Fed Day Arrives Whilst Indexes Diverge Like Caffeine-Fueled Reality TV Contestants | SPX Market Briefing | 29 Oct 2025

Today’s the day – Fed Day. The rest of the week’s news has unsurprisingly been cancelled again because of what’s turning out to be another weird episode of Big Brother “Government Shutdown” edition!

All four indexes are starting to diverge from each other in spectacular fashion. Russell has already stalled. Dow is showing signs of exhaustion. S&P is experiencing slowing momentum. And Nasdaq’s last caffeine hit has just kicked in and is ready to carry on partying like it’s 1999 all over again.

Apart from that, everything is just fine!

Crude oil is slipping past the $60 level previously noted. Gold is reacting nicely off its recent AVWAP line – will this be the push back to NATHs or the start of the grind sideways noted in yesterday’s letter? Time will tell.

On my usual trading timeframes with SPX and RUT, the bull is bulling and the bear is bearing. Nothing really to do for the moment but collect that theta whilst the world sorts itself out.

I’ll most likely take the day to myself given the news and the wild reactions we’re seeing as a result of whatever reports, economic releases, or suggestions get released to Wall Street. Any excuse is being used to jump-start the next big move. This week, Mag 7 earnings and rate cuts are going to be used as excuses for something. LOL.

For the moment, I shall remain cautious and wait for my moments to pounce.

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SPX Market Briefing:

Fed Day Wednesday arrives with indexes diverging in four different directions whilst government shutdown chaos cancels the rest of the week’s news and systematic traders collect theta waiting for clarity.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: Bear TnT, bullish above flipped, at NATHs (6911.30/6900.88), slowing momentum

• RUT: Bear TnT, neutral awaiting fresh setup, “Range Active 7” showing, already stalled

• ES: 6936.00, continuing grind

• NQ: 26,297.75, last caffeine hit activated, ready to party

• YM: 47,760, showing exhaustion signs

• CL: $59.96, slipped past $60 level as predicted

• GC: $4037.70, reacting off July AVWAP line (~$3995), decision point

• VIX: 16.34, remarkably calm for Fed Day

• DXY: 98.799, contained

Big Brother: Government Shutdown Edition

The rest of the week’s news has been cancelled. Again. Because apparently we’re filming another episode of Big Brother “Government Shutdown” edition, and nobody told the markets they were supposed to care.

This is becoming a recurring sitcom at this point. Markets barely blink anymore when government dysfunction headlines arrive. “Oh, another shutdown extension? Cool. Anyway, back to front-running the Fed…”

The desensitization is complete. Government chaos? Background noise. Extended shutdowns? Meh. Fed rate decision and Mag 7 earnings? NOW WE’RE TALKING.

This is the reality we trade in: actual governance dysfunction gets treated like elevator music whilst quarter-point rate cuts and tech earnings drive trillion-dollar market moves.

Apart from that, everything is just fine!

Current Status: Government shutdown episode filming, markets ignoring dysfunction, Fed Day taking precedence

Four-Way Index Divergence – Reality TV Caffeine Edition

Here’s where things get properly entertaining: All four indexes are starting to diverge from each other like reality TV contestants on wildly different caffeine schedules.

Uncle Russell: Already stalled. The expanding triangle pattern continues holding. “Range Active 7” showing on charts. Momentum gone. Energy depleted. Uncle Russ is sitting this one out.

Dow Jones: Showing signs of exhaustion. YM around 47,760, grinding higher but lacking conviction. The old-school industrials are tired. They’ve seen this movie before. They’re not buying the hype.

S&P 500: Slowing momentum. SPX at NATHs around 6911, still grinding but the pace is decelerating. Not stalled like Russell. Not exhausted like Dow. Just… slowing. Hesitant. Waiting.

Nasdaq: Last caffeine hit just kicked in! NQ at 26,297, ready to carry on partying like it’s 1999 all over again! Tech mega-caps front-running earnings! Mag 7 optimism! Innovation narrative! TO THE MOON!

Four indexes. Four completely different energy levels. Four diverging paths.

This is classic late-cycle behavior when leadership narrows dramatically. When only the caffeinated tech stocks can maintain upward momentum whilst everything else stalls, exhausts, or slows.

Divergence doesn’t persist indefinitely. Something breaks. Either Nasdaq pulls everyone higher, or reality pulls Nasdaq lower.

Current Status: Four-way divergence developing, Russell stalled, Dow exhausted, SPX slowing, Nasdaq caffeinated

Fed Day – Excuses For Something

Today’s the day. FOMC announcement at 2:00pm. Powell press conference at 2:30pm. Quarter-point rate cut fully priced in.

But here’s the thing: I’ll most likely take the day to myself given the news and the wild reactions we’re seeing as a result of whatever reports, economic releases, or suggestions get released to Wall Street.

Any excuse is being used to jump-start the next big move.

This week, Mag 7 earnings and rate cuts are going to be used as excuses for something. LOL.

Think about it:

• Apple reporting? Excuse to move.

• Amazon earnings? Excuse to move.

• Alphabet results? Excuse to move.

• Meta numbers? Excuse to move.

• Microsoft guidance? Excuse to move.

• Fed cuts rates? Excuse to move.

• Powell says anything? Excuse to move.

• Taco Tweet – you got it

Markets are searching desperately for catalysts to justify the next leg – either continuation higher or reversal lower. Every data point becomes ammunition. Every headline becomes validation.

The excuse doesn’t matter. The direction was already decided. The news just provides permission.

Current Status: Fed Day catalyst hunting, Mag 7 earnings as excuse generator, wild reactions anticipated

Crude Past $60 – Prediction Validated

Crude oil is slipping past the $60 level previously noted. Currently around $59.96, the technical prediction from recent briefings plays out perfectly.

Remember the setup: YTD VWAP resistance held. Prior swing highs swept in stop-running behavior. $60 support testing anticipated. Break below opens $56 revisit.

Prediction: Validated. Technical analysis: Working. Systematic approach: Delivering.

The $60 level wasn’t some arbitrary number. It was a clear technical support level derived from proper chart analysis and price action understanding. When systematic frameworks identify levels that actually matter, price respects them.

Now we watch whether $60 holds on retests or if the slide continues toward $56. Either outcome provides tradable setups for those following mechanical rules rather than guessing directions.

Current Status: CL past $60 as predicted, $56 revisit possible, systematic analysis validated

Gold At AVWAP Decision Point

Gold is reacting nicely off its recent AVWAP line from the July lows. Currently around $4037, testing that critical support level established yesterday.

Here’s the question: Will this be the push back to NATHs, or the start of the grind sideways noted in yesterday’s letter?

Time will tell.

Two possible paths:

1. Bounce to NATHs: Support holds, buyers step in, gold rallies back toward $4100+ psychological resistance

2. April Redux: Sideways consolidation for extended period, base-building, range-bound behavior

Both scenarios are valid. Both follow recent historical patterns. Both provide systematic trading opportunities depending on which develops.

What we don’t do: Predict which outcome occurs and position before confirmation. What we do: Wait for price action to clarify direction, then execute mechanical rules when criteria meet.

Gold bugs remain excited. But excitement doesn’t create automatic setups. Patience and proper criteria do.

Current Status: Gold bouncing off July AVWAP (~$3995), decision point between NATH push or sideways grind

Bull Bulling, Bear Bearing, Theta Collecting

On my usual trading timeframes with SPX and RUT, the bull is bulling and the bear is bearing.

SPX Bull TnT flipped and active. RUT Bear TnT holding pattern. Both behaving exactly as systematic frameworks predict they should.

Nothing really to do for the moment but collect that theta.

This is proper systematic trading during high-volatility catalyst events: Positions established. Rules followed. Greeks managed. Theta collected. Patience maintained.

No FOMO chasing Fed announcements. No emotional reactions to Powell’s facial expressions. No panic adjustments based on headline algorithms.

Just systematic execution. Mechanical patience. Theta collection whilst chaos erupts around the trading floor.

For the moment, I shall remain cautious and wait for my moments to pounce.

This isn’t inaction. This is disciplined positioning. When setups meet criteria – pounce. When chaos reigns without clear signals – collect theta and spectate.

Current Status: Bull bulling, bear bearing, theta collecting, cautious pouncing positioning maintained

Wild Reactions And Excuse Generation

The wild reactions we’re seeing as a result of whatever reports, economic releases, or suggestions get released to Wall Street tell the real story.

Markets aren’t responding to fundamentals. They’re responding to narrative permission.

Every data point gets interpreted through the lens of “does this justify our next move?” Every Fed word gets analyzed for “can we use this as an excuse?”

This week: Mag 7 earnings plus rate cuts equal excuses for something. LOL.

The laugh is necessary because the absurdity deserves acknowledgement. Markets have decided they want to move. Direction uncertain. But movement certain. Now we just need official permission in the form of Fed decisions and tech earnings.

Whatever those catalysts deliver – good, bad, mixed – they’ll be used to justify whatever direction was already queued up.

Any excuse will do. The excuse is irrelevant. The predetermined direction is everything.

Systematic traders recognize this game and refuse to play. We don’t predict direction. We respond to confirmation. We execute mechanical rules. We collect theta whilst others chase excuses.

Current Status: Wild excuse-driven reactions anticipated, systematic patience maintained, predetermined direction awaiting official permission

Fun Fact:

When Markets Met the Moon Landing July 21, 1969: NYSE floor traders stopped for Armstrong’s first steps

On July 21, 1969, the New York Stock Exchange halted trading at 12:43 PM ET as Neil Armstrong stepped onto the moon. Floor traders gathered around television sets to witness history. When trading resumed, the Dow closed up 5.91 points at 881.52. The “moon landing bounce” proved short-lived as markets worried about Vietnam War costs and inflation – the Dow wouldn’t break 1,000 until November 1972. Proving that even lunar achievements can’t fix fiscal policy.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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