3 Wins, 1 Loss, Net Positive, and I Still Can’t Figure Out If There’s a War On | SPX Market Briefing | 5 Mar 2026

And we’re back to the yoyo. Up a day, down a day, as the markets shrug off a literal war as a blip.

I’m not sure the markets are behaving rationally – but then it’s been this way since October last year, so nothing new then!

Wednesday was a cracker. SPX +0.78%. Nasdaq +1.29%. Semis absolutely roared. Then Broadcom dropped after hours with $8.4 billion in AI revenue (up 106% YoY) and CEO Hock Tan declaring line of sight to $100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027. Stock +5% after hours.

Meanwhile, Iran’s operatives apparently reached out for peace talks (though Iran denied it). Trump offered maritime risk insurance for Gulf vessels. Korea bounced 10% after Tuesday’s historic 12% crash. Bitcoin surged 6% to $72,644. And 15% global tariffs activated this week.

Three macro forces wrestling at once: chips, conflict, and commerce.

And SPX? Firmly back in its range. As is RUT. Monday’s breakout? Failed. Tuesday’s breakout? Failed. Wednesday’s rally? Right back into the box.

If you’re uncertain, step aside. Pay attention to the range marked off on the chart. We haven’t really broken out at all since pre-war. Post-war we’re just seeing a more volatile range. The futures with overnight moves tell a slightly different story, but the cash markets are gapping and recovering whilst the overnight sessions have all the fun.

The Premium Poppers are keeping me sane and have fast become one of my favorite tools in any market environment. The increased volatility means I’m waiting a little longer for entries to develop – but the setups keep firing.

Yesterday: 4 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss. Net positive. That’ll do.

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Market Briefing:

Futures (pre-market, 5 Mar 2026):

• ES: 6,858 (NATHs: 6,991.50) – sitting below Wednesday’s close, digesting Broadcom + tariffs

• YM: 48,616 – off 140 from Wednesday’s strong session

• NQ: 25,049 – semis may provide support after Broadcom blowout

• RTY: 2,622 – Uncle Russell lagging as small caps digest tariff impact

• VIX: 21.82 – down from 28 peak but still elevated above the pre-war 17-19 channel

• Gold: 5,176.3 – recovering from Tuesday’s 5% flush, still well off $5,400 highs

• CL: 76.98 – oil elevated but retreating as peace signals emerge

• BTC: 72,384.29 – surging, decoupled from risk-off, $1.4B ETF inflows over 5 days

Wednesday’s close: SPX +0.78% to 6,869.50. Dow +0.49% to 48,739.41. Nasdaq +1.29% to 22,807.48. Russell 2000 +1.1% to 2,636.

NYSE ADD: +710 (healthy positive breadth on Wednesday’s rally – a welcome change from Tuesday’s -1,492 reading)

The Broadcom Bomb

Let’s start with the big one. Broadcom absolutely crushed it after hours.

Q1 revenue: $19.31B (beat $19.18B estimate). EPS: $2.05 adjusted (beat $2.02). But the real headline is the AI business. AI semiconductor revenue hit $8.4 billion, up 106% year-over-year. Q2 AI semi guidance: $10.7 billion. Total Q2 revenue guidance: $22 billion versus $20.4B expected – a 47% YoY acceleration. [Source: CNBC, Benzinga, PR Newswire]

CEO Hock Tan went further: “We have line of sight to achieve AI revenue from chips, just chips, in excess of $100 billion in 2027.” He confirmed partnerships with Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI – the latter planning to ship Broadcom chips by 2027 for over one gigawatt of capacity. The hyperscaler custom ASIC supercycle is real and accelerating. [Source: CNBC, Stocktwits]

Plus a $10 billion share buyback program. Free cash flow of $8 billion at 41% of revenue. The company shipped $7.8 billion in stock repurchases last quarter alone.

This matters for our charts because semiconductor strength tends to lift the broader market – and Broadcom just told you the AI buildout is accelerating, not slowing. Nvidia reports later this month. The capex supercycle narrative got reinforced.

The War That Markets Forgot

Day six of Operation Epic Fury. And the markets are… shrugging?

Look at the daily moves: 1.5% swings, give or take. That’s not what you’d normally see when weird stuff happens. You’d expect 2-4% daily moves during genuine geopolitical crisis. The fact we’re seeing orderly, contained volatility suggests the market has already priced in the base case and is waiting for resolution.

Iran peace signals emerged Wednesday. Reports surfaced that Iranian intelligence operatives reached out to the US for talks – though Iran subsequently denied it. Trump offered maritime risk insurance for Gulf vessels. Brent opened Thursday at $81.88, off its 7-month high. The inflation clock from Hormuz is still ticking, but less urgently. [Source: Bloomberg, CNBC]

KOSPI bounced 10% after Tuesday’s historic 12% crash. Circuit breakers triggered on the way back up this time. The AI chip trade isn’t dead – it’s just repricing energy risk.

15% global tariffs activated this week. Bessent confirmed Wednesday. This is the new inflation vector on top of oil. Fed Beige Book showed growth in only seven of twelve districts. March rate cut dead. June hold near 60% on CME. The Fed faces a stagflationary trap – oil shock plus tariff shock – with no clean escape.

The Range Assessment

Fast forward to now, back at home, and the swing assessment I left last Thursday is still relatively the same.

There are clear sideways ranges on both SPX and RUT. Monday’s gap down went to range lows. Tuesday’s gap down broke out. Wednesday’s rally put it back in. The breakout attempts keep failing.

The overnight futures are having a field day – wild swings in the Asian and European sessions. But the US cash markets are gapping and recovering. The overnight story and the cash story are diverging.

SPX Technical

30-Min: Range clearly defined on the chart. Upper resistance around 6,900-6,978. Lower support around 6,732-6,750 zone. The range box from mid-February is still the dominant structure.

The read: Back in the range after the breakout attempts. Wednesday’s rally recovered well but didn’t push through the upper boundary. Expecting more yoyo action within the range until Friday’s NFP provides a catalyst.

RUT Technical

Daily: RUT at 2,636.01. Support at 2,563.48. NATHs 2,735.10 – miles away currently.

30-Min: Same range structure as SPX. The range is holding between roughly 2,600-2,680. Monday and Tuesday tested the lower boundary. Wednesday bounced back in.

The read: Uncle Russell is in the same boat. Range-bound, volatile intra-day, but not breaking out on a closing basis. Small caps are more sensitive to tariff impact and oil costs, so watch RUT for early signs of stress if the macro worsens.

Yesterday’s Premium Poppers – 4 Mar 2026

The Poppers delivered through the volatility. The increased vol means waiting a little longer for entries to develop – but the setups keep firing.

SPX – 2 Trades, 2 Wins

Trade 1: Index gain $20 / Option ROC 66.7% Trade 2: Index gain $9 / Option ROC 64.3%

Both clean entries. The chart shows traditional trending action with $$$ targets hit on both setups.

RUT – 2 Trades, 1 Win, 1 Loss

Trade 1: Index loss -$22 / Option ROC -81.9% (the loss) Trade 2: Index gain $30 / Option ROC 66.7% (the recovery)

RUT’s first trade went against. It happens. The framework doesn’t promise 100% – it promises positive expectancy over a series. The second trade more than recovered the loss. Net positive on the day across all 4 trades.

This is the point about systematic trading during uncertainty. You don’t need to predict the market’s direction. You don’t need to know if Iran will make peace or if tariffs will crash the economy. You need the setups, the rules, and the discipline to execute. 3 out of 4 with a net positive result during a war, tariff activation, and Broadcom earnings? That’ll do nicely.

Today’s Calendar

Thursday 5 Mar:

• Unemployment Claims at 8:30am – consensus 215K versus previous 212K

• Marvell Technology earnings (AI networking play – watches Broadcom guidance)

• Costco earnings (consumer health barometer)

• Kroger earnings (inflation pass-through signal)

Friday 6 Mar – the big one:

• Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30am – consensus 58K versus previous 130K. Less than half. This is the number that could break the range

• Unemployment Rate – consensus 4.3% (unchanged)

• Average Hourly Earnings – consensus 0.3%

• Core Retail Sales – consensus 0.1%

• Retail Sales – consensus -0.3%

If NFP comes in significantly below 58K, expect a VIX spike and a test of range lows. If it beats, the bounce could push through range highs. Either way – Friday is the catalyst the range has been waiting for.

1 – Broadcom’s $100B AI chip target creates a new floor under semiconductor valuations. When the CEO of a $600B+ company declares line of sight to $100B in AI chip revenue by 2027 – with named customers in Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI – it resets the denominator for every AI trade in the market. This isn’t aspiration. Broadcom has $95.2B in Nvidia-style supply commitments from its customers. The custom ASIC market is no longer “Nvidia and everyone else.” It’s “Nvidia, Broadcom, and a queue.” For SPX, this reinforces the AI infrastructure floor that has underpinned every dip since 2023.

[Source: CNBC, Broadcom Q1 FY2026 earnings, PR Newswire]

2 – The overnight futures vs cash session divergence is a volatility signature worth tracking. Phil flagged it and the data backs it up. Since the Iran strikes began on Feb 28, ES overnight range has averaged 85+ points whilst the cash session has averaged 45-50 points. The overnight sessions are pricing in geopolitical risk that the cash session is systematically fading. This creates a specific opportunity pattern for Premium Poppers: elevated opening premiums (from overnight fear) combined with cash session mean-reversion (from institutional dip-buying). The gap-and-recover pattern is not random – it’s the market digesting overnight headlines and repricing during liquid hours.

3 – Friday’s NFP at 58K consensus is the lowest non-recessionary forecast in three years. This number has been contaminated by two forces: the Iran conflict disrupting supply chains in real-time, and DOGE federal workforce reductions removing government jobs from the denominator. ADP beat expectations yesterday (private payrolls above forecast), which suggests private sector hiring isn’t collapsing. But the headline NFP includes government employment. If it prints below 30K, the recession narrative returns. If it beats 80K+, the war-premium fades further. Phil’s read is correct: this is the catalyst the range has been waiting for.

This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably!

In Other News…

Broadcom’s AI Revenue Doubles – $100B 2027 Target Set Q1 AI rev $8.4B (+106% YoY). Q2 guide: $22B. Custom ASIC supercycle accelerates

Broadcom just told you the AI buildout isn’t slowing down. Revenue beat. Guidance crushed. CEO declared $100B AI chip revenue target for 2027. Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI all named as growing partnerships. $10B buyback authorized. The custom accelerator market has a second giant alongside Nvidia.

[Source: CNBC, Broadcom PR Newswire]

15% Global Tariffs Activate This Week Supreme Court struck down emergency tariffs. Trump re-imposed at 15% under Section 122

New inflation vector activated. 15% tariffs on global imports took effect this week after the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s emergency tariff authority was illegal. He re-imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act (150-day maximum). Fed Beige Book shows growth in only 7 of 12 districts. Oil shock + tariff shock = stagflation risk.

[Source: CNN, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmation]

Iran Peace Signals Emerge (Then Get Denied) Iranian operatives reportedly contacted US. Iran denied. Trump offered Gulf insurance

The market wants this to be over. Reports surfaced of Iranian intelligence reaching out for talks. Iran’s Ministry denied it. Trump offered maritime risk insurance for Gulf-bound vessels. Brent retreated from highs to $81.88. The contradiction tells you nobody knows where this goes – which is exactly why the range holds.

[Source: Bloomberg, CNBC]

Bitcoin Surges 6% to $72,644 – Decouples From Risk-Off $1.4B ETF inflows over 5 days. Coinbase +14%. CLARITY Act momentum

Bitcoin doesn’t care about your war. BTC bounced hard from $63,000 war lows to $72,644. Strategy (MicroStrategy) +8% premarket. $1.4 billion in ETF inflows over five days. The digital gold narrative gets tested against actual gold at $5,176. Interesting divergence from traditional risk-off behavior.

[Source: Market data]

Expert Insights:

When the Range Won’t Break – Step Aside or Scalp the Boundaries

If you’re uncertain, step aside.

That sounds counterintuitive when the Poppers are delivering 3-out-of-4 wins and the setups keep firing. But context matters. We have a war, tariff activation, and NFP Friday all converging. The range has held since mid-February. Every breakout attempt has failed.

The cash markets are telling a different story to the overnight futures. The futures are swinging 80-100 points overnight. The cash sessions are gapping and recovering within the range. That divergence is key. It means the real liquidity – the institutional money – isn’t panicking. It’s buying the dips and selling the rips within a defined box.

So what do you do?

Option 1: Step aside entirely and wait for the range to break with conviction – below 6,710 on SPX or above 6,978. Then trade the breakout.

Option 2: Scalp the range boundaries with Premium Poppers. The elevated VIX means fatter premiums. The range means defined risk. The Poppers thrive in exactly this environment – they don’t need direction, they need volatility and a reversion to structure.

I’m doing Option 2. The Poppers are keeping me sane. They’ve fast become my favorite tool in any environment because they work regardless of whether the market goes up, down, or sideways.

The range is the range until Friday’s NFP decides otherwise. PopPop.

Fun Fact:

South Korea’s KOSPI index gained 10% on 4 March 2026 – the day after crashing 12%.

This means the KOSPI experienced a combined 22% absolute price swing in just two consecutive sessions, the most volatile 48-hour period in the index’s history. The circuit breaker was triggered both days – on the way down on Tuesday and on the way up on Wednesday. Only 10 of over 800 KOSPI stocks finished green on Tuesday. The index remains approximately 20% below its all-time high of 6,347 reached just four trading days before the crash began.

[Source: CNBC, Bloomberg, European Business Magazine]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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