I Was Right for a Day. The Bull Needs 7720 to Make It 2

For a change my opinionated assessment on direction was right, at least for a day, which I’m sure was a David Bowie song¹.

¹ It was. The small print on the back of the record is clear: this opinion is guaranteed correct for 1 (one) trading day, and claims made after the close will be referred to the data.

Let’s see how the rest of the week goes lol.

Price is nudging off the range lows on the S&P and Naz but the sleepy uncles, Dow and Russ, do seem to be stalling for the moment. The disjointed moves are continuing between these 4, such is the way of things.

Scroll down for the VIX, the SPX triangle, crude’s gold star and what the Poppers pulled in.

Market Snapshot

VIX has worked its way down the menu this week: espresso, flat white, and now a decaf it insists it never ordered.

VIX’s espresso high at 20 has retreated a little, down to 18 or so, and now just has mild jitters. The fear gauge is dialing down, but we have seen this bounce around a lot over the last few days and the S&P would have to be a little more convincing on its move higher before the excitement wears off.

Uptober is being quietly renamed on the whiteboard. Current entries: Flatober, Shrugtober, and 4 days to think of a better one.

Crude is glugging along nicely still, and Bitcoin’s Uptober doesn’t seem to be coming to fruition. With 4 calendar days left there is a hill to climb to keep those moon shot bros happy.

• S&P futures 7,719.75, +0.07%. Nudging off the range lows.

• NazQuack futures 29,466.25, +0.24%. Same story, lows held for now.

• Uncle Dow futures 52,630, +0.19%. Stalling for the moment.

• Uncle Russ futures 2,797.5, +0.09%. Stalling alongside him.

• Gold 4,010.4, −0.51%. Still sliding down the wedge.

• VIX 18.20, −1.09%. Off the 20 espresso, mild jitters.

• Crude Oil 101.81, +0.55%. Glugging along.

• Bitcoin 79,602.77, −0.37%. Uptober has a hill to climb.

The S&P would have to be a little more convincing before the excitement wears off.

SPX – A push above 7720 flips the bull breakout switch.

Looking at the specifics again, and the swings. The SPX point and figure chart looks interestingly like a descending triangle, and a push above 7720 will flip the bull breakout switch, targeting the 7820 level.

My newer daily chart swing system for those Tag n Turns is already bullish as of yesterday’s open, from a deep dip entry, targeting the 7750 zone for the moment. The trade went on yesterday. When I talked about the new setup on Friday, Monday at the open is when it goes on, so this is a continuation of the same trade discussion.

As I have a credit spread on to express the trade we don’t need the directional move, but if we get one the payoff will be a little quick, and I’m already near my options profit target.

We don’t need the directional move.

Crude Oil – Bullish again off the range lows, and bullish off the high break.

Crude’s term report is in. Attends every session, hits every target set for it, could try harder at having a bad day.

Crude Oil continues to be a good little profit puller and needs a gold star and a pat on the rump. There is what could be called a small descending triangle type of pattern, which is a little too small to ping pong back and forth on this time frame. Bullish again off the range lows, and bullish off the high break, still looking for the 104.50 target.

Still looking for the 104.50 target.

Sentiment – A push above Thursday’s high might suggest a whole market participation rally.

On the sentiment chart the uptick continues, and a push above Thursday’s high might suggest a whole market participation rally.

The uptick continues.

Premium Poppers and Wall of Wins – Some premium on the 1st breakouts and a fast move higher.

Over on the Premium Poppers the team had an interesting day, pulling in some premium on the 1st breakouts and a fast move higher.

Don E.: “Closed RUT for 45%” and then “Closed SPX LP for 50%”

James D.: “Clocks changed – missed the market open and the PPs however closed a SPX TnT for a profit and also closed a pre-market bull SPX for a profit”

ehvpsd: “50% on RUT, 50% on SPX. About 20 minutes for each. Done for the day…”

Some premium on the 1st breakouts.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

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