Friday the 13th. Brent $100. Bears Back in Charge. The Omens Were Never Subtle. | SPX Market Briefing | 13 Mar 2026

Friday the 13th. Brent crude above $100. The Dow down 739 points yesterday. A new Iranian supreme leader whose first public statement was that Hormuz stays closed as a “tool of pressure.”

The market didn’t need a black cat walking across its path. It had geopolitics, stagflation risk, and a VIX that refused to come down all week to do the job instead.

The mid-week bounce? Dead cat. Called it yesterday. The bears had the ball and they kept it. Both SPX and RUT remain below their respective breakdown levels with the MACD in full bear trend mode on both. There is no ambiguity in the read this morning – nice and simple, fewer interpretations, the chart is doing the talking.

One small aside before the analysis – I’ve flipped the Bollinger Bands from 50 to 30 periods. Slightly faster turn signal. That means 3-5 DTE should be fine rather than the 7-DTE I’ve been running.

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Market Briefing:

Friday 13 Mar. Thursday closed at 2026 lows: Dow -739pts to 46,677, S&P -1.52% to 6,672, Nasdaq -1.78% to 22,311. Brent settled above $100 Thursday – first close above $100 since August 2022 – WTI at $95.73, up 38% since Operation Epic Fury launched February 28.

Iran’s new supreme leader Khamenei issued his first public statement: Hormuz stays closed, a “tool of pressure.” 16 tankers struck, traffic near zero, 20% of global oil stranded. PCE lands at 08:30 ET today – headline 2.7% expected, core near 3%, Fed’s preferred gauge ahead of March 17-18 FOMC.

Goldman revised to September for the first cut. Futures flat pre-market after yesterday’s rout. Dead cat bounce confirmed – bears have the ball going into Friday the 13th.

Market Snapshot

• ES: 6,675 / NATHs 7,043 / flat pre-market after Thursday’s 2026 lows

• YM: 46,721 / NATHs 50,611 / Dow -739 Thursday, leading the bleed

• NQ: 24,526 / NATHs 26,399 / -1.78% Thursday, tech still under pressure

• RTY: 2,490.2 / NATHs 2,749.2

• GC: 5,090.0 / NATHs 5,626.8 / slipped roughly 3% since Epic Fury began – decoupling from safe-haven role

• CL: 95.80 / Brent settled $100.46 Thursday – first above $100 since August 2022

• VIX: 27.06 / held range highs all week – the tell that the bounce wasn’t going to stick

• BTC/USD: ~72,049 / up 7% since Feb 28, outperforming SPX, gold and silver

Tag ‘n Turn

Both instruments flipped to bearish this week and neither has given any reason to reconsider that read.

SPX is Bearish Below 6,796.09 with a PFZ at 6,845.08 and a target of 6,726.76. RUT is Bearish Below 2,553.55 with a PFZ at 2,591.33 and a target of 2,509.57. Both MACD indicators are in full bear trend mode. The VIX holding its range highs all week was the confirmation that the mid-week indecision was exactly that – indecision, not reversal.

Current Status: SPX Bearish Below 6,796.09 / PFZ 6,845.08 / Target 6,726.76 / ATR 81.92 — RUT Bearish Below 2,553.55 / PFZ 2,591.33 / Target 2,509.57

*Note the above comment – 50 to 30 periods on the bollinger bands

SPX Analysis

Bearish. Nice and simple. Fewer interpretations. The MACD is doing the talking.

The chart confirmed the dead cat read from yesterday. Price stayed below the breakdown levels, the mid-week recovery failed to reclaim anything meaningful, and Thursday’s close at 2026 lows sealed it. The Bearish TnT signal is in place and the MACD is in full bear trend mode – no mixed signals here.

The one fly in the ointment is the ADD sitting in its bear extreme zone. Should the bear trend continue today – and there’s no obvious reason it won’t given the week’s trajectory – a gap higher on ADD would give it some wiggle room to push lower. That’s a pattern seen multiple times recently and worth watching at the open.

Current Status: Bearish Below 6,796.09 / PFZ 6,845.08 / Target 6,726.76 / MACD full bear trend / ADD at bear extreme – watch for gap higher open

RUT Analysis

Uncle Russell is also bearish. Also nice and simple. Also MACD in bear trend mode.

RUT confirmed the same read as SPX – below the breakdown level, Bearish TnT signal in place, no ambiguity in the chart. The target at 2,509.57 remains the downside objective if the bear trend continues through today’s session. The mid-week Bullish TnT that briefly appeared did its job as a distraction and has now been overtaken by the renewed bear move.

Current Status: Bearish Below 2,553.55 / PFZ 2,591.33 / Target 2,509.57 / MACD bear trend confirmed

After Action Report – 12 Mar 2026 | Premium Popper | ORB20

Yesterday’s trades are fully documented in the weekly debrief alongside the rest of the week.

SPX ran 4 trades (64.3% / 65.5% / -93.5% / 90.0% ROC). RUT ran 2 trades (64.3% / 65.5% ROC). The penny that stopped T3 and the lazy day trade that paid 90% right behind it – all in there with the full week context.

Current Status: 6 trades / 5 wins / 1 loss / full week debrief live

Rounding Off

Brent above $100 is not a headline. It is a regime change.

The last close above $100 was August 2022. WTI is up 38% since Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28. Iran’s new supreme leader Khamenei issued his first public statement Thursday: Hormuz stays closed. A “tool of pressure” in his words. 16 tankers struck. Traffic near zero. 20% of global oil effectively stranded. The IEA’s 400 million barrel release last Wednesday now looks even more clearly insufficient – you cannot ship reserves through a closed strait.

PCE lands at 08:30 ET this morning. Headline expected at 2.7% year-on-year. Core running near 3%. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and it arrives with Brent above $100 in the background. Goldman revised to September for the first cut. Moody’s chief economist warns the Fed stays idle for “weeks if not months” awaiting war clarity. FOMC meets March 17-18 – near-zero probability of movement. The stagflation read gets louder every session.

Morgan Stanley fell 3.6% Thursday – the firm capped private credit withdrawals, honoring only 5% of a 10.9% Q1 redemption request. That is a liquidity signal worth noting quietly alongside the oil story.

Current Status: Brent $100.46 / PCE 08:30 ET today / FOMC March 17-18 hold / Goldman September cut / Morgan Stanley redemption cap noted

Expert Insights

The bear trend on both SPX and RUT has been the read all week. The mid-week bounce was the bend that tested it. It didn’t stick. The VIX holding its range highs was the signal that the bend wasn’t becoming a new trend – it was noise inside a continuing move.

The practical application is straightforward. The MACD on both instruments is in full bear trend mode. The TnT signals are bearish on both. The indexes are below their breakdown levels. Seykota’s point is not about predicting the end of the trend – it is about respecting the trend until the chart says otherwise. Right now the chart isn’t saying otherwise.

[Source: Ed Seykota quote – widely attributed, public domain | Goldman Sachs rate cut revision – public, March 2026 | CME FedWatch – cmegroup.com]

Beep-Beep.

1 – Brent settling above $100 on Thursday is a psychological and structural threshold that changes how institutional models react. The last close above $100 was August 2022 – a date associated with peak post-pandemic inflation. [Source: EIA crude oil price history, public]. Many systematic funds have $100 Brent as a trigger level for risk reduction or sector rotation. This is not superstition – it is rules-based portfolio management reacting to a price level. The move above $100 on a Thursday close means Friday morning will see those rules execute. Flat futures pre-market does not mean calm – it may mean the institutional selling is still loading.

2 – Iran’s new supreme leader’s first public statement being about Hormuz staying closed removes the diplomatic off-ramp market had partially priced in. A leadership transition creates uncertainty, and markets had assigned some probability to a new leader moderating the position. [Source: Reuters geopolitical coverage, 12-13 March 2026, public]. That probability is now zero. The “tool of pressure” framing specifically signals Hormuz closure is a deliberate negotiating instrument, not an accident of conflict. This extends the timeline on oil supply disruption materially beyond what was priced during the mid-week bounce.

3 – Bitcoin outperforming SPX, gold, and silver since February 28 during a period of Extreme Fear and negative funding rates is a specific macro signal. Negative funding rates mean short sellers are paying longs to hold positions – typically a sign of maximum bearish positioning that historically precedes short covering rallies. [Source: CoinGlass funding rate data, public, 13 March 2026]. Bitcoin outperforming traditional safe havens during an oil shock and equity rout suggests institutional rotation into uncorrelated assets rather than pure risk-off. The 6MMPs #5 setup on the hourly chart aligns with this read.

In Other News…

Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2022. The market’s response on Friday morning: futures flat. Which is either a display of remarkable composure or evidence that at some point the human brain simply runs out of the capacity to be additionally alarmed. We may have reached that point somewhere around day nine of Operation Epic Fury.

Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei – in office since March 9 – used his first public statement to confirm that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a “tool of pressure.” Sixteen tankers struck. Traffic near zero. Twenty percent of global oil stranded. His predecessor spent decades in the job. The new one got straight to the point. You have to respect the efficiency.

Morgan Stanley fell 3.6% Thursday after the firm honored only 5% of a 10.9% Q1 private credit redemption request. In normal times this would be the headline. This week it is footnote six. The fact that a major bank quietly capping client withdrawals is currently competing for attention with $100 Brent and a closed international shipping strait says something about the news cycle. It is not saying something reassuring.

Gold slipped roughly 3% since Epic Fury began. The traditional safe haven is decoupling from its safe-haven role at the exact moment you would want it not to. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up 7% over the same period and quietly outperforming everything. Extreme Fear. Funding rates negative. Institutions apparently decided that “uncorrelated digital asset” is a better hedge than “shiny metal” during an oil war. The gold bugs have had a difficult week.

Fun Fact:

The fear of Friday the 13th has an official name: friggatriskaidekaphobia – derived from Frigg, the Norse goddess after whom Friday is named, and triskaidekaphobia, the fear of the number 13. It is estimated that between 17 and 21 million people in the United States are affected by it, with some refusing to travel, conduct business, or make significant decisions on the date.

[Source: Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute, Asheville NC – widely cited in academic literature on superstition and risk behavior]

Brent crude settled above $100 on Thursday the 12th. The market had the courtesy to wait until the day before. Thoughtful.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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