Groundhog Day. BB Width Confirmed. 2 Wins Yesterday. TnT On Pause. | SPX Market Briefing | 3 Dec 2025

Right now I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day – waking up to the same song at the same time in the same town.

Yup you guessed it – saying the same thing about the markets because nothing has changed.

We are still at the upper edge of the previously mentioned range. I’m still leaning towards the bear side of things in the short term.

SPX and RUT have now confirmed their Bollinger Band width pinch point ranges – sooo the TnT swings are now on pause while we wait for a breakout.

No surprise there as I was already waiting for a new entry signal to develop.

Yesterday there were some interesting opportunities using the Premium Popper setups with a little common sense – since price on both SPX and RUT were at or near the upper edge of those same ranges, using the ORB20 filtered with the bear bias we already had starting the week allowed for a way to trade the bear breakout which was a part of the larger range reversal and of course – one of my 6 money making patterns.

Two wins for the day: RUT 54.13% ROC and SPX 58.3% ROC.

Entries and exits look a mess – but this is the great thing about income styled trading – we do not need a directional move to get paid.

In the case of SPX, should the same trade have been placed on futures – it would have been whipped around and stopped out. With Income options – profit achieved despite the messy chart.

We have a little piece of news at 10am EST – after that it should be plain sailing again for the day.

Given the official range – it’s likely the market is holding its break for Friday’s NFP figures.

We will see what we see when we see it.

Keep scrolling for the Premium Popper wins breakdown…
Groundhog Day Markets. BB Width Confirmed. 2 Wins Yesterday. Waiting For Friday.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Wednesday December continues the Groundhog Day theme (Bill Murray waking up same song same time same town – nothing has changed), still at upper edge of range leaning bear short term,

SPX and RUT have now confirmed BB width pinch point ranges (TnT swings on pause awaiting breakout – no surprise already waiting for new entry),

yesterday Premium Poppers used common sense at range highs with ORB20 bear filter (bear BO part of range reversal – 6 money making patterns),

two wins RUT 54.13% ROC SPX 58.3% ROC (entries and exits messy but income trading doesn’t need direction – futures would have been stopped out), 10am EST news then plain sailing, market likely holding break for Friday NFP.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: BB width pinch confirmed, TnT on pause, range highs

• RUT: BB width pinch confirmed, TnT on pause, range highs

• ES: 6,851 – consolidating

• CL: 59.36 – upper range

• GC: 4,231 – consolidating

• VIX: 16.54 – subdued

• BTC: 93,161 – recovering

Groundhog Day – Nothing Has Changed

Right now I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day – waking up to the same song at the same time in the same town.

Saying the same thing about the markets because nothing has changed. Still at the upper edge of the previously mentioned range. Still leaning towards the bear side of things in the short term.

Current Status: Same view, same range, same bias

BB Width Pinch Confirmed

SPX and RUT have now confirmed their Bollinger Band width pinch point ranges – sooo the TnT swings are now on pause while we wait for a breakout.

No surprise there as I was already waiting for a new entry signal to develop. The official range condition is now confirmed.

Current Status: BB width pinch confirmed, TnT on pause, awaiting breakout

Yesterday’s Premium Popper Wins

Yesterday there were some interesting opportunities using the Premium Popper setups with a little common sense.

Price on both SPX and RUT were at or near the upper edge of those same ranges. Using the ORB20 filtered with the bear bias we already had starting the week allowed for a way to trade the bear breakout – part of the larger range reversal and one of my 6 money making patterns.

Two wins: RUT 54.13% ROC ($10) and SPX 58.3% ROC ($12).

Current Status: Premium Poppers banked, bear filter working

Income Trading vs Futures

Entries and exits look a mess – but this is the great thing about income styled trading – we do not need a directional move to get paid.

In the case of SPX, should the same trade have been placed on futures – it would have been whipped around and stopped out. With Income options – profit achieved despite the messy chart.

Current Status: Income options profit, futures would have been stopped

Waiting For Friday NFP

Given the official range – it’s likely the market is holding its break for Friday’s NFP figures.

We have a little piece of news at 10am EST – after that it should be plain sailing again for the day. We will see what we see when we see it.

Current Status: 10am news, then waiting for Friday NFP

Expert Insights

The Observation: When BB width confirms a pinch point range, the market is telling you something. It’s consolidating. It’s waiting. And trying to force trades in consolidation usually ends badly.

The Fix: Pause the swing strategies. Use range-based setups like Premium Poppers at the edges. Filter with the bias you already have. Let the market come to you instead of chasing it into the chop.

Fun Fact:

Speaking of Groundhog Day – researchers at Northumbria University mapped a century of US stock market returns against Punxsutawney Phil’s annual predictions. When the groundhog predicts an early spring (no shadow), the market returns are 2.78% higher than when he predicts a long winter. The study calls this “irrational optimism of superstitious investors.”

[Source: Finance Research Letters / Harvard Business Review – “The Groundhog Day Stock Market Anomaly”]

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