I Like Making Money More Than I Like Being Right

Opinions. Tutting, with an eye roll.

Gap higher and trade lower. That was the opinion. But the setups said go bullish.

This is what separates the wheat from the chaff in trading. The novice will have that viewpoint too, we all have one. But it is then sticking with the setups, and what the data is actually saying, that makes the difference.

Sure, I expected some down moves. But the setups were bullish intraday, so bullish trades were placed. The nervous novice will stick to that opinion all day long, through the rally, for fear of missing the opinion setup, and FOMO, and of course not wanting to be wrong.

My opinions can be right or wrong. The data and following the setups is what makes me money.

I like making money more than I like being right.

Market Snapshot

ES futures have popped an overnight NATH. Woot. YM looks close. RTY has a hill to climb, and I don’t see Kate Bush anywhere. And of course NQ is breaking back into the prior range.

Interestingly the VIX is hardly moving, remaining slightly elevated, so there is still some fear there.

Gold is still teasing the breakout. Crude oil is reacting once again off the same levels. And Bitcoin continues the grind, so I’m popping on ETH/BTC again, as it’s moving and making.

• ES (SPX): 7,636.50 / +0.07% / overnight NATH, woot, full read below

• YM (Uncle Dow): 53,371 / -0.04% / looks close to its own

• NQ (NazQuack): 29,060.00 / +0.45% / breaking back into the prior range

• RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,992.90 / +0.02% / a hill to climb, full read below

• VIX: 15.83 / -0.25% / hardly moving, still slightly elevated

• GC (Gold): 4,110.30 / -0.02% / still teasing the breakout

• CL (Crude): 82.08 / +2.52% / reacting off the same levels, full read below

• BTC: 63,505.10 / +0.06% / the grind continues

• ETH/BTC: 0.029188 / -0.31% / moving and making, full read below

SPX: A Bear Tag n Turn, With A Warning Attached

SPX has fired off a bear Tag n Turn.

The software has issued a warning for this setup as a skip.

We may see price push lower, but it is expected to be short lived. If it is taken, keeping it on a short leash is wise.

And I’m waiting for my entry, after being flat into the weekend last week.

Short lived if it comes. Short leash if it’s taken.

Uncle Russ: Flipping And Flopping

RUT is a flipping and a flopping after the channel breakout.

Same as SPX, I’m waiting for my entry after being flat into the weekend.

Flipping and flopping. Waiting for the entry.

Crude Oil: The Same Zone, Bid Again

Crude oil is recovering and breaking up and out of the range it cut out after the drop lower on the no news.

This zone has been a reaction point several times, and seeing a bid here again makes sense.

Smaller targets also make sense, as the up moves are getting smaller. The PnF chart assisted with a suitable short term target zone.

Same zone, bid again. Smaller targets.

Crypto: ETH/BTC, Still Bearish

BTC remains in the grind. So looking at ETH/BTC again. Or still.

I remain bearish on this, down to the 0.029 area.

And if we can jump over the 0.0287 level, then a bigger bear move may be on offer.

Bearish to 0.029. Below 0.0287, more on offer.

Despite The Opinions

SPX and RUT Premium Poppers once again delivered, despite the opinions. The setups delivered nicely.

Both went on and both got transformed. SPX ended up a butterfly at 7555, 7560 and 7565, with $80 locked in and $580 at the apex. RUT the same shape at 2960, 2965 and 2970, with $90 locked in and $590 on the table.

Double dipping again. No bullseye trade this time, but two floors banked and two free shots at the tent.

And of course the student traders crushed it once again.

Don closed both SPX and RUT Bull BOs for 50%. Chris got his profit locked in on both as well, having converted his OTM Premium Popper entries. Richard took the SPX BO1 ATM at 7555 and locked in a $50c win, transformed to the butterfly.

James took the RUT pulse set for 50% and closed for a win, then waited on the SPX and RUT LPs but found the spread poor as it was rocketing up, so took the small win and was out for the day.

And Eddy is worth a mention for the trade he didn’t take. He couldn’t get enough premium on the SPX and RUT Poppers this time, so he left them and took an SPX ORB 60 LP instead, closing at 50%. He was right about the premium. It was exceptionally low credits on both SPX and RUT, even at the money.

Awesome work team.

The setups delivered. Despite the opinions.

Students are smashing the results, AGAIN!

Fun Fact

Since I mentioned RTY having a hill to climb and no Kate Bush in sight, here is what actually happened to that song.

Running Up That Hill came out in 1985 and reached number 3. Perfectly respectable, and that was that for thirty-seven years.

Then Netflix put it in a show in 2022, and the thing went to number 1. Which broke three Official Chart records in a single week: longest time for a single to reach number 1 at 37 years, longest gap between number 1 singles at 44 years since Wuthering Heights, and oldest female artist to top the chart at 63.

Nothing about the song changed. The song was always that good. What changed was the number of people paying attention to it.

Which is worth remembering next time you are sat waiting on a setup that nobody else seems interested in yet.

Source: Official Charts Company, June 2022.

Trade well,

T2 Markets

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