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- Bear Scare. No Follow Through. VIX U-Turn. RUT Flips Bullish. PopPop. | SPX Market Briefing | 30 Dec 2025
Bear Scare. No Follow Through. VIX U-Turn. RUT Flips Bullish. PopPop. | SPX Market Briefing | 30 Dec 2025
Monday’s Bear Scare Had Little To No Follow Through VIX U-Turned And Allayed Those Bear Fears
T2 Markets
December 30, 2025
Well, that was anticlimactic.
After Monday’s bear scare, it seems there was little to no follow through. Although the RUT premium popper did pull that bear premium (again) right at the opening bell.
VIX U-turned and allayed those bear fears.
Today it seems likely that the monumental Santa Rally – coming in at an average of 1.3% – could be on.
Which for premium sellers is not too bad.
As long as prices don’t move down significantly – we still get paid.
As we looked at in yesterday’s morning briefing – it’s when we don’t see this teeny tiny Santa Rally that’s the real setup. The warning signal. The foreboding.
Keep scrolling for RUT’s 97.4% win rate on Premium Poppers…
Bear scares come and go. The process stays the same.
SPX Doesn’t Need You To Be Right. Just Consistent.
Pulse bar tells you when. Credit spreads handle the rest.
Market Briefing:
Current Multi-Market Status:
SPX: 6,905.73 – Bull TnT – Bullish Above 6800.08, PFZ 6720.43, Target 6952.93
RUT: 2,519.80 – Bull TnT (FLIPPED!) – Bullish Above 2518.6, PFZ 2515.66, Target 2564.23
ES: 6,955.00
NQ: 25,742.75
YM: 48,758
RTY: 2,540.2
VIX: 14.46 (U-turn from uptick)
GC: 4,393.2
CL: 58.34 / 55.12
BTC: 93,161.86 / 87,847.34
Yesterday’s Action
Wicks on the lower portion of yesterday’s activity suggest a neutral to bullish day ahead.
The bear scare tried. The bear scare failed. Moving on.
The Swing Status
SPX: Remains firmly bullish. No change. Target 6952.93 still in sight.
RUT: Has developed a new setup. The bear swing was profitable and now flips to a new bull swing setup – just in time for said rally.
Both swings now bullish. Aligned. Ready.
Here’s the thing about premium selling during the Santa Rally period:
As long as prices don’t move down significantly – we still get paid.
Theta decay doesn’t care if the market goes up 1.3% over 7 days. It just keeps eroding option value day after day.
Sideways? Paid.
Slightly up? Paid.
Grinding holiday grind? Paid.
It’s the sharp down moves that hurt. And right now, with VIX U-turning back to calm territory, the market isn’t pricing in any sharp moves.
Looking at the data, RUT is by far the standout winner for my premium popper setups:
97.4% of the bullish setups in the last 30 days turned out to be winners.
That’s 37 of the last 38 trades.
Just waiting for that opening ding-a-ling-ding.
PopPop.
Fun Fact:
In sideways or gently bullish markets, premium sellers profit from theta decay eating away at option value – regardless of small price moves. The Santa Rally’s average 1.3% gain over 7 days is theta heaven.
Everyone bangs on about the Santa Rally like it’s some massive profit opportunity. 1.3% average over 7 days. Whoop-de-doo. But for premium SELLERS? It’s bloody paradise. Here’s the secret: we don’t need the market to do anything spectacular.
We just need it to NOT collapse. Theta decay – the gradual erosion of option value – works in our favor every single day. Time passes. Premium evaporates. We collect. The Santa Rally period with its low volume, holiday grind, and range-bound action is exactly what premium sellers dream about.
Sharp down moves hurt us. Sideways grinds pay us. Gentle up moves? Still paid. That’s why RUT Premium Poppers have hit 37 of 38 winners (97.4%) in the last 30 days.
The market doesn’t need to rally for us to win. It just needs to NOT collapse. And with VIX at 14.46, the market isn’t pricing in any collapses.
PopPop.
Trade well,
T2 Markets
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