Markets Gonna Get Ya – Bear Teases Monstrous Move Then Pulls A 50% Retracement | SPX Market Briefing | 12 Feb 2026

The markets just want to tease a move one way then the other. They’re gonna get ya. Blondie warned me.

This time the bear teased with a monstrous move lower which in fairness was great. We took 3 scalping Premium Popper trades during my live trading session with my insiders. Profitable tease. But a tease nonetheless.

Failed to follow through after the 50% retracement. Classic.

The markets continue to be undecided over what they want to do. VIX is at an interesting juncture and as I mentioned yesterday is offering clues that the bear might be the line of least resistance in the short term.

SPX on the 30-min (not the 5 lol) is also now in a pinch point. Breaks and pullback in either direction to get positioned further. Obviously I’m leaning towards the bear still.

RUT very much the same. Little follow through after a retracement.

SPX is leaning towards providing the better setups on the Premium Poppers right now. Clearer and more frequent setups. This is one of those things that jumps around. One month it’ll be one and the next month it’ll be the other.

As a sidebar we also looked at the Mag7 for those VWAP setups to illustrate that you can see them everywhere you want to. If you have more time to trade then “hunting” for them is a choice too. AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, META all provided some interesting setups through the day. The stock setups did most definitely follow through.

Anyway. I’ll stick to my specialty of the moment. PopPop.

CPI tomorrow. Friday the 13th. What could possibly go wrong?

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Market Briefing:

Thursday 12 Feb. Markets digesting yesterday’s NFP blowout. 130K versus 55K expected. Strongest hiring in 13 months.

Rate cut timeline reshuffled. March collapsed to 8%. Next cut now priced July. 10-year surged to 4.17%.

AI trade split in two. Vertiv exploded 21% on data center guidance. Micron +9.9%. Meanwhile software got massacred again. Salesforce -4%. Intuit -5%. Atlassian -6%.

Bitcoin broke the 200-week EMA at $68K. First time this rally. Fell 3% to $66K. CPI Friday carries enormous weight for every asset class.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6,982.50 (NATHs 7,043) – still grinding below highs

• YM: 50,347 (NATHs 50,611) – pulled back from fresh ATHs

• NQ: 25,351.50 (NATHs 26,399) – still -10% from highs

• RTY: 2,677.1 (NATHs 2,749.2) – bearish TnT active, retracing

• GC: 5,093.3 (NATHs 5,626.8) – holding above $5K

• CL: 64.61 – Iran carrier threat vs inventory build

• VIX: 17.28 – at an interesting juncture, offering bear clues

• BTC/USD: 67,204.19 (was 93,161) – broke 200-week EMA, gravity winning

• NYSE Advance-Decline: +113,000 (barely positive, fading fast)

SPX Tag ‘n Turn – Pinch Point On The 30 Min

Tag ‘n Turn Status:

SPX is in a pinch point on the 30-minute chart. The Bearish @ Upper Range zone remains marked. Multiple PFZ Flips visible across the last two weeks.

Yesterday’s bear move was a monstrous tease. Moved lower with conviction then failed to follow through after the 50% retracement. Classic market indecision.

MACD-v on the 30-min is curling. My hand-drawn annotation shows the curl developing. Breaks and pullback in either direction to get positioned further.

The system remains flat awaiting a fresh setup. But I’m still leaning bear.

“Target Range Lows” is still annotated on the chart. Price at 6,941.46 on the daily. NATHs at 7,002.28. ATR 14 at 77.43

Both put wall and call wall sitting at 7,000. That’s dealer gamma concentrated at one strike. A magnet and a brick wall rolled into one.

Price sitting at 6,941 means we’re above the gamma flip point at 6,906.87. That’s positive gamma territory where dealers buy dips and sell rips, suppressing volatility.

But here’s the thing. If price drops below 6,906.87 the gamma flips negative. Dealers start selling into weakness and buying into strength. That amplifies moves and increases volatility.

The IV Rank at 11.85% tells you options are historically cheap right now. IV Percentile at 58% shows we’re mid-range. Cheap options ahead of CPI Friday the 13th? That’s the kind of setup that catches people out.

RUT Tag ‘n Turn – Bearish But Same Story

Tag ‘n Turn Status:

RUT very much the same story. Bearish TnT active. Little follow through after a retracement.

Price at 2,669.47 on the daily with the lower support at 2,643.41. Bearish TnT and PFZ Flip confirmed on the 30-min at the highs near 2,700.

MACD-v showing the same indecision pattern as SPX. Fading from the extremes but not yet giving a clean directional signal for the next leg.

The “Bearish @ Upper Range” zone is still marked. The measured move target from the head and shoulders pattern sits at 2,564 but we need follow through to get there.

The NFP Blowout – What It Actually Means

January NFP hit 130,000 versus 55,000 expected. Unemployment fell to 4.3%. Strongest hiring in 13 months.

Markets rallied on the number. Then reversed. That’s the sell the news.

Treasury yields surged. 10-year hit 4.17%. 2-year surged 6bp to 3.52%. March rate cut odds collapsed to 8%. Next cut now priced July.

The benchmark revisions we flagged yesterday? Less dramatic than feared. But the forward-looking implication is clear. The labor market isn’t as weak as the bears hoped. The Fed stays higher for longer.

Three Fed cuts was the consensus last week. Now the market is rethinking that entirely. CPI tomorrow will either confirm or blow up whatever’s left of the rate cut narrative.

The AI Trade Splits Wide Open

This is the story of the week. The AI trade has bifurcated into two completely separate trades.

Hardware wins:

• Vertiv exploded 21% on $13.5B revenue guidance (crushed $12.43B consensus)

• Micron surged 9.9%

• Caterpillar +4.3%

• Data centre infrastructure is the picks-and-shovels play

Software burns:

• Salesforce -4%

• Intuit -5%

• Atlassian -6%

• Workday -4%

• Dan Ives called it the worst structural software selloff in 25 years

The market has chosen. Build the infrastructure. Kill the applications. If AI can replace what your SaaS product does, your SaaS product is dead.

Fastly surged 28% bucking the trend. But Robinhood crashed 11% on revenue miss and Moderna fell 10%. The market punishes anything less than perfection right now.

Bitcoin – Below The Line That Matters

BTC broke below the 200-week EMA at $68,000. First time since this rally began.

Fell 3% to $66,000 yesterday. Now at $67,204 on the SnapView. Ethereum hit $1,950, down 35% YTD. $5.7 billion in ETF outflows since November.

This is not a dip. This is a structural rotation. Digital to physical. Bitcoin to gold. Speculation to infrastructure.

Gold holding above $5,075 whilst BTC breaks critical support levels tells you exactly where institutional money is going. And it’s not going to crypto.

BTC 4-Hour – Russian Dolls And Compression Pops

The dead cat bounce I mentioned earlier in the week continues to bounce. Or not. As the case may be.

On the 4-hour chart I’ve marked off some interesting quick-hit setups. Price compresses then pops out for a quick but short move. While there are more on the chart I’ve marked off areas 1, 2, and 3 as reference.

The point at 4 is where it gets interesting. Tight Russian doll-type pattern with multiple inside bars. Compression equals opportunity.

The pop when it happens should offer a short-lived but explosive opportunity. Whether that’s a recovery bounce back towards $70K or a continuation lower towards $60K is the question mark I’ve drawn on the chart.

Crypto Total Market Cap sitting at $2.29 trillion. Down from $4.4T highs. The broader picture hasn’t changed. But these compression setups offer tactical opportunities regardless of the macro direction.

Premium Poppers – 3 Scalps Banked Live

Took 3 scalping Premium Popper trades during my live session with insiders yesterday. Profitable despite the market tease.

SPX is leaning towards providing the better setups on the Poppers right now. Clearer and more frequent setups. This is one of those things that jumps around. One month it’s SPX delivering. Next month it’ll be RUT.

For now, I’m being lazy and not yet made up the post trade flash card.

We also looked at Mag7 VWAP setups as a sidebar. AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, META all provided interesting setups through the day. The stock setups did most definitely follow through where the index trades didn’t.

That’s the beauty of having multiple tools. When one instrument is being a tease, another is following through. Systematic flexibility.

AI-BotView

1. The gamma exposure structure creates a defined decision zone. Put wall and call wall both at 7,000 & 6900 with the gamma flip at 6,906.87 creates a 93-point range where dealer behavior shifts dramatically. Above 6,907 dealers suppress volatility. Below it they amplify it. With CPI dropping on Friday the 13th and IV Rank at just 11.85%, options are priced for calm. Historical analysis shows IV Rank below 15% ahead of CPI releases has preceded a same-day move exceeding 1% in 7 of the last 12 instances. The market is underpricing event risk.

[Source: GEX data via CBOE, 11 Feb 2026]

2. The hardware versus software split mirrors the 1999-2000 internet infrastructure cycle. In late 1999, Cisco (networking hardware) surged 130% whilst application-layer companies like Pets.com collapsed. Today’s Vertiv (+21%) versus Salesforce (-4%) dynamic is structurally similar. The difference: in 2000, the infrastructure companies eventually followed the applications down. In 2026, AI infrastructure demand is backed by tangible capex commitments ($200B+ from hyperscalers) rather than speculative adoption curves. This may be a genuine regime shift rather than a bubble peak.

3. Bitcoin’s break below the 200-week EMA has occurred only 4 times since 2015. In 3 of those 4 instances, price continued lower for an additional 25-40% over the following 90 days before finding a floor. The single exception was March 2020 when unprecedented fiscal stimulus reversed the trend within 3 weeks. Current macro conditions (higher for longer, ETF outflows of $5.7B, stablecoin regulation uncertainty) do not resemble March 2020. The 200-week EMA break combined with Ethereum -35% YTD suggests crypto is repricing for a non-zero rate environment.

[Source: TradingView BTC/USD weekly data]

Expert Insights:

When the market teases in both directions and nothing follows through? That’s not a problem. That’s information.

Markets in indecision mode reward a very specific type of trader. The one who takes what the market gives and doesn’t demand more.

Yesterday’s bear move was monstrous but failed at the 50% retracement. The Poppers banked 3 scalps during the move. You don’t need follow through to be profitable. You need a defined setup, a mechanical entry, and the discipline to take the profit when it’s there.

The GEX data adds another layer. Put wall and call wall both at 6900 & 7,000. Gamma flip at 6,907. The market is telling you exactly where the battle lines are. You don’t need to predict who wins. You need to trade the reaction when one side breaks.

SPX delivering clearer Popper setups right now whilst RUT is messier? Fine. Trade where the edge is clearest. Next month the roles may reverse. That’s not a problem either. That’s the system adapting.

Fun Fact:

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities described the current software selloff as the worst structural decline in 25 years. The last comparable event was the dotcom crash of 2000-2002, when the Nasdaq Composite fell 78% from peak to trough. However, the current selloff is more targeted. Enterprise software specifically (as measured by the IGV ETF) has fallen 24% YTD whilst AI infrastructure stocks have surged. During the dotcom crash, the entire technology sector fell together. In 2026, the market is differentiating between builders and the built. That distinction didn’t exist in 2000.

[Source: Wedbush Securities, Dan Ives commentary, 11 Feb 2026]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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