End of Week Sprint, End of Month Shenanigans: Bears Flip to Bulls at ATH | SPX Market Briefing | 29 Aug 2025

Hey traders!

Once again we slide into the end of the week sprint combined with end of the month trading – we often see some funny business on the last Friday of the month and last day of the calendar month. Both are the same this time, which could make for interesting market behavior.

Sloppy price movement may well follow as the norm dictates. When monthly expirations, portfolio rebalancing, and Friday positioning all collide, systematic traders know to expect anything except predictability.

The bear swing from last week took a very small loss of around 17% for me before we flipped back to bullish – and right on a new all-time high, too. Sometimes the market has perfect comedic timing: “Oh, you want to be bearish? Here’s a fresh ATH for your troubles.”

It’ll be interesting to see if we get some follow-through into the end of the week, especially with this positioning.

SPX Pays Daily. If You Know This One Setup.

Pulse bar + credit spread = reliable income. It’s that simple.

Unlock the SPX Strategy!

SPX Market Briefing:

The charts tell the story of systematic precision meeting market unpredictability – exactly the environment where mechanical approaches prove their worth.

Current System Status:

• Bear Swing: Closed for small 17% loss before bullish flip

• Bull Swing: Active and running at new all-time high levels

• Pinch Point Range: Almost confirmed but not quite there yet

• Premium/Lazy Poppers: Delivered great results yesterday for students

• End of Month: Last Friday + last calendar day = potential sloppy movements

We’re also close to entering a new pinch point range – almost there but isn’t actually there yet, so we wait. This is the kind of technical precision that separates systematic traders from emotional guessers.

Yesterday’s Systematic Results: Premium Popper and Lazy Popper setups delivered great results for both students and myself. Personally, I focused on the Premium Poppers at the open since I had other business to attend to. Got two quick opening scalps instead of the usual one, which balanced out missing the Lazy Popper setup.

Sometimes tactical adjustments work in your favor – two smaller wins can equal one larger win, especially when time management requires prioritizing the faster setups.

Today’s Mechanical Game Plan: Looking forward to today, it’s more of the same systematic approach:

Stay Mechanical – The foundation of everything we do. Rules over emotions, process over predictions.

Bull Swing – Currently bulling and will continue until technical conditions change or failure levels trigger.

Popper Setups – Premium and Lazy Poppers await opening price movements before the algo fires off setups. No forcing, just mechanical patience.

The beauty of end-of-month/end-of-week combinations is that systematic approaches handle the chaos better than emotional reactions. When funny business arrives, mechanical discipline becomes even more valuable.

In Other News…

Futures doing their best impression of enthusiasm

ES crawled to +0.19% by 6:25 AM like Kash pretending to care about quarterly reviews. NQ managed +0.26% while YM shuffled to +0.23% – collectively showing about as much excitement as Percy discovering the office has switched to generic tea bags. Overnight ranges tighter than Wallie’s schedule when actual work appears.

Sector musical chairs continues

Energy going soft again as crude oil decides gravity still exists, dragging the whole sector down like Mac’s productivity after discovering social media. Semiconductors having another personality crisis – chip equipment firms standing firm while data-center darlings fade faster than office resolutions. Banks treading water as yield curves refuse to cooperate with their profit fantasies.

Earnings drip-feed of corporate reality

Salesforce reporting after close because apparently enterprise software needed more dramatic timing. Macy’s pre-emptively whimpering about weaker Q3 traffic, proving retail optimism has the lifespan of mayflies. Teladoc lifting revenue views 2% on corporate demand – because nothing says “workplace wellness” like avoiding your colleagues via video calls.

Cross-asset tedium reaches new heights

Dollar index flexing to 98.1 while ten-year yield parks at 4.30% unchanged, displaying all the movement of a particularly lazy sloth. Gold slipping to $3,330, down 0.4% like it’s given up on monetary chaos entirely. Brent at $66.9 pretending yesterday’s enthusiasm never happened. VIX at 13.5 after Nvidia’s fade because apparently even volatility finds this market boring.

Expert Insights:

End-of-month and end-of-week combinations often create increased volatility as institutional rebalancing meets retail positioning adjustments. Systematic approaches that wait for confirmed setups rather than predicting movement directions typically perform better during these periods.

New all-time highs immediately following small bearish losses demonstrate why position management rules matter more than directional accuracy. The 17% loss represents controlled risk rather than catastrophic failure.

Pinch point ranges require precise technical confirmation rather than approximate levels. “Almost there” means waiting for actual confirmation rather than jumping into premature positioning.

Fun Fact:

According to research by the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the last trading day of the month has historically shown a bullish bias, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.1% on average since 1950. However, when the last trading day falls on a Friday, the average return increases to 0.2% due to weekend positioning effects.

[Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac – “Month-End Trading Patterns”]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

p.s. Need help? Book a call with our team!