Government Shuts Down, SPX Shrugs Higher | SPX Market Briefing | 3 Oct 2025

Well, the government’s officially shut down. Again.

Fifth time in 20 years.

This one’s brought to you by “Failure to pass a funding bill over divided priorities and spending” – which sounds like every Monday morning meeting I’ve ever attended.

Here’s the delicious bit: We now have an accidental free market condition. No government oar-sticking. Just markets doing their thing whilst 800,000+ federal workers wonder about paychecks.

SPX’s response? Acting like a Frenchman’s disdain for instant coffee – completely unbothered and mildly amused.

Bear TnT setup from yesterday threatens to flip bullish before the weekend closes. Crude’s testing breakdown levels. And I’m one sleep away from joining the government for some proper downtime.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Friday brings the end of another week where literally everything should be falling apart, but instead it just… carries on.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: Bear TnT threatening bullish flip before weekend

• RUT: Bearish, also threatening bullish flip before weekend

• CL: Testing bear breakdown, toying with commitment

• Government: Shutdown active, markets completely indifferent

The AI Jobs Heist

TrendSpider chart shows something properly fascinating:

• ChatGPT launched November 2022.

• Job openings have been cratering ever since.

• SPX response? Straight fucking up.

Less jobs = More stonks.

AI automation destroying employment opportunities faster than you can say “prompt engineering” whilst market treats it like the best news since leveraged ETFs discovered margin.

Why? Companies slashing labor costs, boosting margins, delivering shareholders juicy returns whilst actual humans wonder why nobody’s hiring despite “record” conditions.

SPX Commitment Issues

Went into Thursday with bear TnT. Now threatening to flip bullish before weekend close. It’s giving “I’m totally over you” at 11pm then “you up?” texts at 2am energy.

System’s watching. Waiting. Ready to respond when this market decides what it wants to be.

Current Status: Bear TnT (probably) (maybe) (check back Monday)

Crude Oil Breakdown Watch

CL futures continue elegant descent toward bear breakdown territory. Currently “toying” with the level like someone who says they’re “thinking about” leaving the party but has been hovering by the door for an hour.

Nice solid breakdown to close the week would be lovely. But this is 2025 – everything that should happen takes three times longer than expected.

Current Status: Testing bear breakdown, send thoughts and prayers

Vacation Mode Activated

Sophisticated trading strategy for today: Finish packing speedos. Load SF1,000 sunscreen. Join government for downtime. Sausages on sticks. Exotic cocktails with ridiculous names.

Markets will be here when I get back. Setups will still trigger. Systems will still work.

That’s the beauty of systematic trading – doesn’t require constant attention. Just trust the process and occasionally pack your speedos.

Fun Fact:

Black Monday 1987: The Day Computers Learned to Panic

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones dropped 22.6% in a single day—the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history—thanks to computerized trading systems that created a digital domino effect!

Black Monday was the day Wall Street’s shiny new computer trading systems collectively had a nervous breakdown and decided to recreate the financial apocalypse in fast-forward!

The Dow plummeted 508 points (22.6%) in one day, making the Great Depression’s worst single-day drop of 12% look like a gentle hiccup by comparison.

Computer trading was still the new kid on the block in the 1980s, and these early algorithms were programmed with about as much emotional intelligence as a caffeinated toddler with a calculator.

When stocks started dropping, the computers automatically executed stop-loss orders, which triggered more selling, which triggered more stop-losses, creating a digital death spiral that made human panic look calm and rational!

It was like watching a room full of robots play hot potato with live grenades—every time one dropped the ball, all the others started throwing theirs too.

The best part? Nobody could stop it because the humans who programmed these systems were too busy running around screaming to hit the off switch.

Portfolio insurance, designed to protect against market declines, instead accelerated the crash by forcing massive selling as prices fell.

By the end of the day, $500 billion in market value had vanished into the digital ether, proving that artificial intelligence could panic just as spectacularly as human intelligence—only faster!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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