Just Like That, the Bear Scare Is Off the Table. The Grind Is Real. Triple Witching Is Here.

Just like that, the bear scare is off the table.

What the heck do we have to do to get more than a one or two day rally or sell-off in this market? The indexes attempted to push lower. I got super excited. And then… tumbleweed. Sideways movement. Fine. fuck-it, let’s be bullish.

This is so reminiscent of 2007/08 it’s unsettling. The environment was just like this back then – reality being ignored for 12 to 18 months. Weird things happening. The world at odds with each other. Markets just shrugging it off. And then – pop. One day the shrug stops working. That day may not be today. But the comparison sits there.

The grind is real.

On the bright side: Triple Witching Friday. Quarterly options and futures expiry. Volume will surge. Swings will be violent. Prices will yoyo, hoohoo, and then yeehaw. There will be opportunity in the chaos if you stay disciplined.

Powered down yesterday and did other things. Not looking at the charts at all. The community smashed the premium poppers regardless – more on that below once the slides are ready.

Market Briefing:

• Friday 20 Mar. Triple Witching – quarterly options and futures expiry.

• Thursday: S&P -0.27% to -0.44%, Dow breaking its 200-day MA for the first time since June 2025. S&P 500 pressing its own 200-day at 6,615 – not breached since May 2025.

• Four consecutive losing weeks. Netanyahu comments on Hormuz reopening pulled Brent back from $119 intraday to $108.65 close.

• Futures cautiously green this morning – S&P +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.06%, Dow +0.19%.

• SPX TnT flipped bullish. RUT similar.

  • ADD at extreme lows.

  • MACDv at extremes on both.

• Oil showing a 6MMPs turn off range lows.

• The bear scare is off the table for now.

Market Snapshot

• ES: 6,651.00 / cautiously green / pressing 200-day MA at 6,615

• YM: 46,308 / broke 200-day Thursday for first time since June 2025

• NQ: 24,505.75 / AI trade tired / Nvidia -1% Wednesday despite GTC

• RTY: 2,500.0

• GC: 4,679.4 / fell ~3% Wednesday on PPI shock / war premium dented

• CL: 95.48 / Brent $108.65 close / briefly $119 intraday Thursday / Netanyahu comments pulled it back

• VIX: 24.48 / elevated / Triple Witching amplifies everything today

• BTC/USD: 70,619 / coiling / CLARITY Act Senate markup approaching

Tag ‘n Turn

Both instruments flipped bullish and the conditions support the read – ADD at extreme lows and MACDv at extremes on both suggest a pause at minimum and potentially a push higher.

The ADD has been at bear extremes for several days. That kind of oversold breadth condition has historically provided the fuel for short-covering bounces. The MACDv on both instruments is also at an extreme that suggests the selling momentum may be exhausted. Neither of these is a guarantee – but the setup for a bullish move is more credible this morning than it has been for a week.

SPX Analysis

Bullish. Again. TnT flipped. ADD at extreme lows. MACDv at bear extreme. The conditions are there for a push higher.

The TnT has printed Bullish Above 6,586.84 with a PFZ at 6,557.82 and a target of 6,770.41. The Bollinger Bands on the 30-minute chart are pinching – that compression is the coil before the next directional move. The previous bear break now looks like it could reverse back inside the range – the bulls have the setup they need if they can hold above the key levels today.

The 200-day MA at 6,615 is the line in the sand. A clean hold above there into the close would be significant given four losing weeks.

Current Status: Bullish Above 6,586.84 / PFZ 6,557.82 / Target 6,770.41 / ATR 95.60 / 200-day MA 6,615 the key level today

RUT Analysis

Uncle Russell looks very similar to SPX. Bollinger bands pinching. Previous bear break looks like a break back in. Bullish TnT in place.

Bullish Above 2,465.42 / PFZ 2,447.72 / Target 2,540.07. The RUT chart mirrors the SPX setup – the BB compression is there, the previous breakdown is now showing signs of being absorbed, and the TnT is pointing bullish. If SPX pushes higher today RUT has the fuel to follow.

Current Status: Bullish Above 2,465.42 / PFZ 2,447.72 / Target 2,540.07 / BB pinching / break back in setting up

After Action Report – 19 Mar 2026 | Bed ‘n Breakfast

Powered down yesterday. The community smashed it without me – slides coming when I stop being lazy.

The one trade from the day before tells the story on its own. SPX Bead ‘n Breakfast – 1 trade, $85 on the index, 89.7% ROC. Clean. Done before breakfast. That is the BnB doing exactly what it is supposed to do.

Yesterday the community put in a full day on the Premium Poppers despite the meandering price action. Full breakdown and slides landing later this week.

Current Status: BnB – 1 trade / 1 win / $85 / 89.7% ROC / community PP results incoming

Fun With Futures – Oil

While the world is screaming for lower oil prices, the chart is showing a clear turn off range lows.

This is 6 Money Making Patterns #1 – range low bounce. WTI tested the range lows around $92.10, held, and the price action is now nudging higher. The target is the top of the range – annotated on the chart – where the picture can be reassessed. Netanyahu’s comments about helping reopen the Strait pulled Brent from $119 back to $108.65 yesterday. That kind of intraday $10 move tells you how much geopolitical premium is priced in – and how quickly it can shift.

The range play is simple: price does what it has been doing, grinds back towards range highs around $100, and we reassess from there. The world screaming lower is the sentiment backdrop that makes range low bounces work.

Current Status: 6MMPs range low bounce in play / range highs ~$100 target / reassess at the top / WTI $95.48.

Rounding Off

Triple Witching amplifies everything today. Quarterly options and futures expiry means volume surges and intraday swings get exaggerated in both directions. This is not a day for aggressive positioning – it is a day for disciplined execution of clear setups and quick exits when the setup is done. The Dow is sitting on its 200-day. The S&P 500 is sitting on its 200-day. Any significant move through those levels in either direction on a Triple Witching Friday will be amplified by the mechanics of expiry.

The 2007/08 parallel. This feels like that environment – the world genuinely falling apart, reality being ignored, markets grinding sideways, one or two day moves in each direction, no follow-through. That lasted 12 to 18 months before the pop. The comparison is not a prediction – it is a reminder that the grind can last much longer than it feels like it should. The process stays the same regardless of whether the pop is six weeks away or six months.

Netanyahu said Israel is helping reopen Hormuz. Markets want to believe it. Brent pulled back from $119 to $108.65 on those comments. Whether the Strait actually reopens or the comments are the first move in a diplomatic process is the question that will define the next macro move. Trump issued a 60-day Jones Act waiver for oil, gas and coal shipments. FedEx posted $5.25 EPS beating estimates – the one clean positive from Thursday’s session.

Current Status: Triple Witching today / 200-day MAs the lines to watch / Netanyahu Hormuz comments / Jones Act waiver / FedEx beat

Expert Insights

Three weeks of sideways grinding with one or two day moves in each direction. Three weeks of getting excited about a bear move that doesn’t follow through. Three weeks of the market absorbing genuinely extraordinary news and then shrugging.

Buffett’s point is that the patient trade is usually the right one. The impatient trade is the one that chases every 1% move and gets ground down by the friction. Triple Witching Friday is specifically designed to test patience – the moves look meaningful, the volume feels decisive, and most of it is mechanical noise from expiry mechanics.

The chart says bullish on both instruments this morning. The process says: take the setup, define the exit, let the trade run. The macro backdrop is the same as it was yesterday. The chart changed. Follow the chart.

[Source: Warren Buffett quote – widely attributed, public domain | CME Triple Witching calendar – public | EIA CL range data]

Beep-Beep.

1 – The S&P 500 sitting on its 200-day moving average on Triple Witching Friday is a specific confluence that has historically produced outsized intraday moves. The 200-day is watched by systematic funds as a rule-based trigger for position changes. [Source: S&P 500 historical 200-day MA data, public]. When the price sits directly on that level going into an options expiry with elevated VIX, the gamma mechanics of expiring contracts interact with the systematic triggers to amplify whatever directional move begins at the open. This is not a prediction of direction – it is a warning that the size of the move, whatever direction it goes, may be larger than the underlying fundamentals justify.

2 – The Netanyahu Hormuz comment is a market-moving diplomatic signal regardless of whether it results in Hormuz reopening. The intraday oil move from $119 to $108.65 represents approximately $11 per barrel on a single comment from one leader. [Source: Reuters, Bloomberg geopolitical coverage, 19 March 2026, public]. The market has demonstrated that it is prepared to price significant oil premium relief on verbal signals alone. This creates a two-way risk: if Hormuz genuinely moves toward reopening the oil trade unwind would be rapid and significant; if the comment proves to be preliminary positioning the reversal would be equally sharp. The asymmetry favors watching the $100 level on Brent as the first meaningful test.

3 – The 2007/08 parallel identified has a specific technical signature: low-volatility grinding in the presence of deteriorating fundamentals followed by a sudden volatility regime change. The VIX averaged approximately 13-15 in 2006-early 2007 despite the subprime signals building. [Source: CBOE VIX historical data, public]. Current VIX at 24.48 is already elevated relative to that pre-GFC baseline – suggesting the market is pricing more risk than the 2007/08 pre-pop period did. This does not invalidate the parallel – it suggests the current environment may be pricing the warning signs that the 2007/08 market ignored until it was too late.

Beep.

In Other News…

The S&P 500 spent Thursday sitting on its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. The Dow broke below its equivalent for the first time since June 2025. Futures are cautiously green Friday morning. Netanyahu said Israel is helping reopen Hormuz. Brent dropped from $119 to $108.65 on the comment. The market wants to believe it. The Strait is still closed.

This is the fourth consecutive week of losses. In that time the market has absorbed: a sealed shipping strait, naval mines, 90-plus military strikes, an Iranian supreme leader’s assassination and his replacement’s first policy statement, an IEA record reserve release that moved prices by less than a diplomatic comment, a hawkish Fed dot plot, PPI at its biggest monthly jump in a year, and Nvidia posting a $1 trillion forecast while closing down 1%. At some point the shrug stops working. The question is when.

FedEx posted $5.25 EPS and beat estimates. This would normally be a straightforward positive. This week it is the most uncomplicated piece of news in the briefing, which is either reassuring or telling. FedEx’s fuel cost commentary was the clean read-through for the supply chain that analysts had been waiting for all week. It was moderately reassuring. The bar for modestly reassuring news has moved considerably since February 28th.

Triple Witching today. Quarterly options and futures expiry. Volume will surge. Prices will move violently in both directions. The Dow and S&P 500 are both sitting on their 200-day moving averages going into it. Whatever happens today will be amplified by the mechanics of expiry. This is either a very interesting Friday or a very exhausting one. Quite possibly both.

Fun Fact:

Triple Witching occurs four times per year – on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December – when stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options all expire simultaneously. The term dates to the 1980s when the three simultaneous expiries were thought to make markets behave unpredictably, as if under the influence of three witches. Trading volume on Triple Witching days is typically 50-100% above average.

[Source: CME Group – Options and Futures Expiry Calendar – cmegroup.com | Historical Triple Witching volume data – widely documented in public financial literature]

The three witches are quarterly index futures, quarterly index options, and individual stock options. None of them are aware of the Netanyahu Hormuz comment. They are expiring regardless.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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