Momentum Turn Fires SPX While Crude Wooshes Through Prior Range Highs

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Bears are having a proper follow-through moment overnight. Yesterday’s bear moves on the stock indexes are pushing through into today’s tape, with three of the four majors sliding lower and only Sleepy Uncle Dow left chasing NATHs on his own. VIX is starting to elevate, which supports the fear-and-downslide read. Meanwhile crude has gone woosh, and there’s a new TnT indication we need to look at.

Market Snapshot

Overnight moves are seeing some bearish follow-through after yesterday’s bear moves on the stock indexes. Interestingly, it’s Sleepy Uncle Dow trying to hit NATHs again while the other three stock indexes are already exhausted and sliding lower. VIX is starting to elevate to support the fear-and-downslide read. Gold is attempting the turn and the bull move may be about ready to try again. BTC looks like it might be grinding into a sideways range here, and we know the basing moves can last a long time at the moment, so patience is going to be key again. Crude oil is pumping higher, we’ll look at that in more detail below.

• ES (SPX) 7,532.75, -0.25%. Bearish follow-through into today’s tape.

• YM (Uncle Dow) 52,995, -0.38%. Still trying to hit NATHs, but the pull-back is showing overnight.

• NQ (NazQuack) 29,284, -0.46%. Exhausted and sliding.

• RTY (Uncle Russ) 2,982.8, -0.50%. Sliding with the pack, still inside the range.

• GC (Gold) 4,127.3, +0.26%. Attempting the turn, bull move may be about ready to try again.

• CL (Crude) 72.48, +0.39%. Wooshing higher, more below.

• BTC 62,632.67, -1.09%. Grinding into a sideways range, patience.

• VIX 16.57, +2.66%. Elevating to support the downside read.

SPX – Momentum Turn Warning Fires, Lock In The Bull Profits

Swings are swinging. What’s interesting is that one of the new indications fired off yesterday. I’ll need to make the details stay more permanent, but for now you can pop it in replay mode and scroll it back to that orange/yellow diamond bar indication. That’s where you’ll see the note.

The warning. Momentum is turning on the bull swing. 66 to 99% of the time it will keep moving the other way once this fires. That’s the historical read on the indication. It’s not an auto-exit signal, but it’s a nudge to take partial or tighten up.

The action. I don’t want to let the bull profits turn into any type of loss. The overnight futures are already pushing lower. If profits haven’t been taken or locked in, now is the time to do it.

Lock it in before the swing does it for you.

Uncle Russ – Range Cleaner, Breakout Coming Into Focus

Uncle Russ’s range is a lot clearer with the TnT tool turned off. The quality scoring for the setups continued to be low confidence, so staying out until the breakout was exactly the right thing to do.

Which we may get and see today.

Patience paid, now we watch for the break.

Crude Oil – Woosh Through The Prior Range Highs

Woosh. Crude broke back into the prior range and then whollop, straight through the prior range highs during yesterday’s active session and today’s overnight pre-market.

Context. The bull move was not unexpected, we called it yesterday. The speed of the movement and the size of the movement is what caught even us off-guard.

Called the direction, the tape did the rest.

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