Deal Or No Deal. That Is The Hormuz Question.

Deal or no deal. That is the Hormuz question.

Yesterday was historic. Dow +2.85%. S&P +2.51%. Nasdaq +2.80%. WTI cratered 16%. Best session since April 2025. The TACO delivered and the markets celebrated accordingly.

This morning, that deal looks shaky.

Iran’s parliament speaker flagged three ceasefire clauses as already breached. The IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic was halted again after Israel struck Lebanon overnight. Iran says that voids the terms. Futures edged lower when the headlines hit. S&P at 6,809. Down 0.22%. The four-day rally is stalling.

It is interesting to see where prices stopped moving yesterday. Right at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high. That is a very deliberate-looking level to pause at. The chart knew where the resistance was.

SPX has a new TnT signal with the latest system update and scoring. This one carries a normal confidence rating and I am using a Friday expiry 2-DTE. The setup comes with a warning grade though – because despite being at a bullish MACD-v extreme, we may see price snap back in a similar way to 2 April, with no bull tag developing. Trades and profits on a tight leash. The market is resting before the next bull leg, not necessarily reversing.

RUT is showing a similar picture and I have taken a similar shorter-dated trade.

The main fly in the ointment on both is the gap. Gaps like to fill. This is a big one. So it is a question of when – sooner or later.

As for yesterday’s Premium Popper – the new scoring system flagged a low confidence level on SPX. Half size or leave it was the action. I chose to leave it in the group session, which as far as I can see was the right thing to do given the subsequent sideways grind. I will chalk that up as a win in the penny saved is a penny earned column.

FOMC minutes from March warned of stagflation – growth slowing, inflation sticky, rate held at 3.50-3.75%, one cut penciled in for 2026. PCE follows today. CPI tomorrow – first to capture the full oil shock. JPMorgan still projects 3.4%.

Market Briefing: Thursday 9 Apr – ceasefire morning two.

• Wednesday closed: S&P +2.51% to 6,782 / Dow +2.85% to 47,910 / Nasdaq +2.80% to 22,635 / best session since April 2025

  • WTI -16% to $94.41 / VIX -18% to 21.04 / 10-year yield dropped to 4.291%

  • Royal Caribbean +8% / Delta +12% premarket Wednesday / energy reversed

• Overnight ceasefire cracks:

  • Iran parliament: three ceasefire clauses breached

  • IRGC: Hormuz tanker traffic halted again after Israel struck Lebanon

  • Iran: Israel’s action voids the terms

  • Futures -0.22% / S&P 6,809 / Dow 48,044 / Nasdaq 25,031

• Delta Q1: revenue beat / Q2 guidance below expectations / jet fuel still elevated

• FOMC minutes: stagflation warning / growth slowing / inflation sticky / one cut penciled for 2026 / Powell term expires May 23

• Today: PCE 8:30am ET / CPI Friday

• Thursday read: price stalled at anchored bearish VWAP / new bearish TnT both instruments / warning grade / 2-DTE Friday trades on tight leash / gap below wants filling / question of when

Market Snapshot

• ES: 6,800.75 / -15.50 (-0.23%) / euphoria fading / stalled at anchored VWAP

• YM: 47,973 / -123 (-0.26%) / Dow giving back overnight

• NQ: 24,997.75 / -41.25 (-0.16%) / tech holding relatively well

• RTY: 2,623.20 / -9.10 (-0.35%) / RUT also stalling

• GC: 4,736.40 / -8.60 (-0.18%) / steady / safe-haven bid easing

• CL: 97.56 / +1.06 (+1.10%) / WTI bouncing off $94 / Hormuz uncertainty restoring premium

• VIX: 21.38 / +0.33 (+1.57%) / still near the 22 level / monitoring the rising trendline

• BTC: 70,968.00 / -0.17% / holding above $70K / Morgan Stanley MSBT launched

Tag ‘n Turn

New bearish TnT on both SPX and RUT. Warning grade applies. MACD-v at bullish extreme means a snap back without developing into a full bear move is possible – similar to 2 April. Tight leash. 2-DTE Friday expiry trades in place.

Price ran straight into the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high on the ceasefire rally and stalled there cleanly. That is the level the market knew about. The new bearish TnT has been generated on both instruments with the updated scoring system flagging normal confidence but with a warning attached – the bullish MACD-v extreme means the setup could resolve sideways or snap back bullish rather than delivering a clean bear target. The gap from Wednesday’s open remains below current price and gaps tend to fill eventually – the question is timing. Trades are on but profits and stops are on a tight leash. This is not a chase setup.

SPX Analysis

Bearish below 6,753. Price stalled at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high. Warning grade. MACD-v at bullish extreme. Gap below. 2-DTE Friday trade on tight leash. Target 6,474.

The chart is telling an honest story. Yesterday’s move ran exactly to the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high and stopped. That is not a coincidence – it is the level where institutional sellers have been positioned since the highs. The TnT has flipped bearish below 6,753 with a PFZ of 6,793 and a target of 6,474. The warning grade reflects the MACD-v situation – it is at a bullish extreme, which means the market is not exhausted to the upside, and a sideways chop or snap back like 2 April remains a live scenario. The gap from yesterday’s open sits below and will want to fill at some point. The 2-DTE Friday expiry trade is positioned for the move but sitting with a tight leash.

Current Status: Bearish Below 6,753 / PFZ 6,793 / Target 6,474 / Warning Grade / 2-DTE Friday

Gamma Exposure

Aggregate GEX +3.60B and strongly positive. Flip point 6,557. Both put wall and call wall at 7,000. IV dropped to 16.80% – below historic vol for the first time since the conflict began. Stabilizing environment firmly in place.

This is the most positive GEX reading of the conflict by a considerable margin. The aggregate line has moved from -3.60B at the depths of the sell-off to +3.60B after Wednesday’s session – a full 7.2B swing in aggregate gamma. IV at 16.80% is now below historic volatility of 17.30% – that inversion has not been present since before February 28. IV Percentile dropped to 76% from 85% yesterday and 96% two weeks ago. In this environment dealers are aggressively stabilizing – buying dips and selling rallies. That mechanical action is partly responsible for the overnight futures giving back some of the Wednesday gains. The put wall and call wall have converged at 7,000, creating a defined upper reference. The flip point at 6,557 is well below current price, confirming the strongly positive gamma regime is intact.

Current Status: Aggregate GEX +3.60B / flip point 6,557 / put wall 7,000 / call wall 7,000 / IV 16.80% below HV / IV Percentile 76% / strongly stabilizing

RUT Analysis

Similar picture to SPX – bearish below 2,617, PFZ 2,636, target 2,481. Warning grade. MACD-v at bullish extreme. Shorter-dated trade taken on tight leash. Gap below.

RUT ran the same story yesterday – big ceasefire rally stalling at a meaningful resistance level, TnT flipping bearish on the new scoring system with a warning grade attached. The MACD-v is at a bullish extreme on RUT as well, mirroring SPX. Target of 2,481 is the bear objective but the tight leash applies here too – this is a managed position not a set-and-forget. The gap from yesterday’s open below current price will eventually demand attention.

Current Status: Bearish Below 2,617 / PFZ 2,636 / Target 2,481 / Warning Grade / 2-DTE

Post Trade DeBriefing – 8 Apr 2026

SPX: No premium popper trade. The new scoring system flagged a low confidence level on the session. Half size or leave it was the decision framework. I chose to leave it in the group session. The subsequent sideways grind confirmed that was the right call. Penny saved is a penny earned. The new scoring system is doing its job.

Rounding Off

The Ceasefire Has Cracks Iran’s parliament speaker flagged three ceasefire clause breaches before breakfast. The IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic was halted again after Israel struck Lebanon overnight. Iran’s position is that the Israeli action voids the terms of the two-week pause. This is not the same as the ceasefire failing – but it is not the clean two-week window markets were pricing on Wednesday night. The deal-or-no-deal question is live again before the first full session of the ceasefire period has even completed.

Stagflation Warning From The Fed FOMC minutes from March confirmed what was already suspected: growth slowing, inflation sticky, the committee is threading an uncomfortable needle. One cut penciled for 2026. Powell’s term expires May 23 with Kevin Warsh the frontrunner for the chair. The institutional uncertainty at the Fed is the background hum that does not go away regardless of what happens at Hormuz.

The Gap Wednesday’s session opened with a substantial gap higher from Tuesday’s close. That gap is sitting below current price. Gaps have a tendency to fill. This is a big one. The question is not whether – it is when. The bearish TnT targets are partly a reflection of this mechanical reality rather than a conviction bear call.

PCE Today, CPI Tomorrow PCE at 8:30am ET today. CPI tomorrow – the first print to capture Iran’s full energy surge period. JPMorgan still projects a 3.4% headline jump from 2.4%. Whether the ceasefire changes anything for that number: it does not – the survey period was during the war. The inflation data arriving this week describes a world that no longer quite exists, but the Fed still has to respond to it.

Current Status: Ceasefire cracks / Iran parliament three breaches / Hormuz halted again / PCE today / CPI Friday / bearish TnT both instruments / warning grade / gap below / tight leash

Expert Insights

Used here not as a bear market call but as a commentary on the level where price stopped. The anchored bearish VWAP from the year high is where the sellers who were positioned from the highs have been waiting. Yesterday’s ceasefire rally ran straight to them and paused.

The rightful owners of the resistance level showed up exactly where the chart said they would be. The new bearish TnT and the warning grade are the honest acknowledgement that the bulls have not yet resolved that level. They may. But not without a fight.

[Source: J.P. Morgan – widely attributed across financial history records – public domain]

1 – Iran’s claim that Israel’s Lebanon strike voids the ceasefire terms introduces a third-party invalidation mechanism that was not part of the original Pakistan-brokered framework. The bilateral ceasefire between the US and Iran does not formally include Israel as a signatory. [Source: Pakistan Foreign Ministry ceasefire announcement, 7 April 2026, public | Reuters, Iran IRGC statement, 8 April 2026, public]. Iran’s use of Israeli action as a voiding trigger is either a genuine legal position under their ceasefire interpretation or a diplomatic maneuver to renegotiate terms under cover of a technicality. The market cannot distinguish between the two from the outside. The Hormuz halt is real regardless of the legal argument.

2 – IV dropping below historic volatility for the first time since the conflict began is a mechanical regime shift that has specific implications for options pricing and dealer positioning. When implied volatility falls below realized volatility, options are priced cheaper than recent price movement implies – which creates buying opportunity for long volatility positions and compresses the war risk premium that has been embedded in prices since February 28. [Source: SpotGamma GEX data, $SPX Gamma Exposure, 8 April 2026, spotgamma.com, public | CBOE VIX methodology, cboe.com, public]. The ceasefire cracks appearing this morning are occurring in a mechanical environment where the market has already removed most of the fear premium. If Hormuz halts again durably, the repricing back into elevated IV will be faster than the initial removal was.

3 – The FOMC minutes’ stagflation characterization alongside a single 2026 cut projection creates a specific Fed communication problem for the April 28 meeting. Those minutes were written before the ceasefire, before oil’s 16% drop, and before the renewed Hormuz uncertainty this morning. [Source: Federal Reserve FOMC March 2026 minutes, federalreserve.gov, public]. The April 28 meeting will need to acknowledge a dramatically changed oil picture while also noting that the ceasefire appears fragile. A Fed that communicated stagflation concern two weeks ago is now facing both a 16% oil drop and a possible re-escalation in the same week. The communication challenge is considerable.

Beep.

In Other News…

Yesterday: Dow +2.85%, S&P +2.51%, Nasdaq +2.80%, WTI -16%, best session since April 2025.

This morning: Iran’s parliament flagged three ceasefire clause breaches. The IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic was halted again after Israel struck Lebanon. Iran says that voids the terms. Futures are down 0.22%.

The two-week pause is twelve hours old and already has cracks in it.

Price stalled yesterday exactly at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high. The chart, as usual, knew where the sellers were.

Delta beat Q1 revenue estimates and guided Q2 below expectations. Jet fuel costs remain elevated despite oil’s drop – the ceasefire is twelve hours old, not twelve weeks. FOMC minutes warned of stagflation. PCE arrives this morning. CPI arrives tomorrow. The inflation data describes a world that was at war when the survey was taken. The Fed has to respond to it regardless.

The gap from Wednesday’s open is sitting below current price. It is a big gap. Gaps like to fill. The question is timing.

Percy Peanut has reviewed the ceasefire breach announcement. Percy is neutral on third-party ceasefire invalidation mechanisms. The press-pass pigeon has noted that Percy’s provisional positive position review, initiated yesterday, has been paused pending clarity on the breach claims. Percy considers this appropriate. The neutrality position is being held in reserve. It may be needed again.

Fun Fact:

The concept of a ceasefire being voided by the actions of a third party has precedent in conflict history, though international law on the subject is genuinely contested. Most ceasefire agreements are bilateral instruments between the primary parties – they do not automatically extend to or bind allied or proxy actors.

When a third party’s actions trigger a clause breach claim, the legal question becomes whether the primary signatory bears responsibility for their ally’s conduct. In the US-Iran context, the question of whether Israel’s actions in Lebanon could be considered an extension of US military activity – and therefore a breach by Washington – is exactly the kind of interpretive argument that keeps international law scholars occupied and ceasefire negotiations extended.

The short version: it depends on what the text of the agreement actually says, and nobody outside the room has seen the text yet.

[Source: International Committee of the Red Cross – ceasefire agreements and international humanitarian law, icrc.org, public |
Oppenheim’s International Law (9th edition), public academic reference]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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