Groundhog Day. FOMC Day. 7 For 7. Don’t Jinx It. | SPX Market Briefing | 10 Dec 2025

Groundhog day again. We are still at the upper edge of the larger range on the indexes. Gold is grinding but not yet lost its shine. Oil slid back into its range. VIX is starting to nudge higher along with the index.

What do we do?

Follow the process and bank some profits.

Oh, and it’s FOMC day. Powell and friends make their presence felt at 2pm. Stay nimble.

SPX Doesn’t Need You To Be Right. Just Consistent.

Pulse bar tells you when. Credit spreads handle the rest.

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Market Briefing:

FOMC day. The Fed announces their rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by economic projections, the statement, and Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm. Markets tend to get twitchy around these events, so stay aware.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: Bull TnT active – Bullish Above 6847.97, PFZ 6827.19, Target 6883.96

• RUT: Bear TnT active – Bearish Below 2536.98, PFZ 2541.77, Target 2511.68

• VIX: 17.37 – nudging higher

• GC: 4,219 – grinding but hasn’t lost its shine

• CL: 58.57 – slid back into range

  

SPX – Software Settings Matter

SPX didn’t get the bear setup in a suitable time window. This is one of the variable settings you can choose in the software settings.

I’ve currently got mine set quite strict. Others have it set more relaxed – which will explain why some are seeing no setup earlier in the week and some are seeing a bear flip to bull setup.

Right now – we are bullish with the flip point below 6830.

The software handles the assessment. No guessing required.

RUT – The Interesting One

RUT pushed to a NATH by a few pennies, tagged the upper Bollinger Band, and turned bearish.

Interestingly, this all happened at the range high which I’ve manually marked off. The target is the range lows.

Key Level: A drop below 2515 and I will consider that a breakout and use the breakout targets manually – just like we did last week on the bullish breakout.

As a reminder – the update hopefully coming in the new year will have this part of the process done for you. Until then, we have 2 minutes of work to do when/if there is a BBW pinch point.

The Streak

And lastly – let’s see if we get some more Poppers at the opening bell.

I’m 7 for 7 this month so far.

Let’s hope I’ve not just jinxed it. Fingers crossed.

Calendar Today – FOMC Day

• 8:30am: Employment Cost Index

• 2:00pm: Federal Funds Rate Decision (Forecast 3.75% vs Previous 4.00%)

• 2:00pm: FOMC Economic Projections

• 2:00pm: FOMC Statement

• 2:30pm: FOMC Press Conference (Powell speaks)

Big day. Stay nimble around the 2pm announcement.

Fun Fact:

The Streak Reality: What 7 For 7 Actually Means

Research shows even with a 70% win rate strategy, there’s a 93% chance of hitting 3 consecutive losses at some point – streaks are statistical certainties, not magic!

Here’s the uncomfortable truth about winning streaks that nobody wants to hear: they don’t mean you’re suddenly a genius, and they don’t mean they’ll continue forever!

Research from Edgeful shows that even with a 70% win rate – which is exceptional – you’ve got a 93% chance of experiencing 3 consecutive losses and a 55% chance of hitting 4 in a row at some point.

The “law of large numbers” means winning and losing streaks are completely normal over any meaningful sample size. The biggest mistake traders make? Changing their system after a few losses (thinking it’s “broken”) or getting cocky after a few wins (thinking they’ve found the Holy Grail).

The 7 for 7 streak is lovely, but it’s just statistics doing what statistics do. The process stays the same whether you’re 7 for 7 or 0 for 7 – that’s the entire point of systematic trading. Now fingers crossed I haven’t jinxed it by talking about it!

[Source: Tradeciety – “Why Your Trading Strategy Is Still Good After 10 Losing Trades”]

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Trade well,
T2 Markets

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