Briefing:

Friday’s month-end action provided the perfect reminder why systematic approaches trump emotional market timing every time.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX/RUT: Both bullish into new week after Tag ‘n Turn from BB lows

• PFZ Zones: Remain intact for bear “flip” entries if systematic signals develop

• /CL Futures: Flat after pin bar rejection, expecting range re-entry assessment

SPX Tag ‘n Turn Execution:

SPX TnT did exactly what it’s designed to do – tagged and turned from the Bollinger Band low, reacted at Thursday’s close and gap level, and that’s when I decided to take the quick win and enjoy the weekend as planned in Friday’s morning briefing.

The systematic beauty lies in the mechanical execution. No emotional attachment to crash predictions, no overthinking September seasonality – simply following price action signals and taking profits when systematic targets align with weekend planning.

RUT Carbon Copy Playbook:

RUT delivered pretty much a carbon copy playbook and trading decisions. When systematic approaches work across multiple instruments simultaneously, it validates the mechanical framework rather than suggesting lucky timing.

Both indices are bullish coming into the new week, and I’ll look for new entry swings. Their respective PFZ zones remain intact for the “flip” should bear entries become systematically necessary.

Crude Oil Reality Check:

/CL crude oil futures had a short-lived breakout, and whilst we did have nice continuation initially, the clear pin bar rejection influenced my decision to go flat and take the small win for the weekend.

The daily chart followed the same pattern, and I’d expect a brief pause followed by a break back into the prior range as the likely next action. Time will tell, and I shall evaluate the next move with Asian session data on Monday.

Week Ahead Calendar:

The transition from September’s end to October’s beginning brings several systematic considerations:

• Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (7.15M forecast vs 7.18M previous)

• Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Thursday: Unemployment Claims

• Friday: Non-Farm Employment, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI

Employment data dominance suggests potential volatility for Premium and Lazy Popper opportunities.

Today’s Systematic Plan:

• Cash Markets: Seek fresh swing entries on bullish SPX/RUT positioning

• Premium/Lazy Poppers: Await opening bell for fast action and theta collection

• /CL: Evaluate Asian session data for range re-entry assessment

The Premium Popper and Lazy Popper trades simply await the opening bell for fast action and lazy theta collection – as usual.

Fun Fact:

J-Com: The $3 Billion Typo That Made Millionaires

In 2005, a Japanese trader tried to sell 1 share for ¥610,000 but accidentally sold 610,000 shares for ¥1 each. Oops became “Oh damn!”

This is the story of how one fat finger created instant millionaires and instant therapy candidates. A Mizuho Securities trader meant to sell 1 share of J-Com Co. for ¥610,000 (about $6,400), but instead sold 610,000 shares for ¥1 each.

That’s like trying to sell one car and accidentally putting your entire car dealership on Craigslist for $1 total. The order was for 42 times more shares than the company had outstanding—basically selling shares that didn’t exist for a company that wasn’t worth selling. Sharp-eyed traders like Takashi Kotegawa (our ramen-eating hero) spotted the error and bought up thousands of shares at rock-bottom prices.

When the dust settled, Kotegawa made $20 million in about 16 minutes, while Mizuho lost their entire quarterly profit.

The moral of the story: double-check your zeros, and maybe invest in better keyboards.
One comma can be the difference between early retirement and early unemployment! ‍

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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