Bear TnTs Fire As Called, Poppers Deliver Full Bag, BTC Breaks

Morning team. Monday turned out to be exactly as discussed.

Markets gapping higher, VIX not pushing lower was one clue. Daily charts on the futures showed inside days, and typically my first thought is that the side that breaks first is a false direction, with the real move often to the other side of the inside bar. We noted this same setup last week too. The VIX today was a bonus.

On top of that, all the setups — Tag n Turn and Premium Poppers — fired off bearish. So, the data wins again.

Coming into today’s session there is little excitement overnight, other than NazQuack continuing to slide lower, likely driven by the air coming out of the AI bubble a little. The other three stock indexes are doing very little to give us a suggestion of what the main session may hold. I am inclined toward still being bearish.

Market Snapshot

Overnight tape: NazQuack keeps sliding on the AI air-release, the other three stock indexes drifting, VIX ticking up, crude down at the over/under line, and BTC broken below its range.

• ES (SPX): 7,441.50 / -0.16% / bear TnT fired, back in the range zone, full read below

• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,478 / +0.09% / drifting

• NQ (NazQuack): 28,000.75 / -0.74% / air coming out of the AI bubble

• RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,959.10 / -0.06% / new bear TnT, bear flag, full read below

• VIX: 18.90 / +1.18% / ticking up, no fear-lift yet

• GC (Gold): 4,043.70 / -0.86% / off yesterday’s bounce

• CL (Crude): 80.25 / -2.03% / at the $80-$81 over/under, full read below

• BTC: 63,344.90 / -0.55% / lower high came good, range breakout, full read below

SPX: Bear TnT Fires As Called, Back Into The Range Zone

Over on the SPX swings, the gap higher produced the bear TnT setup as anticipated, and ran straight into some profit lovin’. We are back into that prior range zone from last week, and with the bollinger bands compressing we may see price grind out here again.

I remain bearish and expect that to continue. As a premium seller, as long as I am not wrong, I will still get paid.

Bear TnT fired. Grinding the range. Premium keeps rolling in.

Uncle Russ: New Bear TnT Grinds Out, Looks Like A Bear Flag

RUT swing also fired off a new bear and is also grinding out. This looks a little more like a bear flag to me.

In both cases I remain bearish and expect that to continue. As always, as a premium seller, as long as I am not wrong, I will still get paid.

New bear TnT. Bear flag forming. Premium seller wins.

Crude Oil: At The $80-$81 Over/Under, Direction Decides Here

Crude oil keeps dipping, and at some point you have to decide: is the dip over, or is there a bear move we need to look at more closely?

Crude oil futures are at that over/under level. Bullish above approx $81, and bears below $80.

Above $81 bull. Below $80 bear. Simple.

Bitcoin: Lower High Came Good, Range Breaks Down Toward $61k-$60k

The lower high mentioned yesterday came good, and price sold off mostly overnight. As I am already bearish, there is little to do but wait it out.

The $63.5k level has been reached, which is also now a breakout of the channel I was trading. The daily range looks like it is now in play, and a new target down towards $61k-$60k.

Lower high delivered. Channel broken. $61k-$60k next.

From The Desk: Full Bag Day On The Poppers

Yesterday’s Premium Poppers did not disappoint at all. Crystal clear setups. Pain-free movements.

The trader community smashed the results yet again — everyone got a full bag.

Crystal clear setups. Full bag day.

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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