Friday Pattern Repeats. Excitement Fades. Theta Collection Mode. | SPX Market Briefing | 17 Nov 2025

Last Friday saw a similar reaction to the end of the previous week.

Big sell off. Bigger turnaround move.

What I’m seeing as different this time: The lack of a huge bull reaction.

Friday’s recovery was significant but not explosive. The follow-through isn’t materializing with the same force.

There is very little activity in the premarket futures. I suspect the excitement is over at least for the moment.

My usual big wick assessment can potentially complete – in that we see a narrow ranging day today.

Big wicks on charts often lead to consolidation. The extremes have been tested. Now markets digest and range.

On my usual entry timeframes: SPX and RUT are bullish. So it’s again just a case of sitting and waiting for the theta decay.

I will again continue to keep an eye on the Anchored VWAP from the swing low as that served me very well last week.

AVWAP from lows = management level. Tighter than waiting for PFZ trips. Last week proved value. Continuing this week.

Keep scrolling for the consolidation analysis…

Friday Turnaround Repeats. Excitement Fades. Narrow Range Expected. Theta Collection Active.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Friday pattern repeating (big sell off, bigger turnaround move) with difference being lack of huge bull reaction and very little premarket futures activity suggesting excitement over for moment, big wick assessment potentially completing (narrow ranging day expected today as extremes tested markets digest), SPX and RUT both bullish on usual entry timeframes (sitting waiting theta decay mode), continuing watch Anchored VWAP from swing low (served well last week for management without PFZ wait).

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6766.00, consolidating after Friday turnaround

• RTY: 2392.6, bullish but quiet

• YM: 47,196, stable post-recovery

• NQ: 25,182.75, lacking follow-through

• CL: $60.06, back at $60 level

• GC: $4100.0, pulling back from highs

• VIX: 20.54, declining from spike

• 2yr Bonds: 3.598%

Friday Pattern Repeats – Less Dramatic

Last Friday saw a similar reaction to the end of the previous week. Big sell off. Bigger turnaround move.

Previous Friday: Massive sell off, massive recovery.
This Friday: Big sell off, big recovery.

Pattern repeating. Markets testing lows. Then reversing hard.

What I’m seeing as different this time: The lack of a huge bull reaction.

Friday’s turnaround was significant but not explosive. The buying conviction lower. Recovery happened but without same force as previous week.

ES: 6766.00. Recovering but not rocketing. Consolidating instead.

Current Status: Friday pattern repeated, bull reaction less dramatic

Excitement Faded – Premarket Quiet

There is very little activity in the premarket futures.

ES, RTY, YM, NQ: All showing minimal movement premarket. Low volume. Quiet action.

I suspect the excitement is over at least for the moment.

Last week’s volatility spike = excitement. VIX hit 21.21. Now: 20.54 declining. Markets calming. Drama fading.

When premarket is this quiet after big moves, it suggests consolidation incoming rather than continuation.

Current Status: Premarket quiet, excitement faded, consolidation likely

Big Wick Assessment – Narrow Range Expected

My usual big wick assessment can potentially complete – in that we see a narrow ranging day today.

Big wick = large candle with long upper and lower shadows. Shows extremes tested. Both bulls and bears pushed hard. Neither won decisively.

When big wicks form after volatile moves, they often lead to consolidation. Markets pause. Digest. Range forms whilst participants decide direction.

Today: Expecting narrow range. Big wicks completing their pattern. Extremes tested Friday. Now time to consolidate.

Current Status: Big wick assessment suggests narrow range today

SPX/RUT Bullish – Theta Collection Mode

On my usual entry timeframes: SPX and RUT are bullish.

SPX: 6846.75. Bullish on 30min setup.
RUT: 2418.82. Bullish on 30min setup.

Both showing bull structure on entry timeframes.

So it’s again just a case of sitting and waiting for the theta decay.

Bull setups intact. No action required. Just: Sit. Wait. Collect theta.

Narrow range expectation = perfect for theta collection. Time passes. Premiums decay. No dramatic moves needed.

Current Status: SPX/RUT bullish, sitting waiting theta decay

AVWAP Management Continues

I will again continue to keep an eye on the Anchored VWAP from the swing low as that served me very well last week.

AVWAP from swing low = dynamic management level. Tighter than waiting for PFZ mechanical trips.

Last week: AVWAP management worked excellently. Provided earlier signals. Better position control.

This week: Continuing same approach. AVWAP from lows watching. Managing without needing to wait for full PFZ trips.

Systematic approach evolving. Not abandoning mechanical rules. Adding tighter management layer using AVWAP.

Current Status: AVWAP from swing low management continuing, served well last week

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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