Flip, Flop, Repeat – SPX Tests Range Lows While RUT Eyes Another NATH | SPX Market Briefing | 15 Jan 2026

We’re flipping.
We’re flopping.
And if you blinked yesterday, you might have missed two directional changes before your coffee went cold.

SPX has done what SPX loves to do – wandered down to kiss the lower Bollinger Band and tap that longer-term VWAP anchored from mid-December. You know the one. The “range lows” level I’ve been banging on about…

The question now is beautifully simple: Is this yet another flip-flop setup where we bounce back towards highs? Or does the bull finally wrestle control and make a proper run at those tantalizing new all-time highs?

Meanwhile, Uncle Russell decided he’d had enough of that Bollinger Band pinch and promptly launched a bull breakout move. The little fella is now knocking on NATH’s door – again. Just waiting for that pullback to give us the continuation setup we want.

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Market Briefing:

The Flip-Flop Chronicles Continue

If you’ve been following along this week, you’ll know we’ve seen more directional changes than a confused GPS in central London.

Yesterday’s action brought us right back to where the bulls need to make a decision. SPX hit the lower Bollinger Band and tested that longer-term VWAP anchored from mid-December – what I’m now officially calling the “range lows” based on the updated trendline channels we covered in Monday’s group call.

This is exactly the kind of setup where systematic traders thrive. No emotional guessing about whether we bounce or break. Just levels, rules, and mechanical response.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: TnT Bullish Above – PFZ 6885.74 – Target 7005.84

• RUT: TnT Flat – Awaiting Fresh Setup – PFZ 2635.8 – Target Pending

• ES: 7,036.25 – Testing upper range near NATHs

• RTY: 2,666.5-2,677.0 – At NATHs

• YM: 49,876 – At NATHs

• NQ: 26,399.00 – At NATHs

• GC: 4,650.5 – Continuing strength at NATHs

• CL: 59.81 – Downtrend channel continues

• VIX: 16.17 – Elevated but stable

• NYSE Breadth: +742,000 (positive)

RUT Breakout Alert

While SPX plays the range dance, small caps have made their move.

RUT was officially in a range with a textbook Bollinger Band pinch. And just as quick as you can say “squeeze breakout,” the bull move launched with another NATH challenge underway.

Current price sitting at 2,650.22 with the NATH at 2,653.31. That’s kissing distance.

The TnT is showing flat – awaiting fresh setup – which means we’re looking for that pullback to give us the continuation entry. Patience here. The breakout happened. Now we wait for the proper setup to join the party.

Premium Poppers Delivered Again

Yesterday’s action on SPX was Premium Popper paradise. Multiple setup opportunities presented themselves at the opening bell, and those who followed the mechanical rules walked away with nice scalps.

RUT? The AVWAP filter did its job and kept us on the sidelines. No setups meeting criteria means no trades. That’s not failure – that’s discipline.

The system doesn’t care about FOMO. It cares about high-probability setups with defined risk.

What Today Brings

The game plan is beautifully simple:

Tag ‘n Turn: SPX bullish setup remains active with that 7005.84 target. RUT waiting for fresh setup after the breakout move.

Premium Popper: Eyes on the opening range. Let the bell ring, let the volatility pop, and let the mechanical rules tell us what to do.

Lazy Popper: After the opening seesaw settles, we look for those sweet premium collection opportunities into the close.

Same plan. Different day. Mechanical execution continues.

Expert Insights:
The Art of the Flip-Flop

Range environments are where systematic traders separate themselves from the emotional crowd. While everyone else panics at each directional shift, we simply follow the playbook.

When price reaches the lower end of a defined range with supporting confluence – lower BB, VWAP anchor, updated trendline channels – we’re not guessing what happens next. We’re positioning for the mechanical setup.

The flip-flop becomes our friend because we know ranges tend to contain price until they don’t. And when they break? We have setups for that too. Either the bounce continues our range plays, or the break activates our breakout patterns.

Either is good with me. That’s the beauty of mechanical rules over emotional prediction.

Fun Fact:

The “January Barometer” – where January’s performance predicts the full year – has an 86% accuracy rate since WWII. When the S&P 500 finishes January in positive territory, stocks have averaged a 16.2% gain for the full year. No crystal ball required – just calendar patterns doing their thing.

[Source: Fidelity – “January Barometer 2025” – https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/january-barometer]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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