Down Monday, Up Tuesday, Place Your Bets for Wednesday | SPX Market Briefing | 25 Feb 2026

The yoyo up-and-down day moves continue. Down Monday. Up Tuesday. Should we guess at a down Wednesday? At this point the market’s got all the directional conviction of a shopping trolley with a wonky wheel.

But the theta is decaying despite the non-committal directional moves and the Premium Poppers are keeping me once again sane and banking benjamins.

Just 3 trades yesterday – done on the mobile whilst out celebrating a nearly 80th birthday. Cranking it in at 79 and still sprightly enough to throw some shapes without throwing a hip out. That’s the lifestyle trading dream right there.

Anyway – SPX and RUT. I’m calling it another range. We’re not quite in the pinch area – but if you look back to the 12th, that was pinch territory. Given the situation, close enough is good enough. Pop a big box around the mess and wait for the breakout. RUT same treatment.

And then there’s tonight. Nvidia reports after the close. The street expects $1.53 EPS and $65.7B revenue. Twelve consecutive quarterly beats. But this one carries different weight because the entire software sector has been decimated this month and the market needs Jensen Huang to either validate or destroy the AI narrative in one single earnings call.

No pressure, Jensen.

Let’s see what Wednesday brings. PopPop.

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Market Briefing: Turnaround Tuesday – the Numbers

After Monday’s 822-point Dow bloodbath, Tuesday delivered the bounce. As it does. As the yoyo demands.

S&P 500: +0.77% to 6,890. Back above the 50-day MA at 6,896 – just about.

Dow: +370 points to 49,174. Clawing back less than half of Monday’s losses. IBM still limping.

Nasdaq: +1.04% to 22,863. AMD surged 8.8% on Meta’s $6GW AI chip deal. Software names got a relief bounce – ServiceNow, Intuit, Salesforce each up 3% after Monday’s Anthropic panic.

VIX: settled to 19.50. Pulled back slightly from Monday’s 21+ spike but still holding the elevated channel.

Consumer confidence beat at 91.2 versus 86.8 expected. A rare bright spot.

The Nvidia Question – Tonight After Close

Here’s what’s at stake: one earnings call determines whether February’s AI carnage was a buying opportunity or a warning shot.

Nvidia reports fiscal Q4 after the close tonight. The numbers: $1.53 EPS consensus, $65.7B revenue (Nvidia’s own guidance was $65B +/- 2%). That’s 68% revenue growth year-over-year. Twelve consecutive quarterly beats with an average surprise of 7.46%. [Source: 24/7 Wall St – “Nvidia Earnings Preview” – 247wallst.com]

But the beat margins have been narrowing – from 11.9% in Q1 FY2024 to 4.8% in Q3 FY2026. The market’s getting closer to the actual trajectory. Polymarket prices a 93% chance Nvidia beats EPS but only 25% chance the stock closes above $200 by month end. That gap tells the whole story. [Source: 24/7 Wall St]

What actually matters tonight:

Q1 FY2027 guidance. Street expects around $70.7B. Anything above $75B and the stock re-rates higher. Anything below and February’s software carnage gets a sequel.

Blackwell commentary. The chip is sold out through mid-2026. Total pipeline visibility through end of calendar 2026: $500B in combined Blackwell and Rubin orders. UBS expects $9B in Blackwell revenue this quarter alone. [Source: TradingKey – “Nvidia Q4 Earnings Preview”]

Gross margins. CFO Colette Kress targeting mid-70s for FY2027. The path from 73.6% in Q3 to 75% in Q4 shows whether pricing power holds as Blackwell scales.

The macro context makes this bigger than usual. Nvidia now weighs nearly 8% of the S&P 500. Software stocks are down 25% YTD. Hyperscaler capex commitments have reached $600-700B for 2026. The entire AI trade – the thing that’s powered markets for two years – gets its quarterly health check tonight.

Options pricing implies a 6% move either direction. In a market that’s already been yoyoing 1% daily, that’s jet fuel.

The Charts – Box the Mess

SPX – I’m calling it another range. We’re not quite in the pinch area on the Bollinger Band Width, but if you look back to 12 Feb, that was pinch territory. Given the situation, close enough is good enough.

Pop a big box around the mess and wait for the breakout. The TnT shows Bullish Above 6,880.53 with target at 6,913.12. We closed at 6,890 – inside the trigger but “Bearish @ Upper” is still flagged. Target Range Lows labelled below. ATR 82.56 giving decent daily ranges.

Below 6,750 takes us out of the entire messy zone for what could be the seasonal corrective breakdown. Above the 6,978 resistance and we’re talking new highs. Between those levels? Noise. Yoyo. Theta’s playground.

RUT – same treatment. Pop a big box around it. Bullish Above 2,653.31, target 2,683.56. “Bearish @ Upper Range” still present. Right Shoulder pattern visible on the 30-min. Below 2,570 gives the clear new ground signal. Above 2,735 and Uncle Russell’s partying. Between? Same mess, same box, same theta decay.

SPX Technical

Daily: SPX at 6,890.06 / 6,827.64. NATHs at 7,002.28. ATR 82.56. Not quite pinch territory but approaching – look back to 12 Feb for reference.

30-Min TnT:

“Bearish @ Upper” flagged. Target Range Lows labelled. BBW approaching pinch levels. Close enough is good enough given the current chaos.

MACD-v: Watching for the momentum shift that confirms the breakout direction.

The read: Box the mess. The yoyo continues. Down Monday, up Tuesday, the pattern’s been fiddler’s elbow for weeks now. Great for time decay on both sides. The breakout from this box determines whether we get the seasonal correction (below 6,750) or another run at highs (above 6,978). Nvidia tonight could be the catalyst that picks the direction.

RUT Technical (Uncle Russell)

Daily: RUT at 2,652.33. Upper resistance at 2,735.10.

30-Min TnT:

Right Shoulder pattern visible. Same box-the-mess treatment. Below 2,570 = clear new ground signal. Uncle Russell’s sitting right at the Bullish Above line – literally on the knife edge.

Tuesday’s Premium Poppers

Just 3 trades done on the mobile while out celebrating a 79th birthday. Cranking it in at 79 and still sprightly enough to throw some shapes without throwing a hip out. That’s what lifestyle trading looks like.

SPX Poppers: 2 trades

• 1x 1st Breakout + 1x 3rd Breakout

• Index gains: $20 / $20

• Option ROC: 69.2% / 61.5%

  

  RUT Poppers: 1 trade

  • 1x 1st Breakout with slightly mismanaged exit (forgot to set orders correctly – still profitable)

  • Index gain: $12

  • Option ROC: 57.2%

  The honest note: the RUT trade should have been exited earlier at the 1st BO level. Late trade management from being at a party. But that’s the beauty of the system – even a slightly mismanaged trade with forgotten order settings still banks profit. The framework protects you from yourself.

  

  Today’s Agenda

  Nvidia after close – the only thing that matters today. $65.7B expected. Q1 guidance is the real number. Also reporting: Salesforce, Snowflake, Lowe’s, TJX. Trump’s State of the Union was last night – markets digesting any overnight implications. 10-year yield near late-November lows. Gold holding $5,205. VIX steady at 19.50.

1 – Nvidia’s beat margin compression tells a story the headline won’t. Over the past eight quarters, Nvidia’s EPS surprise has narrowed from 11.9% to 4.8%. That’s not weakness – that’s Wall Street getting better at modelling Nvidia. The consensus is converging on reality. This means the days of massive upside surprises may be ending even if growth remains extraordinary. Polymarket’s 93% beat probability but only 25% chance of closing above $200 captures this perfectly. The market has already priced the beat. What it hasn’t priced is the magnitude. Anything less than a $2-3B revenue upside surprise and the stock may sell on the news despite technically beating. The era of “shock and awe” Nvidia earnings may be transitioning to “execute and maintain.”

[Source: 24/7 Wall St, Polymarket, TradingKey]

2 – AMD’s Meta deal reveals something about the AI hardware market most people missed. AMD surged 8.8% Tuesday on Meta’s $6GW AI chip deal. That’s significant because it shows hyperscalers are actively diversifying their GPU supply chains away from Nvidia dependency. Meta choosing AMD for a major infrastructure build isn’t a rejection of Nvidia – it’s insurance. When your total capex budget approaches $200B annually, single-supplier risk becomes existential. If Nvidia’s Q1 guidance shows any supply constraint commentary tonight, it paradoxically validates AMD’s position as the overflow valve. The AI hardware market may be large enough for two winners, which changes the investment calculus from “Nvidia vs everyone” to “Nvidia AND complementary players.”

[Source: Market data, AMD earnings context]

3 – The S&P 500 is trapped between two moving averages and Nvidia holds the key. The index sits between the 100-day MA (6,823) and 50-day MA (6,896). Multiple tests of support are raising bearish flags. This technical compression, combined with the Bollinger Band Width approaching pinch territory, creates a coiled spring. Nvidia’s earnings tonight are the most likely catalyst to resolve the compression. A strong beat and guide pushes above the 50-day toward the 6,978 resistance. A disappointment sends it through the 100-day toward the 6,750 breakdown. The S&P 500 has effectively become an 8% leveraged bet on one company’s quarterly guidance.

[Source: Market technical data, S&P composition]

In Other News…

Nvidia Reports Tonight – the AI Trade’s Final Exam $65.7B expected, 12 consecutive beats, but the beat margins are shrinking

This isn’t just an earnings call. It’s a referendum on the entire AI investment thesis. Software stocks down 25% YTD. Hyperscaler capex at $600-700B. IBM just lost $31B to a blog post. The market needs Jensen Huang to confirm that the trillions being spent on AI infrastructure aren’t a bubble. No pressure.

[Source: Kiplinger, 24/7 Wall St, Motley Fool]

AMD Surges 8.8% on Meta’s $6GW AI Chip Deal Hyperscalers diversifying GPU supply chains away from Nvidia dependency

Meta signing a major deal with AMD sends a clear signal: the big spenders aren’t putting all their chips (literally) in one basket. AMD’s MI400 series is gaining traction. The AI hardware market might be big enough for two winners. Nvidia’s response tonight matters.

[Source: Market data]

Workday Crashes 10% After Hours – CEO Resigns Q1 guidance miss sends another software name into the woodchipper

The AI disruption carnage continues in enterprise software. Workday missed Q1 guidance and announced its CEO’s resignation in the same breath. First Solar also dropped 10% on weak guidance. HP trimmed its outlook on tariff costs. The after-hours bloodbath adds to February’s software sector horror show.

Bitcoin Bounces to $65,500 but Nobody’s Celebrating Fear Index improved from 5 to 11 – still extreme fear territory

ETF inflows returned $205M Tuesday, breaking weeks of institutional selling. Bitcoin clawed back above $65K. But “improved from 5 to 11 on the fear scale” is like saying the patient’s fever dropped from 41 to 40. Still critically ill. The dead cat bounces continue.

Expert Insights:

Why “Box the Mess and Wait” Is a Legitimate Strategy

When the charts look like someone dropped spaghetti on them and neither bulls nor bears can claim new ground, there’s a temptation to force a directional view. Don’t.

Here’s what I do instead: pop a big box around the mess and wait for the breakout. SPX has been grinding between roughly 6,750 on the low end and 6,978 on the high end. RUT’s doing the same between 2,570 and 2,735. Inside those ranges? It’s noise. The yoyo. The fiddler’s elbow.

The Bollinger Band Width is approaching pinch territory – not quite there, but look back to 12 Feb and that was the real pinch. Given the current situation with tariff chaos, Nvidia tonight, and correction season, close enough is good enough.

What matters is the breakout. Below 6,750 on SPX and we’re talking seasonal correction territory. Above 6,978 and it’s new highs. Until one of those levels breaks, the range is the range.

And inside the range? Theta decays. Premium Poppers collect. The system doesn’t need to predict which way the breakout goes. It just needs to collect while the market decides.

The range is the range. PopPop.

Fun Fact:

Nvidia’s Q4 revenue expectation of $65.7 billion means the company generates more revenue in a single quarter than Coca-Cola does in an entire year.

For context, Nvidia’s quarterly revenue has grown from $6B (Q4 FY2023) to $65.7B (Q4 FY2026) – an eleven-fold increase in three years. That’s the fastest revenue scale-up of any company in market history.

The company now weighs nearly 8% of the S&P 500, meaning the index has effectively become a leveraged bet on one chipmaker’s ability to keep exceeding expectations every 90 days.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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