Black Monday Was Called. The S&P Boofed 40 Points Higher. The Bear Isn’t Done Yet.

Over the weekend there was call for a Black Monday, as we are on the 19th Oct and an anniversary of its namesake.

We asked 3 traders how they planned to mark the occasion. “Short everything.” “Bunker.” “I bought the open. Sorry, is that not what we’re doing?”

The Make Monday Black Again campaign had the placards printed and the megaphone charged by Sunday night. The megaphone is now on eBay, barely used.

That said, nothing going crazy in the overnight moves since Asia opened, and actually it’s a big boof higher for the S&P, up around 40-50 points at the time of typing.

Dow and Russell remain heavy, so I suspect the bear moves are not quite over yet.

Market Snapshot

Here’s where the overnight session has us.

• S&P futures (ES): 7,741.75, +0.50%. Holding the overnight gains.

• Uncle Dow (YM): 52,223, +0.04%. Barely moved.

• NazQuack (NQ): 29,705.50, +1.07%. Leading the overnight bounce.

• Uncle Russ (RTY): 2,747.5, +0.38%. A small lift.

• Gold: 4,191.3, +0.11%. Quiet.

• Crude Oil: 98.08, -0.97%. Section below.

• VIX: 18.71, -6.36%. Section below.

• Bitcoin: 82,848.31, +0.99%. Section below.

SPX – A glorious bear move from the upper to the lower range.

SPX pulled a glorious bear move from the upper to the lower range we have been watching.

I chose to close out my weekend early and left the bull TnT setup, and given the 40+ point move higher a few members are already reporting premarket profits, thanks to the global trading hours we can manage those moves a lot better than we did 6 months ago.

Some of the cash indexes like SPX and RUT now have extended global trading hours, so some of these bigger overnight moves can be managed or traded without waiting for the regular market opening hours.

Managed or traded without waiting for the open.

VIX – Or should I say VIXen.

VIX, or should I say VIXen, has been a tease, flirting with 16, then 18, then 16, and then Friday’s bear moves gave the markets the brief weekend kegger that we discussed last week, still remaining elevated for the moment.

VIXen, 18ish. Likes: Fridays, weekend keggers, being looked at. Dislikes: commitment above 19.

19 remains the new line to cross for the bear moves to get serious again. At the very least the volatility increase means the intraday moves are opening up, so bull or bear we should see some interesting moves throughout the day… did I just jinx it? Ah bugger!

Bull or bear, the intraday moves are opening up.

Crude Oil – Staying contained inside its tight rising channel.

Crude oil continues to look great, staying contained inside its tight rising channel but also breaking out of the larger range and just hitting a ceiling at the YTD 1SD VWAP line at $99.

We could find a floor at the July low 1SD VWAP line at $96, so we could bobble between these two levels, which conveniently also lines up with the rising channel lows and highs.

A $96 floor and a $99 ceiling

Bitcoin – From the range lows to the range highs.

Bitcoin, currently the only thing in the building doing as it’s told, has asked not to be made an example of.

BTC, Bitcoin, continues to behave nicely, also pushing from the range lows to the range highs, and I’m still targeting a move to $84.8k. The bear assessment remains below the $79.5k level.

Still targeting $84.8k.

Premium Poppers and Wall of Wins

Friday

• Don E.: “Closed RUT BO1 for 45%; also took SPX BO1 but exited early for small loss before this latest bullish reversal (phew); DOJI candles prompted me to be safe than sorry and get out.” Then: “Closed RUT LP Bear for 45%”

• James D.: “Would have taken the RUT PP for a win if TT hadn’t been mucking around

• Took the SPX PP Bear….. but I’m holding and hoping….” Then: “Phew hung on and closed my SPX bear for a small profit as a) I’m heading out so can’t monitor it b) was determined to finish the week on a win, even a small one!”

• Scott K.: “Closed RUT BO1 for ~ 45%, Transformed SPX BO1 for ~50%”

• Don E.: “Stepped away from my computer and missed the SPX LP breakout, oh well, have a good weekend all” To which I said: “have fun”

• Steve R. posted his day’s P/L, 6,255.53, with one word: “BOING!”

• Jenny D.: “Today was a good day

• 80% on orb60 for spx & rut. Done early and now waiting for my mother in law and her new 90 year old boyfriend to visit for the weekend

• This morning

• James D.: “Nice surprise this morning SPX TnT cashed in at 50%!”

  
  

  Meme of the Day:

  

Trade well,

T2 Markets

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