Break And Trend, Or Break And Fake, The Inside Bar Called Both

Well, the inside bar idea produced a few good trades again.

The Inside Bar Scorecard

Five markets, one idea, and it called them all.

The inside bar told 5 different markets what to do overnight and 4 of them listened, which is a better hit rate than most people manage with their own children.

Coming into today’s session we can again see prices turning around overnight.

• RUT — IB high and low taken, in that order.

• Dow — high taken. Looking more like the breakout for the moment.

• ES and NQ — lows taken first, and starting to see today’s overnight moves push higher.

• Crude — we expected the IB to break and trend, which it’s now doing overnight.

• BTC — IB break and fake completed nicely.

Overall the idea working out nicely, producing some nice intraday profits again.

Worth being precise about the two behaviours there, because they are not the same trade. Crude was break and trend. BTC was break and fake. One keeps going, the other turns round and comes back. The inside bar sets up both, and which one you get is the whole question.

Market Snapshot – Volatility withdrawn until further notice.

Volatility has been withdrawn from the stock indexes. No date has been given for its return.

• ES 7,696.75, +0.29%. Lows taken first, now pushing higher.

• YM 53,618, +0.19%. High taken, see above.

• NQ 29,305.25. Same as ES.

• RTY 3,015.9, +0.35%. Took both sides.

• VIX 15.76, -0.51%. 16 still the line, still not there.

• GC 4,683.8, -0.56%. Off the new high.

• CL 83.29, -1.99%. Breaking and trending, see below.

• BTC/USD 79,876.55. New recent highs, see below.

SPX – Bullish, barely, and the air has gone out of it again.

Over on the Tag n Turn swings, SPX remains bullish and not quite flipping to the bear side, which is what the failure point’s job is doing right.

Volatility is once again being sucked out of price movement and the Bollinger Bands are once again squeezing tight. The 3 day average remains around 50 points.

And I once again can’t wait for the markets to open up. Even just slightly would take the suck out of the grind.

Crude Oil – The ignition switch, doing exactly what it advertised.

CL, crude oil’s chart is doing what we thought. The IB behaving like an ignition switch for the next movement.

And we are seeing the overnight moves pop and drop from the 1SD VWAP to the VWAP band.

Price movements are certainly looking a little spicy overnight.

To be clear on the call, since it ran a few days: the expectation was break and trend, as opposed to break out and fake out like BTC. Directionally we were anticipating a possible bull break, but waiting for price to actually break to get the party started.

Crypto – Broke the low, faked it, and came back in.

Crypto’s BTC providing the opportunity for me also, with the IB low breaks first and looking for that to be a fake break, which it was.

And a simple move back into the inside bar’s range. A break back into the range, just the opposite to a breakout, provides the ignition to join the party.

New recent highs are made and looking for the next moves to develop.

Could this be the start of the next big push to new all time highs? Time, as always, will tell all.

Premium Poppers – Two trades, a floor that held, and a tent that didn’t.

RUT gave the classic 1st breakout and locked $154 as the profit floor, with the potential for $654 in the center of the tent. SPX ran 3 trades testing the new VWAP entries, carried a $280 worst case all day, and closed with $220. The last 10 minutes took me out of the RUT tent and secured the SPX profit in the same move.

Awesome work, all of you. And ehvpsd, nice to see you get a good win on the Wall of Wins.

Trade well,

T2 Markets

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