Crypto Joins The Briefing. The Big Bull Hits 7,500. Dow And Russ Are Skiving.

The 1999 flashback continues for S&P and Naz. Dow and Uncle Russ continue to stall.

Pre-market we are seeing another pre-market new all-time highs for the first two. The latter two continue to have a communal smoke behind the bike sheds.

What’s interesting is BTC, which is breaking back into its rising range.

Looking at the finer details:
SPX continues its big bull swing.
Huge GEX node at 7,500 and a minor one at 7,450 marking off the new potential low for the day and high for the day.
Any more guesses as to direction? Answers on a postcard. Prize is bragging rights, lol.

RUT looks more normalized in this market of insanity.

Big spike on Tuesday. Inside day Wednesday. Thursday, whichever side of the inside day breaks first is often a false break.
Given the Tag ‘n Turn remains bearish, I’d expect a HOD break over yesterday, then a bear move lower.

BTC: new kid on the analysis block.
As I’m finally now sucking it up and dipping my toes in the crypto corner, we have two overlapping patterns developing. Triangle pattern, which could be evolving into a descending channel on the 4hr charts. I am bearish and looking for a move lower. That said, we could well see the consolidation evolve more. As always, we only know what it’s called after the fact.

The daily chart shows a break back into the larger range. Price would need to push back above $82k before I’d consider bullish positions again.

In the wider world:
Cisco +17% after hours on a Q3 beat and an announcement it will cut close to 4,000 jobs, the AI era’s preferred way of celebrating earnings.
Brent $106 with Hormuz still closed, ten weeks in. PPI +1.4% month-over-month yesterday, hottest since March 2022. CME Fed cut odds for all of 2026 now at 3%. Hike odds 36%. Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Jensen Huang in tow. Retail Sales 8:30 ET. Applied Materials after the close.

Market Briefing:

Thursday 14 May.

• Wednesday close: SPX 7,460.04 / NazQuack 29,693 / both fresh ATH / Dow lagging / SOX +64% since late March

• Thursday pre-market: ES 7,489 (+0.09%) NATHs / NQ 29,580.50 (+0.15%) NATHs / RTY 2,849.9 (-0.08%) / YM 49,952 (+0.11%)

• 30-minute SPX: Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267.09 / PFZ 7,231.3 / Target Pending / NATHs 7,460.04 / GEX 7,500 huge spike / GEX 7,450 minor

• 30-minute RUT: Bearish Below 2,881.69 / PFZ 2,888.21 / Target 2,790.2 / inside day Wednesday / first break often false / HOD break expected then lower

• 4hr BTC: triangle or descending channel forming / bearish on pattern / daily needs $82k for bullish positions / current 79,782

• Cisco +17% AH on Q3 beat ($1.06 vs $1.04 EPS / $15.84B vs $15.56B rev) + announcement of ~4,000 job cuts starting today

• Doximity -18% on guidance shortfall

• PPI +1.4% m/m / hottest since March 2022 / 10Y 4.46% within sight of year’s high

• CME 2026 cut odds: 3% / hike odds: 36% / market noticed and did not react

• Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Jensen Huang in tow

• Retail Sales 8:30 ET / Applied Materials after close

• Brent $106 / WTI $101 / Hormuz still closed 10 weeks in / OPEC cut 2026 demand forecast to 1.2M bbl/d

• GEX: 7,500 huge dominant / 7,450 minor / Call wall 7,400 / Put wall 7,400 / IV 15.07% / IVP 66%

Market Snapshot

• ES: 7,489 / +0.09% / NATHs again

• YM: 49,952 / +0.11% / Dow tagging at last week’s range top

• NQ: 29,580.50 / +0.15% / NATHs

• RTY: 2,849.9 / -0.08% / behind the bike sheds

• GC: 4,706.9 / +0.21% / range-bound

• CL: 101.90 / +0.89% / Brent ~$106

• VIX: 17.85 / -0.17% / contained

• BTC: 79,685 / +0.50% / breaking back into rising range

Tag ‘n Turn

SPX: Big bull swing continues. GEX 7,500 huge node above. GEX 7,450 minor below. Dealers have framed the day.

RUT: Inside-day setup. First break often a false break. TnT remains bearish. HOD break over yesterday then bear move lower expected.

BTC: Triangle or descending channel on 4hr. Bearish on the pattern. Daily needs $82k for bullish positions.

SPX is in dealer hands today. 7,500 the major node above, 7,450 the minor below. Those are the brackets.

RUT is the cleaner directional read. Inside-day setups print one false break before the real move. The bearish TnT bias says the HOD pop over Wednesday’s high is the false break, then the bear move resumes.

BTC joining the desk for the first time. 4hr triangle is the cleaner read with the descending-channel variation in play. Bearish below $82k on the daily.

SPX Analysis

Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267.09. NATHs 7,460.04. Big bull swing intact. Pre-market printing another fresh NATH at ES 7,489.

The big bull swing continues. The Bullish Above (Flipped) status reads from the info box at 7,267.09. PFZ Level 7,231.3. Target Pending.

Pre-market ES at 7,489 has cleared Wednesday’s NATH 7,460.04 and is now pushing toward the 7,500 GEX node.

Bull thesis outside the range. Bear thesis inside. Price outside, bullish.

Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267.09 / PFZ 7,231.3 / Target Pending / NATHs 7,460.04 / ES pre-market 7,489

Gamma Exposure

7,500 huge dominant node. 7,450 minor node. Dealers have framed today’s high/low. Both call wall and put wall at 7,400.

The GEX field has resolved upward again. 7,500 is now the dominant gamma spike by some margin, the largest single-strike concentration on the chart. 7,450 sits as a minor secondary node.

The structure frames today’s potential range: 7,450 as the lower bracket, 7,500 as the upper bracket. Dealer-hedging mechanics define both edges.

Call wall and put wall both 7,400. Gamma flip 6,684.08. IV 15.07% / IVP 66% / IV Rank 28.08% / HV 10.72%.

RUT Analysis

Bearish Below 2,881.69. PFZ 2,888.21. Target 2,790.2. Inside day Wednesday. First break often a false break. HOD break expected then lower.

RUT is behaving normally in a market of insanity. Big spike Tuesday. Inside day Wednesday.

Thursday’s setup is a classic inside-day false-break scenario. Whichever side breaks first is often the false break before the real move develops the other direction. Given the TnT remains bearish below 2,881.69 with target at 2,790.2, the expected sequence is a HOD pop over Wednesday’s high, then a bear move lower as the false break fades.

Bull thesis outside the range. Bear thesis inside. Price inside, bearish.

Current Status: Bearish Below 2,881.69 / PFZ 2,888.21 / Target 2,790.2 / NATHs 2,888.61 / inside-day false-break setup

BTC Analysis

4hr: Triangle or descending channel forming. Bearish on the pattern. Daily: break back into the larger rising range. Above $82k needed for bullish positions.

BTC joins the analysis block. The 4hr chart shows two overlapping patterns. A triangle that could be evolving into a descending channel. The Head & Shoulders sequence earlier in the run is now well in the past. Current price 79,782 with the triangle apex sitting just above.

The 4hr read is bearish. Looking for a move lower toward Triangle Target 1 at $76,459. That said, consolidation could evolve further and the pattern morph again. We only know what it’s called after the fact.

The daily chart shows price breaking back into the larger rising range. The structural read says the channel is intact. For bullish positions to make sense, price needs to push back above $82k.

Current Status: 4hr triangle/descending channel / bearish below $82k / Triangle Target 1 $76,459 / daily back inside rising range

Rounding Off

Twin records, again. SPX and NazQuack both closed Wednesday at fresh ATH. ES and NQ already at fresh NATHs in pre-market. The SOX is up 64% since late March, a move usually reserved for things that have not already moved 64%.

Cisco’s celebration. +17% after hours on a Q3 beat ($1.06 vs $1.04 / $15.84B vs $15.56B). The other half of the announcement: close to 4,000 job cuts beginning today. The AI era’s preferred way of celebrating earnings.

The data the tape ignored. PPI +1.4% m/m yesterday, hottest since March 2022. 10Y at 4.46%, within sight of the year’s high. CME 2026 rate-cut odds: 3%. Hike odds: 36%. The market noticed and did not react.

Trump-Xi today. Beijing meeting with Jensen Huang in tow. Retail Sales 8:30 ET. Applied Materials after the close. Three catalysts, one narrative.

Hormuz still closed. Ten weeks in. Brent $106. OPEC cut its 2026 demand forecast to 1.2M bbl/d. The IEA, with restraint approaching British, warned of “greater volatility ahead.”

Current Status: Twin records intact / chip cycle SOX +64% since late March / PPI hottest since 2022 / Fed cut odds 3% / Trump-Xi-Jensen in Beijing today / Retail Sales 8:30

Expert Insights

The data and the price are now publicly disagreeing. PPI is the hottest since 2022. The 2026 cut odds are at 3%. Hike odds are at 36%. The 10-year is at 4.46%. The Federal Reserve has heard the data and decided not to listen. And the equity tape has decided to buy chips.

This is exactly the kind of regime Keynes had in mind. The bond market is positioning for inflation persistence. The Fed is positioning for political pressure. The equity tape is positioning for AI capex. All three positions cannot be right at the same time.

The discipline is to ride what is working, size for what could go wrong, and accept that “I told you so” arrives later than the people who said it expected.

[Source: John Maynard Keynes attribution (oldest documented use 1930s) |
BLS PPI release data, public |
CME FedWatch implied probability data, public]

1 – The SPX GEX field showing a single huge dominant gamma node at 7,500 with a minor node at 7,450, both above current price and the call wall/put wall both anchored at 7,400, represents a dealer-positioning structure where mechanical hedging dynamics define a roughly 50-point range zone for the trading session.

[Source: SpotGamma gamma exposure data, $SPX, 13 May 2026, spotgamma.com].

The asymmetry of having the largest spike above price (rather than at price or below) historically resolves with one of two outcomes within 1-2 sessions: a clean break above 7,500 that unleashes the next major leg, or a rejection that pulls price back to the 7,400 anchor support. The minor 7,450 node sitting between is the early-warning indicator for which way the resolution moves.

2 – The simultaneous configuration of BTC on the 4hr chart showing a triangle pattern that could be morphing into a descending channel, with the daily showing a break back into the larger rising range, represents the kind of pattern-ambiguity that historically resolves only on the breakout candle itself rather than from the geometry alone.

[Source: BTC/USD 4hr and daily price action, Coinbase, public].

The risk-management consequence is that bear positioning requires confirmation below the triangle’s lower boundary, and bull positioning requires confirmation above $82k on the daily. Between those two levels the market is in consolidation and the pattern label remains provisional. The cross-asset implication into the SPX session is that BTC and SPX correlation, when SPX is at the 7,500 GEX bracket and BTC is at a multi-pattern decision point, has historically been weak.

In Other News…

The records hold. The crude burns. The inflation knocks. The Federal Reserve, having heard the data, has decided not to listen.

Wednesday closed with both the S&P and NazQuack at fresh all-time highs. Pre-market today the same two are running for the next. The Dow and Uncle Russ continue to have a communal smoke behind the bike sheds.

Cisco delivered +17% after hours by beating earnings and announcing it will cut close to 4,000 jobs, the AI era’s preferred way of celebrating earnings. Doximity dropped 18% on softer guidance. The bar remains exactly where Cisco set it: beat the print, cut the heads, ring the bell.

PPI printed +1.4% month-over-month, hottest since March 2022. The 10-year at 4.46%, within sight of the year’s high. CME 2026 rate-cut odds: 3%. Hike odds: 36%. The market noticed. It did not react. The Fed dot plot has been read, and the equity tape has decided to buy chips instead.

Brent at $106 with Hormuz still closed, ten weeks in. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day. The IEA warned of “greater volatility ahead,” with restraint approaching British.

Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Jensen Huang in tow. Retail Sales at 8:30 ET. Applied Materials after the close. Three catalysts. One narrative.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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