2 More Sleeps. VIX At Year Lows. Maximum Complacency Achieved. | SPX Market Briefing | 23 Dec 2025

2 more sleeps!

A quick look at the VIX and you can see we are at the lowest reading this year. Maximum complacency has been reached. Chances of a crash are minimal – or at least the fear of one.

Anyway, moving on.

Very little has changed (again) on the indexes.

Gold is cranking on a new all-time high while Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its importance as a store of wealth.

Let’s see if we get something popping at the open for a little Xmas cheer.

Keep scrolling for what a VIX below 15 actually tells us…
While the fear gauge flatlines, systematic traders just follow the process.

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Market Briefing:

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: 6,878.48 – Bull TnT – Bullish Above 6800.08, PFZ 6720.43, Target 6863.21

• RUT: 2,558.78 – Bull TnT – Bullish Above 2526.78, PFZ 2487.97, Target 2544.16

• ES: 6,934.00

• NQ: 25,717.00

• YM: 48,706

• RTY: 2,573.7

• VIX: 14.04 (Year Low!)

• GC: 4,514.7 (NEW ATH!)

• CL: 58.01 / 55.12

• BTC: 93,161 / 87,371 (Still bleeding)

VIX Year Low – What Does It Mean?

At 14.04, the VIX is at its lowest reading of 2025.

For context, the long-term VIX average is around 19-20. Anything below 15 is considered “extreme calm” – basically the market saying “nothing to see here, move along.”

Does low VIX mean we’re safe? Not exactly.

Low VIX = low fear. Low fear = complacency. Complacency = vulnerability to shocks.

But it also means: no immediate expectation of a crash. The options market isn’t hedging. Nobody’s buying insurance.

The Tale Of Two Assets

Gold: New all-time high at 4,514.7. The real store of wealth doing its thing.

Bitcoin: Down from 100K+ to 87K area. The “digital gold” demonstrating exactly how digital it is during a risk-off period.

Just saying.

The Indexes

Very little has changed. Both swings bullish. Both past their targets. Same range. Different day.

At this point, we’re just waiting for something to pop – either direction.

Calendar

• Today (Tue 23): Prelim GDP q/q 8:30am (Forecast 3.2%, Previous 3.8%)

• Wed 24: Unemployment Claims 8:30am (Forecast 220K)

• Thu 25: Christmas Day

• Fri 26: Boxing Day vibes

Expert Insights:

VIX at year lows – maximum complacency, minimal crash fear. What does this actually mean?

A VIX reading around 14-15 corresponds to roughly 14-15% implied volatility on S&P 500 options over the next 30 days.

Historically, this is well below the long-term average of 19-20. When the VIX is this low, several things are happening: the options market is pricing in calm conditions, traders aren’t hedging aggressively, and put/call skew typically flattens. But here’s the key insight – low VIX doesn’t mean “safe.” It means complacency.

When the VIX collapses to structural lows, forward returns often weaken and the probability of pullbacks increases. Importantly though, the VIX can stay low for months during strong uptrends. It’s not a timing tool – it simply tells us that right now, nobody’s scared. And sometimes, that’s exactly when you should be paying attention.

[Source: TradingView VIX Analysis]

Fun Fact:

VIX At Year Lows: The Complacency Paradox

VIX at 14.04 = lowest reading of 2025. Long-term average = 19-20. Translation: nobody’s scared. Which is precisely when to stay alert.

Here’s the beautiful paradox of the fear gauge – when it’s low, everyone feels safe, which is exactly when you shouldn’t get too comfortable!

The VIX at 14.04 is the market’s way of saying “nothing bad is going to happen.”
The options market isn’t hedging.
Nobody’s buying protection.
Traders are maximally complacent.

Meanwhile, gold just hit an all-time high at 4,514 because apparently the ancient shiny rock that humans have valued for 5,000 years still works.
And Bitcoin? The “digital gold” that was supposed to replace actual gold? Down to 87K whilst regular gold makes new highs. You literally cannot make this up. So we’ve got year-low VIX, all-time high gold, and Bitcoin demonstrating its “store of wealth” properties by storing approximately 13% less wealth than a few weeks ago.

Happy Christmas indeed!

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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