Fed Puts Rate Hikes Back On The Table And Markets Flinch Like A Cat Near A Cucumber | SPX Market Briefing | 19 Feb 2026

Has VIX printed a new higher low steepening the gradient incline?

The last 3 days have been an intraday bull struggle. Overnight futures are already starting to roll over towards and past yesterday’s turnaround day lows.

Gonna be fun again and I’m keeping my swings on a tight leash.

SPX sitting under the rising channel lows on the daily chart. Is this simply a breakout retest? The bull TnT fired off at the right moment for the bull swing and we just missed a tag of the upper boundary by a cat’s whisker.

I’ll be using the anchored VWAP again to ensure any fast turnarounds are kept profitable even if it’s a small one.

MACD-v is in the non-trending zone. Something we already know for this week. A push past the 50 levels and beyond the 100 levels will get us back up to some momentum trading moves.

Interestingly the turn on SPX happened as ADD banged on the +1,000 level again.

RUT is a little clearer. Tag of the upper level and flipped to bearish officially. Also interestingly right at the rising VWAP level I was planning to use from a discretionary management viewpoint.

From a naming point of view I’m not sure what we call a head and shoulders into an expanding triangle into a mini rising channel into a diamond into whatever the f%&* this is now.

Premium Poppers did well again yesterday – a fistful of dollars from a bag full of Poppers is being collected from the community despite the swing mess.

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Market Briefing:

Thursday 19 Feb. Markets digest yesterday’s gains and hawkish Fed minutes. SPX +0.56% to 6,881. Nasdaq +0.78%. Dow +0.26% to 49,663. Then the Fed dropped the bomb.

“Several” officials suggested rate hikes could return if inflation stays elevated. Not one voice. Several. Two-sided guidance killed March cut hopes. Polymarket shows 93% chance of no move. Goldman sees holds until June.

Oil exploded 4% after Russia-Ukraine talks collapsed in just two hours. Iran-Russia naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz. Gold reclaimed $5,000. Bitcoin fell to $66,842.

Walmart reports before the bell. First under CEO Furner. Street expects $0.73 EPS on $190B revenue. Then jobless claims, Philly Fed, and speakers Bowman and Kashkari. Friday: PCE inflation.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• ES: 6,877.25 (NATHs 7,043) – rolling over from yesterday’s highs

• YM: 49,587 (NATHs 50,611) – digesting hawkish minutes

• NQ: 24,876.25 (NATHs 26,399) – futures fading

• RTY: 2,651.1 (NATHs 2,749.2) – TnT flipped bearish

• GC: 5,012.6 (NATHs 5,626.8) – back above $5K on geopolitical risk

• CL: 65.80 – surged 4% on Russia-Ukraine collapse

• VIX: 20.50 – new higher low steepening gradient, 18.52 lower level

• BTC/USD: 66,785.88 (was 93,161) – $8.5B fled spot ETFs since October

• NYSE Advance-Decline: +280,000 (mildly positive)

VIX – Higher Low Steepens The Gradient

VIX at 20.50 with the lower channel boundary at 18.52.

VIX has printed a new higher low. The gradient of the ascending lower trendline is steepening. Each low is higher than the last. Each push to the upper boundary is from a higher starting point.

The channel still holds. Upper boundary. Lower boundary. But the lower boundary is tilting upward more aggressively now.

What does a steepening VIX lower trendline mean? The floor under volatility is rising. Even when VIX pulls back from spikes, it’s not pulling back as far as it used to. The market’s baseline level of fear is ratcheting higher.

This is consistent with what options premiums are telling us. More “insurance” being priced in. The structure is still building. When it breaks, the break will be bigger because the coil is tighter and the floor is higher.

For now the channel delivers. We used it. It worked. But the steepening gradient is the slow-burning clue.

SPX Tag ‘n Turn – Cat’s Whisker From The Upper Boundary

Tag ‘n Turn Status:

The TnT remains bullish above 6,803.43. Target has adjusted down slightly from 6,995.84 to 6,952.88 as the range recalibrates.

The bull swing fired at the right moment. Price pushed up and just missed a tag of the upper boundary by a cat’s whisker. The “Bearish @ Upper Range” zone near 7,005/7,002.28 and the PFZ Flip area at 6,978.68 are right there.

Now overnight futures are rolling over. The last 3 days have been an intraday bull struggle. Each day grinds higher, stalls at resistance, and futures fade overnight.

The daily chart shows price at 6,881.32 sitting under the rising channel lows. Is this simply a breakout retest? The channel that was support now acts as resistance from below. Classic technical behavior.

MACD-v is in the non-trending zone. Something we already know for this week. A push past the 50 levels and beyond the 100 levels will get us back up to some momentum trading moves.

The turn on SPX happened as ADD banged on the +1,000 level again. That level keeps showing up as a turning point. Today ADD at +280 – mildly positive but nothing decisive.

Using the anchored VWAP to manage fast turnarounds. Keep profitable even if it’s a small one. Tight leash on swings.

SPX Gamma Exposure – 8 Points From Flipping Positive

GEX Data (18 Feb):

That’s the gap between SPX and the gamma flip. On Monday it was 132 points. Tuesday it was 86 points. Today it’s 8.53.

The gamma flip has been falling towards price all week. From 6,968 on Monday to 6,929 on Tuesday to 6,889 today. Price has been rising. The two lines are converging.

If SPX crosses above 6,889.84 we flip into positive gamma territory. Dealers start buying dips and selling rips. That stabilizes rallies and suppresses downside volatility.

The GEX chart now shows positive gamma (green) to the right of the flip point and negative gamma (red) to the left. Price is sitting right on the edge.

RUT – The OJ Pattern Is Officially Born

Tag ‘n Turn Status:

RUT has flipped bearish below 2,648.39. Tagged the upper level and reversed. Targeting 2,603.99 on the downside.

The bearish flip happened right at the rising VWAP level. That’s the discretionary management level I was planning to use. When the system and the discretionary view align, pay attention.

Daily chart at 2,658.61 with price pulling back from the 2,686 area. The 30-minute shows the Bearish TnT tag active with PFZ Flip confirmed at the upper range.

Now. From a naming point of view. This pattern has been through more identity crises than is reasonable. Let’s review the journey:

Head and shoulders → mutated into an expanding triangle → morphed into a mini rising channel → evolved into a diamond → and now into whatever the f%&* this is.

The measured move target sits at 2,603.99. That’s “Target Range Lows” territory on the chart. The bearish case is active and targeting the lower boundary.

MACD-v showing mixed signals. The grind continues.

Fed Hawks Drop The Bomb

“Several” officials suggested rate hikes could return. That’s the word from the FOMC minutes. Not “one member.” Several.

This is significant. Two-sided guidance. The door to rate cuts hasn’t closed but a second door to rate hikes has opened. March cut hopes are dead. Polymarket at 93% chance of no move. Goldman sees holds until June.

The hawkish tilt landed on a market already dealing with:

• Oil surging 4% (inflationary)

• Russia-Ukraine talks collapsing in two hours

• Iran-Russia naval drills near Hormuz

• Software sector still bleeding

Rate hikes plus rising oil equals an inflation scare scenario. The bond market responded – 10-year yield at 4.079%. Not panic. But attention.

Oil Explodes, Gold Reclaims $5K

Oil surged 4% to $65.80 after Russia-Ukraine talks collapsed in just two hours. Add Iran-Russia naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz and you have a supply-disruption cocktail.

Gold reclaimed $5,000 at 5,012.6. Silver rallied 6%. Central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and inflation fears all converging.

Two days ago the market shrugged off Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Today it can’t shrug off collapsed peace talks. The nonchalance has limits.

For the Fed this creates a headache. Rising oil is inflationary. If they’re already talking about rate hikes, oil at $65+ doesn’t help the doves.

Earnings Divergence – Quality Matters

Wednesday after-hours split sharply. Quality separation accelerating.

• Carvana -22% on EBITDA miss – used cars meet reality

• DoorDash reversed from -10% to +10% during its earnings call – narrative matters

• Figma +16% crushing estimates – AI-adjacent design tools working

• eBay +7% acquiring Depop for $1.2B

• Booking +1% with 25:1 stock split announced

• Molson Coors -6% on inflation warning

Walmart reports before the bell. $0.73 EPS expected, $190B revenue. First earnings under new CEO Furner. The $1T retailer captured 75% of share gains from $100K+ households. The ultimate consumer health check.

Premium Poppers – Fistful Of Dollars

Poppers did well again yesterday. A fistful of dollars from a bag full of Poppers being collected from the community despite the swing mess.

The intraday bull struggle makes longer swings harder. But the Poppers don’t care about the struggle. Short duration. Take the scalp. Leave it.

VIX at 20.50 still provides the elevated premium. Keeping swings on a tight leash and using anchored VWAP for fast turnarounds. If the market pivots, the AVWAP keeps the trade profitable even if it’s a small one.

Follow the process.

PopPop.

1 – Stagflation cocktail: Apollo Global Management flagged stagflation as their #1 risk for 2026 back in December. RSM Economics calls it “stagflation lite.” PPI jumped 0.5% in January pushing YoY to 3.0%. Core PCE stuck at 2.8%. Now Fed hawks talking hikes on the same day oil surges 4% on war. The 1970s parallel is real and sourced. All verified from Apollo, RSM, and BLS data.

2 – Walmart trade-down as macro signal: The 75% from $100K+ households isn’t just a Walmart story – it’s a late-cycle economic indicator. The key question for today’s call is whether Furner frames it as permanent or temporary. Evercore and DA Davidson have warned fiscal ’26 guidance could miss by 3-5%. Last year Walmart dropped 6.5% on a similar beat-but-guide-low setup. If the trade-down is accelerating, consumer stress is migrating up the income ladder. All sourced from analyst notes and earnings previews.

3 – Breadth divergence: 320 stocks rose Wednesday. 63% above 50-day MA. Yet Nasdaq in 5th weekly decline. That’s rotation, not capitulation. Most stocks are fine – the ones that aren’t are spectacularly not fine. That distinction determines whether this is a correction or something worse.

This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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