Fed Wednesday Cut: SPX Struggles Higher, RUT Behaves Beautifully | SPX Market Briefing | 15 Sep 2025

Another new week, and we’re halfway through the calendar month with some Fed rate nonsense ahead – apparently it’s a big one. “That’s what she said!”

Getting back on track, SPX continues its struggle higher, but the daily chart tells the real story: ever-decreasing pushes higher with smaller “dips” and less distance between them. The momentum has definitely left the building on this one.

That doesn’t mean we can’t see this continue to chug along and defy gravity – but not indefinitely. Winter is coming, and we’re in crash/correction season after all (September/October).

Meanwhile, Uncle Rus has been having a great old time, behaving far more nicely than SPX’s skittish movements – as if SPX is having a coffee and Red Bull comedown while RUT moves with textbook precision.

Fed Cut Locked and Loaded. Trade It or Get Schooled By It.

Wednesday’s 25bp cut is priced in. The real money’s in Powell’s presser.

SPX Market Briefing:

The charts are painting two very different systematic stories this week.

Current Systematic Status:

• SPX: Bullish momentum fading with decreasing push distances

• RUT: Bearish delivering textbook swing behaviour since month start

• Fed Wednesday: 104% probability of 25bp cut to 4.00-4.25% range

• Seasonal Context: Crash/correction season (Sep/Oct) with winter approaching

The Fed Reality Check:

Bond markets are pricing in virtual certainty (104% probability) that Wednesday brings a 25 basis point cut – the first in nine months. Beyond the rate cut itself, Powell’s press conference will drive risk tone, dollar direction, and the real market movements that matter.

The systematic question isn’t whether they cut (they will), but how Powell signals future moves, addresses tariff risks, or flags labour market softness during the presser.

Chart Analysis:

SPX’s daily action shows classic late-cycle behaviour: struggling higher with diminishing momentum, smaller corrections, and compressed ranges. The moves could be considered far smoother on RUT – almost textbook swing behaviour since we added this at the beginning of the month.

Both the Lazy Popper and Premium Popper setups have been behaving nicely across both indices.

Today’s Systematic Plan:

• SPX: Bullish until proven otherwise, but monitoring momentum deterioration

• RUT: Bearish and executing systematic swings with precision

• Premium Poppers: Waiting for opening bell to fire systematic entries

• Lazy Poppers: Ready for post-open deployment and theta collection

Little to do but wait on both systematic setups and let the Fed Wednesday circus play out while maintaining mechanical discipline.

Expert Insights:

Triple witching events (third Friday of March, June, September, December) create temporary volatility spikes as stock options, index options, and futures expire simultaneously. Friday’s September expiration is now behind us, but the increased volume and position adjustments often leave residual effects into the following week.

Late-cycle momentum divergence between large caps (SPX) and small caps (RUT) often signals underlying market structure shifts. When systematic approaches work better on one index than another, it typically reflects different institutional positioning and flow dynamics.

Fed cut cycles in crash/correction seasons require mechanical discipline over emotional reactions. The cut itself matters less than the systematic response to actual price action following policy implementation.

Fun Fact:

The Great Bull Market of 2009-2020: The 11-Year Victory Lap

The bull market from March 2009 to March 2020 lasted 11 years and gained over 400%-the longest bull run in U.S. history until COVID-19 crashed the party!

This bull market was so legendary it made every previous bull run look like a casual jog around the block. From March 2009 to March 2020, the S&P 500 went on an 11-year bender that gained over 400%, making millionaires out of anyone who managed not to panic-sell during the occasional 5% dip.

The bull market was so long that entire financial careers were built on nothing but upward trending charts—imagine being a “market expert” whose only experience was watching numbers go up for over a decade! This beast of a bull run survived the European debt crisis, trade wars, Brexit panic, and countless “this time it’s different” predictions.

It created a generation of investors who thought “buy the dip” was a divine commandment and that stonks only go up. The party finally ended when a bat in China reminded everyone that sometimes external events can crash markets faster than you can say “diamond hands.” But hey, for 11 glorious years, being bearish was about as profitable as opening an ice cream shop in Antarctica!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

p.s. Need help? Book a call with our team!