Honk Quack Boing – The Sound Of Markets Going Absolutely Nowhere While The World Burns Around Them | SPX Market Briefing | 20 Feb 2026

Those would be the sounds the stock markets make right now. If we were still in the pit trading days I suspect we would see the pit Olympics happening. Greco-Roman wrestling. Ticker tape gymnastics. And of course lots of bare-knuckle fights. Because nothing is moving these markets anywhere. Still!

My view hasn’t changed on the swings. Lots of head scratching.

My short-term scalps at the open are keeping me sane with some Premium Poppers giving me some love and Benjamins.

Friday. May once again take it off and enjoy a long weekend.

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Market Briefing:

Friday 20 Feb. Markets digest Thursday’s damage and brace for the ultimate data dump.

Thursday’s damage: Dow -268 to 49,395. S&P -0.28% to 6,862. Nasdaq -0.31% to 22,683. VIX spiked 6.2% to 20.84.

Today’s 8:30 AM reality check. Q4 GDP (consensus 3.0%, down from 4.4%) and December core PCE (expected 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY) land simultaneously. Shutdown delays forced this data dump. Hot inflation validates Fed hawks who discussed rate hikes. Cool numbers reopen the cut conversation.

Iran looms. CBS reports US military ready for strikes as early as Saturday. Two carrier strike groups positioned. Oil hit $66.58, six-month high.

Walmart beat but guided low. $0.74 EPS beat $0.73 consensus. Revenue $190.7B beat. But FY2026 guidance of $2.75-$2.85 missed the $2.96 Street estimate badly. CFO Rainey cited a “hiring recession” and “somewhat unstable” backdrop. The consumer bellwether just blinked.

Nvidia Wednesday decides tech. Three inflection points. Zero margin for error.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6,895.50 (NATHs 7,043) – flat premarket after Thursday’s selloff

• YM: 49,560 (NATHs 50,611) – digesting Walmart guidance miss

• NQ: 24,933 (NATHs 26,399) – 5th consecutive losing week

• RTY: 2,675.9 (NATHs 2,749.2) – TnT bearish, OJ Pattern grinding

• GC: 5,048.9 (NATHs 5,626.8) – geopolitical bid holding

• CL: 66.15 – six-month high on Iran strike fears

• VIX: 19.94 – spiked 6.2% Thursday, lower level 18.52

• BTC/USD: 67,887.55 (was 93,161) – Thiel fully exited, ETF investors 20% underwater

• NYSE Advance-Decline: -97 (slightly negative, middle of purple zone)

VIX – The Spike And The Question

VIX at 19.94 with the lower channel boundary at 18.52.

Thursday delivered a 6.2% VIX spike to 20.84. Now it’s pulled back to 19.94. Still above the lower boundary but below the recent highs.

The steepening gradient from earlier this week still holds. Higher lows still building. But the 8:30 AM data dump could change the picture in either direction.

Hot PCE = VIX pushes higher, validates the hawk case. Cool PCE = VIX drops, cut conversation reopens.

Friday data plus weekend Iran risk means VIX has two reasons to stay elevated. Weekend premium alone provides a bid for volatility.

SPX Tag ‘n Turn – Cat’s Whisker Miss Now Rolling Over

Tag ‘n Turn Status:

The TnT remains bullish above 6,803.43. Target has adjusted down again from 6,952.88 to 6,911.59 as the range continues recalibrating.

The daily chart at 6,861.88. ATR 14 at 65.76 (down from 82.26). Price sitting under the rising channel lows on the daily. The breakout retest continues.

The “Bearish @ Upper Range” zone near 7,005/7,002.28 and the 6,978.68 line are still the upper boundary. The bull swing just missed that tag by a cat’s whisker and now we’re rolling over.

MACD-v still in the non-trending zone. Nothing has changed there this week. A push past the 50 levels and beyond 100 is what we need for momentum.

ADD at -97. Slightly negative. Middle of the purple neutral zone. Not giving us any turning point signal in either direction.

My view hasn’t changed on the swings. Lots of head scratching. The short-term scalps at the open are what’s working. Premium Poppers giving love and Benjamins while the swings go nowhere.

SPX Gamma Exposure – The Convergence Reversed

GEX Data (19 Feb):

Monday: 132-point gap. Tuesday: 86 points. Wednesday: 8.53 points. Thursday: 37.04 points. The gap widened back out.

The gamma flip moved UP from 6,889.84 to 6,898.93 while price moved DOWN from 6,881 to 6,861. Both lines moved in the wrong direction.

We were 8 points from flipping into positive gamma territory. It didn’t happen. Now we’re back to 37 points away with the gamma flip drifting higher and price drifting lower.

Still in negative gamma. Dealers still amplifying moves. Put wall and call wall still at 7,000. The crossover that would have stabilised the rally didn’t materialize.

IV Rank at 18.85% (up slightly from 16.99%). IV Percentile 76%. VIX spiked 6.2% on Thursday. Options premium is juicing again.

RUT – Grinding Toward Target

Tag ‘n Turn Status:

RUT remains bearish below 2,648.39. Target adjusted slightly from 2,603.99 to 2,609.67.

The daily chart shows a significant red candle. Price dropped from 2,665 area to 2,577. That’s an aggressive move lower. The 30-minute shows price at 2,608 – right at the target zone.

The OJ Pattern is grinding toward its destination. The slow-motion bull-bear car chase may be arriving at its endpoint.

“Right Shoulder” still labelled on the 30-minute chart. “Bearish @ Upper Range” confirmed. The bearish TnT called the direction. The target is being tested.

ADD at -97 on the RUT chart too. Neutral.

Walmart: The Bellwether Blinks

Walmart beat on Q4 but guided low for FY2026.

Beat: $0.74 EPS vs $0.73 consensus. Revenue $190.7B vs $190.49B. E-commerce +24%. Walmart Connect advertising surging. $30B share buyback announced. 53rd consecutive dividend increase.

Miss: FY2026 guidance of $2.75-$2.85 EPS vs $2.96 consensus. That’s a 4-7% miss on the outlook.

CFO Rainey used the phrase “hiring recession.” He cited student loan delinquencies rising. Trade uncertainty. An “unstable” backdrop. CEO Furner confirmed high-income household gains continuing but framed the outlook as “prudent.”

Amazon quietly passed Walmart as largest by annual revenue. $717B vs $715.9B. The first time ever.

The 8:30 AM Data Dump

Q4 GDP consensus: 3.0% (down from Q3’s 4.4%). Core PCE expected: 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY.

Government shutdown delays forced both releases to land simultaneously. This is the “ultimate reality check.”

The scenarios are binary:

Hot inflation: Validates “several” Fed officials talking rate hikes. Bond yields push higher. Dollar strengthens. Rate-sensitive assets under pressure. VIX spikes.

Cool inflation: Reopens the rate cut conversation. Gives the doves ammunition. Risk assets bid. VIX drops.

After that: Nvidia earnings Wednesday. The last of the mega-cap tech reports. If the SaaSpocalypse narrative is accelerating or decelerating, Nvidia will tell us.

Iran – The Weekend Risk

CBS reports US military ready for strikes as early as Saturday. Two carrier strike groups positioned.

Oil at $66.58, six-month high. Airlines already bleeding – American Airlines -5.3% on fuel fears.

Traders face a choice: hold risk over a weekend with potential military strikes? The answer will show up in Friday’s positioning.

Weekend risk premium in options. Energy bids. Gold holds near $5K. The market may go nowhere today but the weekend brings its own catalyst.

Premium Poppers – Love And Benjamins

The short-term scalps at the open are keeping me sane.

Swings going nowhere. Lots of head scratching. But the Poppers don’t need the market to go somewhere. They need premium. And VIX at 19.94 after a 6.2% spike gives them premium.

A fistful of dollars from a bag full of Poppers. Every morning. Regardless of the honk-quack-boing.

Friday. May take it off. Enjoy a long weekend. The system will be there Monday.

PopPop.

1 – The gamma flip convergence failed at the threshold. Beep. Monday: 132-point gap. Tuesday: 86. Wednesday: 8.53. Thursday: back to 37. Both lines reversed simultaneously – gamma flip moved UP while price moved DOWN. Eight points from crossing into positive gamma and the market couldn’t push through. Dealers remain in volatility-amplifying mode heading into today’s data dump and a weekend with potential Iran strikes. Beep-Beep.

[Source: CBOE GEX data, 18-19 Feb 2026]

2 – Blue Owl’s loan sale connects the SaaSpocalypse to the $3 trillion private credit market. Beep. Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals after selling $1.4B in loans at 99.7 cents. Software and services were the largest sector at 13% of those loans. CNBC reports at least 20% of all private credit loans have gone to software companies. Former PIMCO CEO El-Erian asked if this is “a canary in the coal mine, similar to August 2007.” Blue Owl’s stock has fallen nearly 50% in the past year. Beep-Beep. AI disruption just jumped from public equities to private credit.

[Source: CNBC, 19-20 Feb 2026; Bloomberg, 19 Feb 2026]

3 – Walmart’s CFO used the phrase “hiring recession.” Beep. CFO Rainey told Bloomberg the cautious guidance reflected “the hiring recession, student delinquencies up, trade uncertainty.” Walmart raised guidance each of the past three years. This year they guided 4-7% below consensus. When the world’s largest retailer starts combining “hiring” with “recession,” the bottom of the K-shaped consumer is under more pressure than the top acknowledges. Beep-Beep.

[Source: Bloomberg, 19 Feb 2026; Walmart Q4 FY2026 earnings call]

Fun Fact:

The last time the US Bureau of Economic Analysis was forced to release GDP and PCE data simultaneously due to delayed reporting was after the 2018-2019 government shutdown (the longest in US history at 35 days).

The current 43-day shutdown in late 2025 created an even larger data backlog. When delayed economic data drops in bulk, markets tend to react more violently than to spaced releases because traders must reprice multiple variables at once rather than digesting them sequentially.

The phrase “data dump” entered financial lexicon specifically to describe these post-shutdown compressed releases, and today’s 8:30 AM represents one of the largest simultaneous data events since the pandemic-era reporting disruptions of 2020.

[Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule, historical government shutdown data]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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