Hormuz Blockaded. Ceasefire Dead. The Financial Yoyo Continues.

The financial yoyo continues.

And perhaps I was a little too eager writing off the VIX rising trendline last week.

Twenty-one hours of negotiations in Islamabad. JD Vance led the US side. Iran’s Araghchi led theirs. Pakistan brokered the room. They walked out empty-handed. Iran rejected every US red line – no nuclear commitment, no uranium surrender, no Hormuz handover. Vance told reporters: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”

Trump responded at 3:14am ET. The US Navy will blockade all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command confirmed operations begin at 10am ET. WTI surged 8% to $104.24. Brent hit $102.29. The ceasefire lasted six days.

BTC was giving a few clues over the weekend as to what might happen at the open – a clear push lower off the range highs. Unsurprisingly.

With the straight line moves, the markets are overextended on the indexes. A pause or snap back is likely before the eventual push higher. The TnT on SPX and RUT are both still technically bullish. Last week’s decision not to hold over the weekend to avoid the noise was certainly a good one – as evidenced by the Tag n Turn wins on Friday. On both 30-minute charts the MACD-v extreme has been exited and the caution with last week’s bear tag continues – this time with the bear flip. Similarly to last week’s analysis and based on the new research, a pop lower similar to 2 April could well develop still.

Given that the BBs are pinching together again – waiting for a clear break in either direction is the sensible choice. Official system updates and software coming soon.

Earnings season arrives today. Goldman Q1 before the bell. JPMorgan tomorrow. Jamie Dimon’s oil shock credit commentary is the week’s most watched macro signal.

As for Friday’s trades – the Premium Poppers played out nicely with the new scoring system. Friday was a top tier day. The morning dragged its feet but the potential for a good setup remained, and then just prior to the cut-off point the software pinged: now. Two back-to-back setups, reasonably speedy result, little headache, 2x risk. The Tag n Turn also delivered on both SPX and RUT with the bear-to-bull flip sequence.

Let’s see what Monday brings. Other than a gap down at the open.

Market Briefing:

Monday 13 Apr – ceasefire dead / blockade begins.

• Islamabad talks collapsed:

  • 21 hours of negotiations / JD Vance US side / Araghchi Iran side / Pakistan brokered

  • Iran rejected all red lines – nuclear commitment, uranium surrender, Hormuz handover

  • Trump 3:14am ET: Navy blockade of all ships entering or leaving Hormuz / Central Command confirms 10am ET

  • WTI +8% to $104.24 / Brent $102.29 / WSJ: military strikes back on the table

• Futures: S&P -0.55% / Nasdaq -0.6% / Dow -256 points / seven winning sessions unwound overnight

• Earnings season:

  • Goldman Q1 before the bell ($16.49 EPS est. +16% YoY / $16.97B revenue / conference call 9:30am ET)

  • JPMorgan tomorrow / Citigroup + Wells Fargo Wednesday / Morgan Stanley + BofA Thursday

  • Dimon’s oil shock credit commentary: most watched macro signal of the week

• Monday read: gap down at open / TnT still technically bullish / BB pinching again / MACD-v extremes exited / pop lower possible like 2 April / waiting for clear directional break / not chasing

Market Snapshot

• ES: 6,819.00 / -44.75 (-0.65%) / gap down / seven winning sessions unwound

• YM: 47,929 / +165 (+0.33%) / Dow resilient / Goldman read ahead

• NQ: 25,117.50 / -215.50 (-0.85%) / tech hardest hit on renewed war risk

• RTY: 2,620.90 / -28.10 (-1.06%) / Uncle Russell giving back

• GC: 4,756.50 / -14.50 (-0.30%) / slight pullback / stagflation bid building

• CL: 103.89 / +8.26 (+8.64%) / blockade news / WTI back toward $104

• VIX: 21.10 / +1.88 (+9.78%) / trendline not dead after all / watching

• BTC: 70,820.02 / +0.09% / gave clues over weekend / push lower off range highs

Tag ‘n Turn

Both instruments technically still bullish on TnT. MACD-v extremes exited on both 30-minute charts. BB pinching again. Waiting for a clear break rather than chasing the gap down. Pop lower possible before the next bull leg.

The gap down this morning does not immediately flip the TnT signals – both SPX and RUT remain technically bullish above their respective levels. What the weekend’s news has done is reset the MACD-v from extreme territory and triggered the BB to pinch again. That pinch is the same configuration that preceded the prior moves in both directions. Based on the new research, a pop lower similar to 2 April is a live scenario – the bear flip caution from last week remains relevant. Waiting for a confirmed directional break rather than entering into gap noise. The straight-line move of the past seven sessions needs a reset before the next leg. This is the reset.

SPX Analysis

Technically bullish above 6,793. But MACD-v extreme exited. BB pinching. Pop lower like 2 April possible. Waiting for the break. Target pending.

The seven-session straight-line move higher has left SPX technically extended. The Bollinger Bands have pinched on the 30-minute chart – the same configuration as last week before the next directional move. The MACD-v has exited the bullish extreme it was sitting at on Friday, which means the directional energy of the recent move has been largely consumed. The TnT remains bullish above 6,793 but the gap down and the BB pinch together suggest a pause or flush lower is more likely as a first move than an immediate continuation. If the pop lower develops, the 6,719 level on the daily is the next meaningful reference. If the pinch resolves upward, the all-time high thesis is back in play.

Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 6,793 / PFZ 6,753 / Target Pending

Gamma Exposure

Still positive gamma. Flip point 6,629. Put and call walls both at 7,000. IV 15.77% still below historic vol 17.32%. IV Percentile 67%. Positive gamma environment intact despite blockade news.

Despite the overnight escalation, the GEX picture remains constructive. The flip point at 6,629 gives approximately 190 points of positive gamma cushion below current price – meaning the mechanical stabilization environment is still in place even with a gap down. IV at 15.77% against historic vol of 17.32% – the market is still pricing calm relative to recent actual movement. IV Percentile at 67% is down from the 76-96% range of two weeks ago. The put and call walls are both still at 7,000, defining the range. The positive gamma environment will slow and buffer the gap down mechanically. This is not the same environment as the early conflict sessions where negative gamma amplified every move.

Current Status: Positive gamma / flip point 6,629 / put wall 7,000 / call wall 7,000 / IV 15.77% below HV / IV Percentile 67% / 190-point gamma cushion

RUT Analysis

Uncle Russell also technically bullish above 2,636. Same BB pinch. Same MACD-v reset. Same read – waiting for the directional break. Pop lower remains possible.

RUT mirrors the SPX picture exactly. Technically bullish above 2,636, MACD-v extreme exited, BB pinching on the 30-minute chart. The gap down this morning brings price closer to the PFZ level at 2,617 but has not yet triggered a bearish flip. The same logic applies – waiting for a confirmed break rather than entering into the gap noise. If the pop lower develops to retest recent support, that is the next entry consideration. If the BB resolves upward, the bull is back in business.

Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 2,636 / PFZ 2,617 / Target Pending

Post Trade DeBriefing – 10 Apr 2026

SPX Premium Poppers: Top tier day. Two trades, both at 2r with the new scoring system. The morning dragged its feet but the setup potential was always there. Software pinged just before the cut-off: now. Two back-to-back entries, speedy result, no headache.

• Trade 1: 1st BO at 2r. 67.7% ROC from a $12 move.

• Trade 2: 3rd BO at 2r. 50.0% ROC from a $9 move.

2 trades / 2 wins / 0 losses.

SPX Tag n Turn: Bear-to-bull flip sequence. The bear entry lost — which was the caution call from the research — and the bull reversal confirmed the 95%+ success rate the new scoring system had identified.

• Trade 1: Bear, 1r. -47.7% ROC from a $35 move. Stop hit as expected given the warning.

• Trade 2: Bull reversal, 1r. 95.3% ROC from a $20 move.

1 win / 1 loss. Net positive on the week.

RUT Tag n Turn: Same pattern, same result.

• Trade 1: Bear, 1r. -5.7% ROC from a $12 move.

• Trade 2: Bull reversal, 1r. 95.1% ROC from a $3 move.

1 win / 1 loss. Net positive on the week.

Not holding over the weekend was the right call. All confirmed.

Rounding Off

The Yoyo Six days. That is how long the ceasefire lasted. Pakistan brokered it on Tuesday night. The Islamabad talks collapsed on Sunday after 21 hours. Iran rejected every US red line. Trump ordered the Navy blockade at 3:14am ET. WTI is back above $104. The financial yoyo is back in full swing. The VIX trendline that was written off last week has not been written off. Noted.

Goldman This Morning Goldman Q1 reports before the bell. Street expects $16.49 EPS — up 16% year-on-year on elevated trading desk volumes. Revenue estimate $16.97B. Conference call at 9:30am ET. The number itself matters less than the commentary on credit markets under oil shock conditions and the forward guidance on client positioning. JPMorgan follows tomorrow. Dimon’s commentary on the oil shock’s credit impact is the most watched macro signal of the week.

Earnings Season Context Q1 earnings were compiled largely before the ceasefire and certainly before the ceasefire’s collapse. They describe a war economy. The guidance season that follows will describe whatever the next two weeks produce. Thirteen S&P names hit all-time highs last week during the ceasefire. That context is worth keeping in mind as Q1 numbers arrive this week.

The BB Pinch – Again Same configuration as last week. Both 30-minute charts pinching. MACD-v extremes exited. The research says wait for the break. Last week the break resolved upward. This week the gap down is the first move. Pop lower before the next leg is the live scenario. Same process applies: wait for the confirmed signal, not the gap noise.

Current Status: Technically bullish / BB pinching / MACD-v reset / pop lower possible / Goldman 9:30am / blockade 10am ET / Dimon tomorrow / wait for the break

Expert Insights

Seven consecutive winning sessions. The longest winning run since October. Straight-line moves. Overextended. And then a 3:14am Trump post and a Navy blockade and the trend bends.

The new research confirms that a pop lower before the next bull leg is the most likely scenario when the MACD-v extreme is exited and the BB pinches in the context of an overextended straight-line move.

The trend is still the friend — the TnT remains technically bullish. But the bend is happening. Waiting for the pinch to resolve before re-engaging is exactly the right application of knowing when the trend is your friend and when it is temporarily not.

[Source: Ed Seykota — widely attributed, documented in Jack Schwager “Market Wizards,” John Wiley & Sons, 1989, public]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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